Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, November 27, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Quinnipiac, Politico) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
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NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = Quinnipiac / CNN / SurveyUSA / The Economist = Average
Joe Biden: 24% / 28% / 30% / 23% = 26.3
Bernie Sanders: 13% / 17% / 17% / 15% = 15.5
Elizabeth Warren: 14% / 14% / 15% / 17% = 15
Pete Buttigieg: 16% / 11% / 11% / 12% = 12.5
Kamala Harris: 3% / 3% / 5% / 4% = 3.8
Michael Bloomberg: 3% / 3% / 3% / 3% = 3
Amy Klobuchar: 3% / 2% / 2% / 3% = 2.5
Andrew Yang: 2% / 3% / 4% / 3% = 3
Cory Booker: 2% / 2% / 2% / 2% = 2
Tom Steyer: – / 3% / 2% / 1% = 1.5
Julian Castro: 2% / 1% / 1% / 1% = 1.3
Tulsi Gabbard: 1% / – / 1% / 2% = 1
Michael Bennet: 2% / – / – / 1 = 0.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Numbers are bouncing around. Warren keeps sliding and Buttigieg keeps moving up. Biden’s numbers are all over the place. Sanders is generally up. Let’s look at the trends––
- Since the last Quinnipiac poll a month ago, Warren has plummeted 14 points, Biden is up 3, Sanders is down 2 and Buttigieg is up 6.
- Since the last CNN poll a month ago, Biden is down 6, Warren is down 5, Buttigieg is up 5 and Sanders is up 1.
- Since the last SurveyUSA poll three weeks ago, Biden is up 4, Sanders is up 4, Warren is down 2 and Buttigieg is up 1.
- Since the previous poll from The Economist last week, Biden is down 7, Warren is down 5, Sanders is up 3 and Buttigieg is up 3.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Among all general election voters
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (48-41)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (49-42)
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (46-42)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (47-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Buttigieg and Sanders each beat Trump by 7 points in New Hampshire, while Biden and Warren post 4-point leads. Hillary Clinton beat Trump in New Hampshire by four-tenths of a point, making it the second closest state in percentage terms.
Among Democratic voters statewide
Bernie Sanders: 26%
Pete Buttigieg: 22%
Joe Biden: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Tulsi Gabbard: 6%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Warren and Biden are falling out of contention in New Hampshire. Since the September Emerson poll, Biden is down 10 and Warren is down 7. The beneficiaries: Sanders is up 13 and Buttigieg is up 11…. Among voters who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 New Hampshire primary, Biden leads with 26%, followed by Buttigieg with 20%, Warren at 17% and Sanders at 14%. Of those who supported Sanders in 2016, 40% still support him, 23% now favor Buttigieg, 14% favor Warren and 6% support Biden…. Michael Bloomberg gets 1% in this poll and Deval Patrick, former governor of neighboring Massachusetts with shared media markets, gets nothing.
CALIFORNIA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 28%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Kamala Harris: 10%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Michael Bloomberg: 3%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Since the last KGTV/SurveyUSA poll in California a month ago, Biden is down 5, Warren is down 5, Buttigieg is up 4, Sanders is up 1 and Harris is up 2….In September, Warren led three California polls…. Expect Bloomberg to crush every other candidate in terms of spending in this gigantic state between now and the March 3 primary. He could drop as much as $200 million just in California. No one knows what impact that will have on the race.
IMPEACHMENT AND REMOVAL
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the U.S. House of Representatives should or should not impeach Donald Trump?
Should impeach: 49%
Should not impeach: 42%
RON’S COMMENT: 85% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans favor impeachment. About four-in-ten independents do…. In this same poll three weeks ago, 49% favored impeachment––which means the recent televised hearings have had no impact.
If the U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach Donald Trump, do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not remove him from office?
Should remove from office: 50%
Should not remove from office: 43%
RON’S COMMENT: 83% of Democrats and 11% of Republicans favor removal. About four-in-ten independents do …. In this same poll three weeks ago, 50% favored removal––which means the recent televised hearings have had no impact.
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac, Nov. 21-25; CNN, Nov. 21-24; SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-21; The Economist/YouGov, 24-26
NEW HAMPSHIRE: WHDH/Emerson, Nov. 22-26
CALIFORNIA: KGTV/SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-22
IMPEACHMENT AND REMOVAL: The Economist/YouGov, 24-26
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