Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, August 18, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (WaPo/ABC) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 10 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Publication note: To make sure you’re getting new election polls hot-off-the-press, we’re now back to a daily publication schedule (Monday thru Friday).
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
(Yahoo) Biden over Trump: +9 (50-41)
Average of last five polls: Biden +8.4
RON’S COMMENT: Except for the outlier CNN poll, which gives Biden a 4-point least, everything else out in the last few days show him with a 9- to 10-point lead. This poll result is based on likely voters; among all registered voters, Biden’s lead rises to 11 points.
- Interesting footnote: Going into the 2016 Democratic convention, Hillary Clinton had a much narrower average lead of 2.7 points over Trump (based on three national polls).
IN THE STATES
State Trump carried in 2016:
GEORGIA: Trump +2
RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried Georgia by 5 points in 2016. The average of the last four polls in the state have the race tied.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
NORTH CAROLINA
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +4 (44-40)
COMMENT: The last four polls give challenger Cunningham an average lead of 3.5 points. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
TEXAS
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +7 (44-37)
COMMENT: Cornyn had been polling double-digit leads, but the last three polls have him winning with 7- to 9-point margins. While he can’t take this race for granted, he remains the clear favorite. Handicappers rate it likely or lean Republican.
GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
MISSOURI
Gov. Mike Parson (R) over Nicole Galloway (D): +7 (50-43)
COMMENT: Republican Parson was elected lt. governor in 2016 and moved up to the governorship in 2018 after then-incumbent Eric Greitens (R) resigned. Parson is now seeking a full term. Galloway is state auditor. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.
NORTH CAROLINA
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +14 (52-38)
COMMENT: The last three polls give incumbent Cooper an average lead of 10 points. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Democratic.
BIDEN ON ISSUES
Among voters nationwide
If Biden were president, do you think [ITEM] would be better than [it is/they are]
now, would be worse than [it is/they are] now, or would be about the same?
The economy
Better: 32%
Worse: 35%
Same: 30%
The country’s response to the coronavirus
Better: 46%
Worse: 24%
Same: 26%
Safety from crime
Better: 25%
Worse: 32%
Same: 41%
Race relations
Better: 46%
Worse: 20%
Same: 31%
Healthcare
Better: 39%
Worse: 26%
Same: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters think the response to the coronavirus, race relations and healthcare would get better if Biden wins. Note that only 25% think safety from crime would get better––an indication that Democrats have moved too far left on criminal justice issues. Also note that only 32% think the economy would get better, an indication that many voters still approve of Trump’s handling of this issue.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which states have the most electoral votes––
Alaska or Rhode Island?
Ohio or Michigan?
New Jersey or North Carolina?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONAL: Yahoo/YouGov, Aug. 14-15
GEORGIA: WSB-TV/Landmark, Aug. 14-15
TEXAS: Rice/YouGov, Aug. 4-13
NORTH CAROLINA: East Carolina Univ., Aug. 12-13
BIDEN ON ISSUES: Washington Post/ABC, Aug. 12-15
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TRIVIA ANSWER
Rhode Island has 4 electoral votes. Alaska has 3.
Ohio has 18 electoral votes. Michigan has 16.
North Carolina has 15 electoral votes. New Jersey has 14.
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