Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, January 3, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Down 3 from Dec. 22
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Rasmussen, Trafalgar-R) to 43% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (up 1 from Dec. 22), putting him at 13 points net negative.
PENNSYLVANIA: SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 2022
Among Republican voters statewide
- Mehmet Oz: 19%
- Kathy Barnette: 8%
- Carla Sands: 7%
- Jeff Bartos: 3%
- Sean Gale: 1%
- Others: 11%
- Undecided: 51%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the seat that Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is vacating. Even though Oz has a lead, this Trafalgar (R) poll shows a majority of Republican primary voters are undecided––which means the fight has yet to begin…. Oz is a cardiothoracic surgeon and is nationally-known for his TV program, The Dr. Oz Show…. Barnette is a political commentator, veteran and former congressional candidate…. Sands is a wealthy businesswoman, former actress and ambassador to Denmark during the Trump administration …. Additional prospects are looking at the race, including David McCormick, a former Undersecretary of the Treasury under Trump…. Democratic candidates include Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb, Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh, State Rep. Malcom Kenyatta and State Sen. Sharif Street (son of the former mayor of Philly).
JANUARY 6: RESPONSIBILITY FOR CAPITOL ATTACK
Among adults nationwide
[Washington Post/Univ. of Md. poll] How much responsibility do you think Donald Trump bears for the attack on the U.S. Capitol?
- Trump responsible a great deal: 43%
- Trump responsible a good amount: 17%
- Trump responsible just some: 14%
- Trump responsible not at all: 24%
[ABC/Ipsos poll] How much responsibility do you think Donald Trump bears for the attack on the U.S. Capitol?
- Trump responsible a great deal: 42%
- Trump responsible a good amount: 16%
- Trump responsible just some: 16%
- Trump responsible not at all: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: Two polls show similar results…. In the Washington Post/UMD poll, 92% of Democrats and 27% of Republicans believe Trump was responsible a great deal or a good amount…. Also of interest:
- It should be noted that 59% of Americans in the Washington Post/UMD poll also believe the news media was responsible a great deal or a good amount for the attack and that 66% believe social media companies were responsible a great deal or a good amount.
- From the ABC/Ipsos poll: “An overwhelming majority (72%) of Americans believe the people involved in the attack on the Capitol were ‘threatening democracy,’ while 1 in 4 Americans believes that the individuals involved were ‘protecting democracy.’ Broken down by party identification, Democrats are nearly unanimous (96%) in believing that those involved in the attacks were threatening democracy. Republicans are more split, with 45% saying it was a threat and 52% saying those involved in the riot were protecting democracy.’”
VIOLENT PROTESTS
Among adults nationwide
Do you think it is ever justified for citizens to take violent action against the government, or is it never justified?
Violence justified: 34%
Violence never justified: 62%
RON’S COMMENT: Those saying violence can be justified went up from 9% in 1995 to 34% now …. Party divide: The new survey shows that 40% of Republicans, 41% of independents and 23% of Democrats say violence is sometimes justified.
PRIDE IN DEMOCRACY
Among adults nationwide
How proud are you of the way democracy works in America – very proud, somewhat proud, not very proud, or not at all proud?
- Very proud: 11%
- Somewhat proud: 43%
- Not too proud: 31%
- Not proud at all: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: While a majority (54%) of Americans are at least “somewhat proud” of the way democracy works in this country, only 11% are “very proud,” less than those who are “not proud at all” (14%)…. 60% of Democrats, 58% of Republicans and 51% of independents are “very” or “somewhat” proud of democracy.
BIDEN’S 2020 WIN
Among adults nationwide
Regardless of whom you supported in the 2020 election, do you think Joe Biden election as president was legitimate, or was he not legitimately elected?
Legitimate: 69%
Not legitimate: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: A big majority believe Biden was the legitimate winner…. But: 58% of Republicans think Biden’s win was not legitimate…. While 68% of all Americans polled think there was no solid evidence of widespread voter fraud in 2020, 62% of Republicans say there was solid evidence…. Looking forward to this year’s elections:
- 64% of Americans are confident that votes will be counted accurately in the 2022 midterm elections.
- 65% think all eligible citizens in the U.S. will have a fair opportunity to vote in 2022.
- 48% of Americans think officials in state governments that are mostly controlled by Republicans will accept the results of an election even if their party loses.
- 67% of Americans think officials in state governments that are mostly controlled by Democrats will accept the results of an election even if their party loses.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 2022: Trafalgar Group (R), Dec. 13-16
JANUARY 6, VIOLENT PROTESTS, TRUMP RESPONSIBILITY, BIDEN’S 2020 WIN, PRIDE IN DEMOCRACY: Washington Post/Univ. of Maryland, Dec. 17-19
TRUMP RESPONSIBILITY: ABC/Ipsos, Dec. 27-29
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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