Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, June 12, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
TRUMP RATING: HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Job approval ratings
Job approval ratings at this point in their presidencies
Donald Trump: 43% (Lunchtime Politics average)
Donald Trump: 40% (Gallup’s latest poll in May)
Barack Obama: 46%
George W. Bush: 62%
Bill Clinton: 47%
George H. W. Bush: 71%
Ronald Reagan: 43%
Jimmy Carter: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump is now doing about the same as Reagan, better than Carter and not quite as well as Clinton and Obama at this point in their presidencies. He’s far below the two Bushes…. As we know, Bush 41 and Carter lost re-election, and Reagan, Bush 43, Obama and Clinton won re-election…. Note: Trump’s ratings are based on today’s Lunchtime Politics average and Gallup’s latest poll from May, and the others are all based on Gallup polls. Gallup’s numbers on Trump are often lower than other polls largely because they poll all adults, while most other polls sample registered voters. Trump generally polls better among voters than all adults.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Among all general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +13 (53-40)
Kamala Harris (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +8 (49-41)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (51-42)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (49-42)
Cory Booker (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (47-42)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (47-42)
RON’S COMMENT: The Quinnipiac poll, which often shows Democrats doing better than other polls, has Trump losing to every Democrat tested by 5 to 13 points. Nonetheless, this is clearly bad news for Trump and is fairly consistent with re-elect ratings and trial heats from other national polls. Biden wallops Trump 58-28 among independents, a group of voters that is now giving the president serious trouble. Sanders also wins independents, 57-33, as does Warren, 51-34. In 2016, Trump won independents against Hillary Clinton by 46-42.
Among only Democrats nationwide:
Quinnipiac/Morning Consult = Average
Joe Biden: 30%/37% = 33.5
Bernie Sanders: 19%/19% = 19
Elizabeth Warren: 15%/11% = 13
Pete Buttigieg: 8%/7% = 7.5
Kamala Harris: 7%/7% = 7%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%/4% = 3.5
Cory Booker: 1%/3% = 2
Amy Klobuchar: 1%/2% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Quinnipiac shows Biden dropping 5 points over the last three weeks and Morning Consult has Biden slipping a point since last week. Quinnipiac has Warren up 2 and Morning Consult has her up 1. Sanders is up 3 in Quinnipiac and has stayed the same in the Morning Consult survey…. Sanders and Warren lead among the most liberal Democrats, each with 29%. Biden leads among moderate Democrats with 38%.… Among voters who are paying a lot of attention to the campaign, Biden leads with 32% and Warren is second with 17%…. In the Morning Consult subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 39%, then Sanders 21% and Warren 8%.
MEXICO
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the nation’s policy toward Mexico?
Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 55%
RON’S COMMENT: 89% of Republicans, 4% of Democrats and 32% of independents approve of Trump’s handling of Mexico. This poll was taken June 6-10. The trade/border deal between the U.S. and Mexico was announced June 7, the second day of survey interviewing. We will have to wait for later polls to get a fuller picture of this issue as its plays out.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP JOB RATING COMPARISON: Gallup polls, LP Trump average
NATIONAL PRESIDENT: Quinnipiac, June 6-10, Morning Consult, June 7-9
MEXICO: Quinnipiac, June 6-10
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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