Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 11, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters/Ipsos) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
MISSOURI: Josh Hawley (R) over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): +1 (45-44)
NEVADA: Jacky Rosen (D) over Sen. Dean Heller (R): +2 (47-45)
WEST VIRGINIA: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) over Patrick Morrisey (R): +1 (41-40)
TEXAS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +9 (54-45)
WISCONSIN: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Leah Vukmir (R): +10 (53-43)
MINNESOTA: Sen. Tina Smith (DFL) over Karin Housley (R): +16 (54-38)
MINNESOTA: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL) over Jim Newberger (R): +30 (63-33)
CONNECTICUT: Sen. Chris Murphy (D) over Matthew Corey (R): +15 (57-42)
OHIO: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Jim Renacci (R): +18 (54-36)
RHODE ISLAND: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) over Bob Flanders (R): +24 (57-33)
RON’S COMMENT:
MISSOURI––Democratic incumbent McCaskill is trailing by a point today. Internals indicate that her vote against Kavanaugh may have been a wash.
NEVADA––This poll tracks the one we reported yesterday, showing Heller with a 2-point edge. That’s good news for Republicans, Heller has had a rough time getting above water.
WEST VIRGINIA––This poll, taken by a GOP firm, shows a tightening of the race. If accurate, that’s more good news for the GOP.
TEXAS––Interestingly enough, Cruz is more personally popular than is O’Rourke: Cruz is 52% favorable/44% unfavorable, while O’Rourke is 45% favorable/47% unfavorable. The survey also finds that immigration is the top issue in the state. The average of recent polls puts Cruz on top by 6.7 points.
OTHERS––The other incumbent Democrats in today’s polling are all doing well at this point, each of them has a double digit lead. That’s no surprise. The closest of the bunch is Baldwin of Wisconsin, with a 10-point lead.
GOVERNOR
WISCONSIN: Gov. Scott Walker (R) over Tony Evers (D): +1 (47-46)
OHIO: Richard Cordray (D) over Mike DeWine (R): +6 (46-40)
ARIZONA: Gov. Doug Ducey (R) over David Garcia (D): +17 (54-37)
CONNECTICUT: Ned Lamont (D) over Bob Stefanowski (R): +8 (47-39)
MINNESOTA: Tim Walz (DFL) over Jeff Johnson (R): +17 (55-38)
RON’S COMMENT:
WISCONSIN––This new poll shows that Republican incumbent Walker is up in Wisconsin (previous polls had his opponent leading). It should be mentioned that other turnout models from this same poll indicate that Democrat Evers leads by a narrow margin. Walker is an expert at cutting it close, though. He’s run many tough races and won. His personal rating is now 48% favorable/49% unfavorable.
OHIO––Democrat Cordray is up in Ohio (previous polls showed either a tie or his opponent leading).
MINNESOTA––Previous polls showed Democrat Walz ahead by a narrower 7-9 points. This one has it at +17.
HOUSE
NORTH CAROLINA 13: Rep. Ted Budd (R) over Kathy Manning (D): +6 (47-41)
TEXAS 31: Rep. John Carter (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +15 (53-38)
WASHINGTON 8: Dino Rossi (R) over Kim Schrier (D): +10 (49-39)
RON’S COMMENT:
NORTH CAROLINA 13––GOP incumbent Budd was first elected in 2014. He’s viewed as a Freedom Caucus member and is the owner of a gun store. The district includes Democratic Greensboro and rural Republican counties. First-time candidate Manning, who once contributed to Pelosi but now says she won’t support her for Speaker, is the first woman to head the Jewish Federation of North America. Trump won the district by 9 points. Manning has outraised Budd. Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Republican.
TEXAS 31––GOP incumbent Carter was first elected in 2002. Democrat Hegar is a former Air Force helicopter pilot. Trump won the district by 13 points. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.
WASHINGTON 8––This race is for the seat of retiring Rep. Dave Reichert (R).
SENATE JOB RATINGS
Among voters in each state
% = Approve/Disapprove
- Alabama, Richard Shelby: 48%/28%
- Alabama, Doug Jones: 43%/30%
- Alaska, Lisa Murkowski: 44%/36%
- Alaska, Dan Sullivan: 42%/35%
- Arizona, John McCain: 44%/45%
- Arizona, Jeff Flake: 32%/49%
- Arkansas, Tom Cotton: 50%/32%
- Arkansas, John Boozman: 46%/28%
- California, Kamala Harris: 44%/30%
- California, Dianne Feinstein: 44%/37%
- Colorado, Michael Bennet: 42%/32%
- Colorado, Cory Gardner: 39%/37%
- Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal: 47%/39%
- Connecticut, Chris Murphy: 46%/36%
- Delaware, Tom Carper: 51%/29%
- Delaware, Chris Coons: 50%/30%
- Florida, Marco Rubio: 41%/42%
- Florida, Bill Nelson: 39%/41%
- Georgia, David Perdue: 46%/28%
- Georgia, Johnny Isakson: 46%/27%
- Hawaii, Brian Schatz: 57%/26%
- Hawaii, Mazie Hirono: 57%/30%
- Idaho, Michael Crapo: 48%/30%
- Idaho, James Risch: 46%/30%
- Illinois, Tammy Duckworth: 44%/33%
- Illinois, Dick Durbin: 37%/40%
- Indiana, Todd Young: 41%/29%
- Indiana, Joe Donnelly: 39%/38%
- Iowa, Chuck Grassley: 45%/38%
- Iowa, Joni Ernst: 42%/37%
- Kansas, Jerry Moran: 39%/34%
- Kansas, Pat Roberts: 34%/41%
- Kentucky, Rand Paul: 41%/40%
