LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Texas Senate Race by the Numbers – Trump Re-Elect – Replacing Mueller

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, November 15, 2018

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 38% (Gallup) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

TRUMP RE-ELECTION
Among voters nationwide 

Looking ahead to the 2020 election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office?

Should be re-elected: 37%
Should not be re-elected: 58%
Don’t know: 4%

RON’S COMMENT: Even though Trump’s average job approval is 44% nationwide, only 37% say he should be re-elected. By groups: 26% of women, 46% of men, 24% of 18-34 year-olds, 44% of 55+ year-olds, 44% of whites and 20% of nonwhites say Trump should be re-elected.

REPLACING SPECIAL COUNSEL
Among voters nationwide

Would you support or oppose requiring the approval of a panel of federal judges before any special counsel could be fired by the president or attorney general? 

Support: 59%
Oppose: 32%
Don’t know: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters believe a special counsel should not be fired by the president or the AG without approval by a panel of federal judges––39% of Republicans, 59% of independents and 79% of Democrats agree.

TEXAS SENATE: VOTER BREAKDOWN
Data from 2018 exit polling

Voter group: Candidate + point lead

All voters (actual results): Cruz +2.6

Men: Cruz +13
Women: O’Rourke +8

18-44 age: O’Rourke +19
45+ age: Cruz +16

Whites: Cruz +32
Blacks: O’Rourke +78
Latinos: O’Rourke +29

White men: Cruz +44
White women: Cruz +21

While college grads: Cruz +11
White non-grads: Cruz +48

Democrats: O’Rourke +84
Republicans: Cruz +83
Independents: O’Rourke +3

Married men: Cruz +18
Married women: Cruz +8
Unmarried men: O’Rourke +18
Unmarried women: O’Rourke +24

Evangelical Christians: Cruz +63
Gun owners: Cruz +27
First-time voters: O’Rourke +14

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP RE-ELECTION, REPLACING SPECIAL COUNSEL: Monmouth, Nov. 9-12

Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.