Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, February 20, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, The Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, the average is 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE
by Ron Faucheux
This was the bloodiest debate we’ve seen, the kind of circular firing squad that weakens Democrats for November.
- Michael Bloomberg was everybody’s target, everybody’s point of contrast. He was rusty and his rivals were on fire. Bloomberg seemed surprised and annoyed by the ferocity of attacks. Even worse, he didn’t effectively fight back. Elizabeth Warren savaged him on the issue of sexual harassment NDAs. It was a clean kill. He was hit hard on “stop and frisk” and his response was anemic. Bernie Sanders used him as the billionaire foil for repeated digs on “grotesque” wealth inequality.
- Sanders, as usual, did well. He took hits and forcefully defended himself. His performance should help him in Nevada, although his opponents have set the stage for painting him as an unelectable socialist––which is a heavy millstone to carry around his neck throughout the primary season.
- Warren was more aggressive than she’s ever been. She showed she can be effective on the attack. She constantly swung from the floor and went after everybody. Her performance fired up her supporters––which she badly needed––but beyond that it’s not clear how much it helps her.
- Biden had a good night. He was more aggressive, clear and direct than usual.
- Buttigieg was strong and persuasive. His line about nominating someone “who is actually a Democrat” was clever. He handled both offense and defense with skill. He may have gone too far, though, in his exchange with Amy Klobuchar about her not knowing the name of the Mexican president. Buttigieg should have used more humor, a lighter touch.
- Klobuchar generally did a good job, especially when she discussed the need to nominate a candidate who can beat Trump. It became obvious, however, that jabs from Warren and Buttigieg were getting under her skin. She couldn’t hide her exasperation.
BOXSCORE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Average of most recent general election polls
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4.3
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +3.8
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +3.5
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +1.8
Amy Klobuchar over Donald Trump: +1.3
Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump: +1
RON’S COMMENT: In the Lunchtime Politics Boxscore, which averages the four most recent national general election polls in the presidential race, all six Democrats are leading Trump, but Biden does best. (Warren’s average is based on the most recent two polls available.)
SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters statewide
Joe Biden: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Tom Steyer: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Amy Klobuchar: 9%
Tulsi Gabbard: 4%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The poll we reported yesterday showed a tie between Biden and Sanders in the crucial South Carolina primary. This poll, which is a bit more recent, shows Biden edging Sanders by 2 points. In any case, this state is now a lot closer than a “firewall” should be for Biden. This poll was taken before last night’s debate. Internal data:
- Biden is winning 43% of blacks, with Sanders at 20% and Steyer at 19%.
- Sanders carries whites (23%) with Buttigieg second (16%), Klobuchar third (15%), Warren fourth (14%) and Biden fifth (11%).
- Warren does better with women (13%) than men (7%). But, Klobuchar does better with men (12%) than women (8%).
- Primary is Feb. 29 for 54 delegates.
SENATE: ARIZONA 2020
Among voters statewide
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +7 (46-39)
RON’S COMMENT: If this poll is accurate, it’s good news for Democrats––and may mean appointed-incumbent McSally’s vote against removal of the president did some damage to her prospects. This Senate seat will be a major battleground this November. In the survey data:
- Republican McSally wins 78% of Republicans, 52% of rural Arizona and 47% of men.
- Challenger Kelly wins 53% of women and 53% of voters under 50. He also leads Maricopa County (47-37) and wins independents (52-28).
- Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
FAVORABILITY OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Among voters nationwide
Among all voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Bernie Sanders: 43%/52%
Elizabeth Warren: 42%/49%
Pete Buttigieg: 41%/46%
Joe Biden: 41%/55%
Amy Klobuchar: 39%/38%
Michael Bloomberg: 33%/56%
RON’S COMMENT: Keep in mind, these ratings are among the entire electorate and not just party primary voters…. The only Democrat to have a net positive rating is Klobuchar, albeit by a single point (39/38). Bloomberg has the highest negative (56%) and the lowest positive (33%). Sanders has the highest positive (43%) and Klobuchar has the lowest negative (38%)…. Note how high Biden’s negative is, perhaps a byproduct of the Ukraine matter?…. This poll was taken before last night’s debate.
Among only Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Elizabeth Warren: 74%/21%
Bernie Sanders: 71%/25%
Joe Biden: 67%/28%
Pete Buttigieg: 66%/23%
Amy Klobuchar: 61%/20%
Michael Bloomberg: 53%/38%
RON’S COMMENT: These ratings are among only Democratic primary voters…. Bloomberg has the highest negative (38%) and the lowest positive (53%). Warren has the highest positive (74%) and Klobuchar has the lowest negative (20%)…. This poll was taken before last night’s debate.
EQUAL RIGHTS AMENDMENT
Among voters nationwide
The Equal Rights Amendment, first proposed in 1972, guarantees equal rights for all citizens regardless of sex. Would you support or oppose such an amendment being added to the US Constitution?
Support ERA: 68%
Oppose ERA: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: 85% of Democrats, 62% of independents, 53% of Republicans, 64% of men and 71% of women support the ERA.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
BOXSCORE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Washington Post/ABC, Feb. 14-17; Emerson, Feb. 16-18; WSJ/NBC, Feb. 14-17; NPR/PBS, Feb. 13-16
SOUTH CAROLINA: UMass Lowell, Feb. 12-18
ARIZONA: HighGround Public Affairs, Feb. 7-9
FAVORABILITY OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES, ERA: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 16-18
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