Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, February 28, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it’s still 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +8
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +8
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +7
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +3
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +3
Amy Klobuchar over Donald Trump: +1
RON’S COMMENT: Bloomberg, Biden and Sanders do best against Trump…. Trump’s vote ranges between 40% and 43%.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Bernie Sanders: 31%
Joe Biden: 18%
Michael Bloomberg: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Sanders on top––with Biden and Bloomberg in the best position to strike. Buttigieg still has some kick. Warren needs to win something, somewhere to show she’s a contender. Klobuchar and Steyer are stuck at the bottom. Over the past month in this poll, Sanders is up 8 points, Biden is down 8 points, Bloomberg is up 6 points, Buttigieg is up 5 points and Warren is down 4 points…. 30% of Democrats think Sanders is not physically healthy enough to be president. For Biden, it’s 16% and for Bloomberg it’s 6%…. Among second choice votes, Biden leads with 19% followed by Sanders at 17%.
On electability, among Democratic primary voters:
- 65% think Sanders can beat Trump
- 57% think Bloomberg can beat Trump
- 56% think Biden can beat Trump
- 37% think Warren can beat Trump
- 36% think Buttigieg can beat Trump
On policies, among Democratic primary voters:
- 67% think Biden’s policies are realistic
- 57% think Bloomberg’s policies are realistic
- 55% think Buttigieg’s policies are realistic
- 53% think Sanders’ policies are realistic
- 49% think Warren’s policies are realistic
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Among Democratic primary voters in each state
South Carolina Primary
% = Emerson / Post & Courier / DFP = Average
Joe Biden: 41%/28%/34% = 34.3
Bernie Sanders: 25%/24%/25% = 24.7
Tom Steyer: 11%/16%/13% = 13.3
Pete Buttigieg: 11%/11%/13% = 11.7
Elizabeth Warren: 5%/12%/7% = 8
Amy Klobuchar: 6%/4%/5% = 5
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%/5%/3% = 3.3
RON’S COMMENT: Three polls, three different results. Bottom line: Biden holds a clear lead with Sanders second. If Biden wins this “firewall” primary, he’s back in the game. The South Carolina primary is tomorrow for 54 delegates…. But: No matter how they come out of South Carolina tomorrow, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar have to face 14 Super Tuesday states three days later––and they have to do it without much money and only limited organization.
California Primary
Bernie Sanders: 34%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Michael Bloomberg: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Joe Biden: 8%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%
Tom Steyer: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders holds a lead in this critical state. Caveat: This poll was taken right after the Nevada debate, which may account for Bloomberg’s lackluster poll performance, considering how much money he’s poured into California. The primary is Tuesday for 415 delegates.
Massachusetts Primary
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 14%
Michael Bloomberg: 13%
Joe Biden: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%
Tom Steyer: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: If Warren loses her home state, will the humiliation finish her candidacy? The primary is Tuesday for 91 delegates
Utah Primary
Bernie Sanders: 28%
Michael Bloomberg: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Joe Biden: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: The primary is Tuesday for 29 delegates
Wisconsin Primary
Bernie Sanders: 29%
Michael Bloomberg: 17%
Joe Biden: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Amy Klobuchar: 11%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders holds a solid lead in Wisconsin with Bloomberg second. The primary is not until April 7 for 84 delegates.
ROGER STONE PARDON
Among voters nationwide
Do you think Donald Trump should or should not pardon Roger Stone for his conviction on 7 felony counts of obstruction, witness tampering, and false statements connected with the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election?
Should pardon Stone: 22%
Should NOT pardon Stone: 57%
Not sure: 21%
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters oppose pardoning Stone. However, among only Republicans, it’s 38% for a pardon and 30% against…. Also, 38% of voters think Stone’s sentence should have been harsher and 25% think it should have been more lenient.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT, NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Fox News, Feb. 23-26
SOUTH CAROLINA: Emerson, Feb. 26-27; Post & Courier, Feb. 23-27; Data for Progress (D), Feb. 23-27
CALIFORNIA: Berkeley/IGS, Feb. 20-25
MASSACHUSETTS: WBUR/MassINC, Feb. 23-26
WISCONSIN: Marquette Univ., Feb. 19-23
UTAH: Deseret News/Hinckley, Feb. 22-26
ROGER STONE PARDON: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 23-25
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