LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Testing Pelosi – Caravan – Ratings – Arizona Senate Race by the Numbers

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, November 16, 2018

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

Have a great Thanksgiving week! Lunchtime Politics will be back Nov. 26.

NEXT SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE
Among Democrats nationwide

[Among Democrats only] Do you think Nancy Pelosi should become the next Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives or do you think it should be some other Democrat? 

Nancy Pelosi: 37%
Some other Democrat: 26%
Not sure: 28%
Don’t care: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: While Democrats favor Pelosi over someone else, her support level falls well below 50%.

PERSONAL RATINGS
Among voters nationwide 

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
John Kelly: 29%/35%
Jeff Sessions: 22%/59%
Robert Mueller: 43%/37%
Chris Christie: 26%/57%
Matthew Whittaker: 21%/37%

RON’S COMMENT: Looks like Sessions caught it from both ends––while 63% of Democrats don’t like him, 50% of Trump voters don’t like him either. Both Christie and Whittaker, possible AG selections, have net negative ratings. Mueller is the only one on this list who is net positive.

CARAVAN
Among voters nationwide

How serious a threat do you think the immigrant caravan poses to the United States? 

An immediate and serious threat to the U.S.: 28%
A somewhat serious threat to the U.S.: 17%
A minor threat to the U.S.: 14%
Not a threat to the U.S.: 36%
Not sure: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: 51% of Republicans say the caravan is an “immediate and serious threat to the U.S.” That compares to 21% of independents and 7% of Democrats…. 46% of voters approve of President Trump sending troops to the border in response to the caravan. Also: 45% of voters favor building the wall.

ARIZONA SENATE: VOTER BREAKDOWN
Exit polling data based on voters statewide

Voter group: Candidate + point lead

All voters (actual results): Sinema (D) +2 points

Men: even
Women: Sinema (D) +4

18-44 age: Sinema (D) +21
45+ age: McSally (R) +7

Whites: McSally (R) +8
Latinos: Sinema (D) +40

White men: McSally (R) +13
White women: McSally (R) +5

While college grads: Sinema (D) +10
White non-grads: McSally (R) +19

Democrats: Sinema (D) +94
Republicans: McSally (R) +74
Independents: Sinema (D) +3

Approve of Trump: McSally (R) +76
Disapprove of Trump: Sinema (D) +89

RON’S COMMENT: Notably, Democrat Sinema––the ultimate winner––did better among Republicans (12%) than Republican McSally did among Democrats (3%)––an important difference in a close election.  Anti-Trump voters went for Sinema 94-5, while pro-Trump voters went for McSally 87-11. (Again, note the difference.) There was only a small gender gap between the candidates (4 points). Sinema did better among men, by evenly splitting them, than most Democratic candidates did in tough Senate races. For example, both Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in Missouri and challenger Jacky Rosen (D) in Nevada lost men by 15 points. McCaskill lost her race and Rosen won hers.

SOURCES
SPEAKER, CARAVAN, RATINGS: The Economist/YouGov, Nov. 11-13

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