- Kentucky, Mitch McConnell: 33%/52%
- Louisiana, John Kennedy: 49%/24%
- Louisiana, Bill Cassidy: 46%/27%
- Maine, Angus King: 58%/29%
- Maine, Susan Collins: 53%/38%
- Maryland, Benjamin Cardin: 46%/25%
- Maryland, Chris Van Hollen: 44%/23%
- Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren: 50%/40%
- Massachusetts, Edward Markey: 49%/25%
- Michigan, Debbie Stabenow: 43%/37%
- Michigan, Gary Peters: 33%/28%
- Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar: 58%/26%
- Minnesota, Tina Smith: 41%/24%
- Mississippi, Roger Wicker: 46%/27%
- Mississippi, Cindy Hyde-Smith: 39%/22%
- Missouri, Roy Blunt: 38%/38%
- Missouri, Claire McCaskill: 37%/48%
- Montana, Jon Tester: 52%/37%
- Montana, Steve Daines: 42%/35%
- Nebraska, Benjamin Sasse: 43%/34%
- Nebraska, Deb Fischer: 42%/39%
- Nevada, Dean Heller: 37%/44%
- Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto: 37%/35%
- New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen: 51%/36%
- New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan: 50%/36%
- New Jersey, Cory Booker: 48%/31%
- New Jersey, Robert Menendez: 31%/46%
- New Mexico, Tom Udall: 47%/32%
- New Mexico, Martin Heinrich: 45%/33%
- New York, Chuck Schumer: 48%/36%
- New York, Kirsten Gillibrand: 45%/30%
- North Carolina, Richard Burr: 40%/32%
- North Carolina, Thom Tillis: 36%/33%
- North Dakota, John Hoeven: 54%/28%
- North Dakota, Heidi Heitkamp: 47%/43%
- Ohio, Sherrod Brown: 45%/29%
- Ohio, Robert Portman: 37%/33%
- Oklahoma, James Lankford: 40%/36%
- Oklahoma, James Inhofe: 39%/38%
- Oregon, Ron Wyden: 52%/27%
- Oregon, Jeff Merkley: 46%/29%
- Pennsylvania, Robert Casey: 43%/31%
- Pennsylvania, Patrick Toomey: 35%/39%
- Rhode Island, Jack Reed: 56%/21%
- Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse: 50%/32%
- South Carolina, Tim Scott: 53%/22%
- South Carolina, Lindsey Graham: 43%/39%
- South Dakota, John Thune: 58%/30%
- South Dakota, Mike Rounds: 54%/32%
- Tennessee, Lamar Alexander: 43%/33%
- Tennessee, Bob Corker: 41%/36%
- Texas, Ted Cruz: 49%/35%
- Texas, John Cornyn: 42%/27%
- Utah, Mike Lee: 48%/29%
- Utah, Orrin Hatch: 47%/39%
- Vermont, Bernie Sanders: 63%/30%
- Vermont, Patrick Leahy: 61%/27%
- Virginia, Mark Warner: 49%/30%
- Virginia, Tim Kaine: 45%/34%
- Washington, Patty Murray: 48%/32%
- Washington, Maria Cantwell: 46%/30%
- West Virginia, Shelley Capito: 47%/33%
- West Virginia, Joe Manchin: 44%/43%
- Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin: 47%/36%
- Wisconsin, Ron Johnson: 39%/39%
- Wyoming, Michael Enzi: 49%/26%
- Wyoming, John Barrasso: 48%/32%
RON’S COMMENT:
Note how few senators have job approval ratings above 50% (only 16 out of 100)…. Seven of the 10 most popular senators are either Democrats or independents who caucus with Democrats…. Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) continues to be the Senate’s least popular member in his home state, although his net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) went up by 8 points over the past three months. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) continues to be the Senate’s most popular member at home…. Sen. Bill Nelson (FL-D) experienced the biggest decline in net approval of any senator, dropping 12 points (net) over the last three months. Along with Nelson, three other Senate Democrats who are running this November in states that Donald Trump won in 2016—Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Joe Donnelly (D-IN) Indiana and Joe Manchin (D-WV)––rate below the president in their states. However, six other Democrats from Trump states (Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI.), Jon Tester (D-MT), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey (D-PA) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) have better approval ratings than Trump in their states…. Democrat Tester, who’s in a competitive race in Montana this year, is one of the few senators with a job approval above 50%…. Of Democratic Senate incumbents running this year, Baldwin improved the most, increasing her net approval 6 points. Following is Heitkamp, up by a net of 4 points…. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was the second most unpopular senator who is running this year, following McCaskill…. Note that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was still alive during most of the polling period for these surveys…. Keep in mind that these ratings were derived from surveys taken over a 3-month period. They are based on 359,057 surveys with registered voters conducted by Morning Consult, July 1 through Sept. 25.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: NYT/Siena, Oct. 8-10
TEXAS, QUINNIPIAC: Quinnipiac, Oct. 3-9
WISCONSIN: Marquette, Oct. 3-7
MISSOURI: Reuters/Ipsos/UVA, Sept. 27-Oct. 7
WEST VIRGINIA: POS (R), Oct. 7-9
MINNESOTA: NBC/Marist, Sept. 30-Oct. 4
OHIO: Suffolk, Oct. 4-8
RHODE ISLAND: UNH, Oct. 3-9
WASHINGTON 8: Elway Research, Oct. 4-9
NORTH CAROLINA 13, TEXAS 31: NYT/Siena, Oct. 3-8
SENATE JOB RATINGS: Morning Consult, July 1-Sept. 25
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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