Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, January 20, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 32%
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Michael Bloomberg: 9%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll confirms other national polling with Biden first, Sanders second and Warren third. It also has Buttigieg and Bloomberg vying for fourth place…. Biden does best with women (34%), voters over 50 (41%), blacks (50%) and voters with incomes under $40k (37%). Sanders and Biden are nearly tied for first place among Hispanics.
IOWA CAUCUS
Among Democratic caucusgoers statewide
Iowa Caucus
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 16%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Amy Klobuchar: 11%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This Iowa poll scrambles the deck, showing Biden clearly ahead with Warren second, Buttigieg third, Sanders fourth and Klobuchar within striking distance. Trends are all over the place:
- In three of the four most recent polls, Biden has received 23-24% in the state. One poll had him at 15%.
- Sanders has gone progressively down, from 23% to 20% to 18% to 14%.
- Warren bounces around between 16% and 18%.
- Buttigieg went from 23% to 16% to 17%.
- Klobuchar is the only one with upward movement, going from 6% to 8% to 11%. Does she have the time, money and organization to keep going?
50 GOVERNORS: APPROVAL RATINGS
Among voters in each state
State, Name (Party): Approve %/Disapprove %
TOP 10
Wyoming, Mark Gordon (R): 69% / 11%
Maryland, Larry Hogan (R): 69% / 16%
Massachusetts, Charlie Baker (R): 69% / 19%
Vermont, Phil Scott (R): 65% /22%
New Hampshire, Chris Sununu (R): 59% /30%
North Dakota, Doug Burgum (R): 58% / 20%
Florida, Ron DeSantis (R): 58% / 22%
Texas, Greg Abbott (R): 58% / 23%
Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson (R): 58% / 24%
Alabama, Kay Ivey (R): 58% / 28%
UPPER MIDDLE
Tennessee, Bill Lee (R): 57% / 19%
Oklahoma, Kevin Stitt (R): 56% / 21%
Idaho, Brad Little (R): 55% / 23%
Mississippi, Phil Bryant (R): 55% / 25%*
Louisiana, John Bel Edwards (D): 54% / 35%
Delaware, John Carney (D): 53% / 26%
Georgia, Brian Kemp (R): 53% / 27%
Utah, Gary Herbert (R): 53% / 29%
South Carolina, Henry McMaster (R): 53% / 26%
Pennsylvania, Tom Wolf (D): 53% / 33%
MIDDLE
Minnesota, Tim Walz (D): 52% / 27%
Montana, Steve Bullock (D): 52% / 31%
Nebraska, Pete Ricketts (R): 52% / 34%
Indiana, Eric Holcomb (R): 51% / 23%
Kansas, Laura Kelly (D): 50% / 24%
Arizona, Doug Ducey (R): 50% / 29%
Nevada, Steve Sisolak (D): 50% / 27%
Missouri, Mike Parson (R): 49% / 24%
Ohio, Mike DeWine (R): 49% / 30%
Wisconsin, Tony Evers (D): 48% / 36%
LOWER MIDDLE
North Carolina, Roy Cooper (D): 47% / 32%
New York, Andrew Cuomo (D): 47% / 42%
Maine, Janet Mills (D): 47% / 45%
Colorado, Jared Polis (D): 46% / 34%
New Jersey, Phil Murphy (D): 46% / 37%
Washington, Jay Inslee (D): 44% / 38%
New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham (D): 44% / 39%
Iowa, Kim Reynolds (R): 44% / 39%
West Virginia, Jim Justice (R): 43% / 44%
South Dakota, Kristi Noem (R): 43% / 45%
BOTTOM 10
Illinois, JB Pritzker (D): 43% / 41%
Virginia, Ralph Northam (D): 42% / 36%
California, Gavin Newsom (D): 42% / 38%
Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer (D): 42% / 39%
Alaska, Mike Dunleavy (R): 42% / 42%
Oregon, Kate Brown (D): 37% / 50%
Rhode Island, Gina Raimondo (D): 35% / 55%
Kentucky, Matt Bevin (R): 34% / 55%*
Connecticut, Ned Lamont (D): 32% / 51%
Hawaii, David Ige (D): 32% / 58%
RON’S COMMENT: The 14 most popular governors in the nation are all Republicans. Eight of the 10 least popular governors are Democrats…. Gordon (WY), Hogan (MD) and Baker (MA) all received 69% positive ratings in their states, ranking 1, 2 and 3. This is the first time Gordon has led Baker and Hogan…. The most popular Democrat is Edwards (LA), who was recently re-elected in red Louisiana…. The least popular Republican is Bevin (KY), who was defeated for re-election in red Kentucky. The least popular Democrats are Lamont (CT) and Inge (HI), each have 32% approval ratings in their blue states…. Looking at women governors, one rates in the top 10, one in the middle, four in the lower middle and three in the bottom 10…. Caveat: This data is based on surveys conducted between October 1 and December 31, 2019. As such, some of these results may not provide a useful current reading. (* = these governors were in office during most of the polling but have since left office.)
GREAT BRITAIN’S MONARCHY
Among adults in the U.S.
Generally speaking, do you think it’s a good or a bad thing for countries like the UK to have a monarchy?
Good thing: 13%
Bad thing: 17%
Neither good nor bad: 46%
RON’S COMMENT: 14% of Democrats, 10% of independents and 18% of Republicans in the U.S. say it’s a good thing for countries like the UK to have a monarchy.
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA; FRA/Binder (D), Jan. 15-18
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: SurveyUSA, Jan. 14-16
GREAT BRITAIN’S MONARCHY: The Economist/YouGov. Jan. 11-14
50 GOVERNORS: Morning Consult, October 1 and December 31
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