Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, June 9, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as Saturday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (CNN) to 45% (WSJ/NBC). Without these extremes it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from Saturday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among voters nationwide
NATIONWIDE
(The Hill) Biden over Trump: +10 (47-37)
(CNN) Biden over Trump: +14 (55-41)
(WSJ/NBC) Biden over Trump: +7 (49-42)
Biden’s Lead: +10.3
RON’S COMMENT: Biden is blowing out big national leads over Trump in today’s polling. The CNN poll is slightly more recent than the other three. Today’s average margin is 10.3 points.
- Looking back: At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump by 2.8 points in the average of national polls, which wasn’t that far off the actual outcome (Clinton +2.1). As you can see, Biden is doing better than Clinton at this point in the race.
MICHIGAN
Biden over Trump: +12 (53-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This is a big lead for Biden in a critical state. In 2016, Trump carried Michigan by two-tenths of a point…. Excerpts from the poll report:
- Among voters in Michigan, Trump’s rating on handling the coronavirus is 41% positive/58% negative––this issue is clearly weighing him down.
- Independent voters in Michigan support Biden over Trump by a whopping 63-23 lead.
- Democratic Sen. Gary Peters leads Republican challenger John James 51-36.
- Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s job rating is 55% positive/43% negative. Also: 60% give her good ratings for handling the pandemic.
BIDEN VS. TRUMP: ON THE ISSUES
Among voters nationwide
I would like you to compare Donald Trump and Joe Biden on a few issues. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be better on that issue.
% = Trump better/Biden better (lead)
TRUMP AHEAD
- Cutting the unemployment rate and getting people back to work: 48%/35% (Trump +13)
- Dealing with the economy: 48%/37% (Trump +11)
- Dealing with China: 43%/40% (Trump +3)
BIDEN AHEAD
- Having the ability to bring the country together: 26%/51% (Biden +25)
- Addressing the concerns of the Hispanic and Latino community: 26%/50% (Biden +24)
- Dealing with issues of concern to women: 25%/46% (Biden +21)
- Addressing the concerns of the African American community: 30%/49% (Biden +19)
- Dealing with health care: 34%/49% (Biden +15)
- Dealing with the coronavirus: 37%/48% (Biden +11)
- Being competent and effective: 38%/47% (Biden +11)
- Representing change: 37%/41% (Biden +4)
- Ending the gridlock in Washington and getting things done: 35%/40% (Biden +5)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads with wide margins on unemployment and the economy (which will likely be his central campaign message). Biden leads with wide margins on bringing the country together (which will likely be his central campaign message), minority issues, women’s issues, healthcare, coronavirus and competence and effectiveness.
OUT OF CONTROL?
Among voters nationwide
When it comes to the country these days, do you generally feel that things in the country are…. Under control …or… Out of control?
Under control: 15%
Out of control: 80%
Some of both (volunteered): 3%
RON’S COMMENT: 80% of voters feel things in the country are out of control. Thank about that.
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
Among voters nationwide
I’m going to read you two statements about the role of government, and I’d like to know which one comes closer to your point of view.
Statement A: Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people: 57%
Statement B: Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals: 38%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters lean heavily toward a more activist government, 57-38. Five years ago, 50% preferred Statement A and 46% preferred Statement B.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 57%/30%
Anthony Fauci: 50%/11%
Donald Trump: 40%/51%
Joe Biden: 37%/38%
China: 5%/56%
Russia: 5%/56%
RON’S COMMENT: Since January, before the coronavirus outbreak, Trump’s favorable rating went down a bit from 43% to 40% and Biden’s favorable rating went up a bit from 35% to 37%.
PARTY CONTROL OF CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
What is your preference for the outcome of this year’s congressional elections––a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?
Democratic Congress: 51%
Republican Congress: 40%
RON’S COMMENT: In January, Democrats had a 6-point lead, now it’s 11.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which president signed an executive order abolishing racial discrimination in the U.S. military?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CNN, June 2-5; The Hill, June 1-4, WSJ/NBC, May 28-June 2.
BIDEN VS. TRUMP: ON THE ISSUES, FAVORABILITY RATINGS, OUT OF CONTROL, ROLE OF GOVERNMENT, PARTY CONTROL OF CONGRESS: Wall Street Journal/Washington Post, May 28-June 2
MICHIGAN: EPIC-MRA, May 30-June 3
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
Harry Truman. On July 26, 1948, President Truman signed Executive Order 9981 integrating the military.
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