Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 5, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (IBD/TIPP) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
FRIDAY’S GENERIC BALLOT FOR CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
The Economist: Democrats +5
NPR/PBS/Marist: Democrats +6
IBD/TIPP: Democrats +2
Reuters/Ipsos: Democrats +12
Harvard-Harris: Democrats +8
Current average: Democrats: +6.6
Last week: Democrats: +8.2
RON’S COMMENT: The average Democratic advantage in the nationwide generic ballot has declined from 8.2 points last week to 6.6 points now.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
MICHIGAN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +18 (53-35)
RON’S COMMENT: The average of recent polls has Democratic incumbent Stabenow ahead by 18 points.
GOVERNOR
SOUTH CAROLINA: Gov. Henry McMaster (R) over James Smith (D): +14 (51-37)
RON’S COMMENT: GOP incumbent McMaster has a clear lead in this poll over his Democratic opponent. The poll was taken by a Republican-affiliated outfit. McMaster took over the governorship when former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) became UN Ambassador.
HOUSE
VIRGINIA 10: Jennifer Wexton (D) over U.S. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R): +7 (51-44)
MICHIGAN8: Rep. Mike Bishop (R) over Elissa Slotkin (D): +3 (47-44)
ARIZONA 2: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) over Lea Marquez Peterson (R): +11 (50-39)
MINNESOTA 2: Angie Craig (DFL) over Rep. Jason Lewis (R): +12 (51-39)
CALIFORNIA 22: Devin Nunes (R) over Andrew Janz (D): +8 (53-45)
CALIFORNIA 25: Katie Hill (D) over Rep. Steve Knight (R): +4 (50-46)
CALIFORNIA 48: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) and Harley Rouda (D): even (48-48)
CALIFORNIA 50: Duncan Hunter (R) over Ammar Campa-Najjar (D): +2 (49-47)
RON’S COMMENT: We have polls today on eight House seats that are now held by Republicans, and Democrats are leading in four of these races with one tied. Republicans lead three (two by narrow margins).
VIRGINIA 10: GOP incumbent Comstock is struggling to make up lost ground in her Democratic-leaning district, located in the DC suburbs. Voters from both parties are strongly united behind their candidates, but Democrat Wexton is winning independents by 18 points. Comstock trails among men by 1 point and 11 points among women. This poll shows Democratic voter enthusiasm is higher in this district than is Republican voter enthusiasm (75% vs. 59%). Trump’s rating in the district is 38% approve/59% disapprove––and that’s boosting Democratic chances. The average of recent polls has Democrat Wexton ahead by 7.3 points.
MICHIGAN 8––GOP incumbent Bishop, elected in 2014, has a narrow lead in his re-election bid. His popularity rating is 40% favorable/38% unfavorable. Democrat Slotkin has a national security background and has raised more money. Trump carried the district by 7 points. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
ARIZONA 2––This is for the seat of Martha McSally, who is running for the Senate. Democrat Kirkpatrick is a former member of the U.S. House and Republican Peterson is president of the local Chamber of Commerce in Tucson. Clinton carried the district by 5 points in 2016. This appears to be a good Democratic pick-up opportunity. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Democratic.
MINNESOTA 2––Although Trump carried this district by a point, GOP incumbent Lewis is in trouble. His popularity rating is a lousy 31% favorable/42% unfavorable.The district includes Twin City suburbs and rural farmland. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Democratic or toss-up.
PERSONAL POPULARITY
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Donald Trump: 44%/55%
Mike Pence: 43%/47%
Paul Ryan: 29%/59%
Mitch McConnell: 25%/54%
Nancy Pelosi: 31%/56%
Chuck Schumer: 30%/51%
RON’S COMMENT: Every one of these national leaders has upside down ratings, with negatives higher than positives. Interestingly, Speaker Ryan does the worst. His negative is 30 points higher than his positive. Ryan has not fared well in the Trump era…. Note that there is often a difference between personal popularity ratings and job ratings. For example, Pelosi’s nationwide job approval is 35% vs. 31% for her personal popularity rating. But, in Trump’s case, his job approval in this poll is the same as his personal popularity rating (44%). However, his personal negative rating is 2 points above his job disapproval (55% vs. 53%).
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Trafalgar Group (R), Sept. 24-Oct. 2
MICHIGAN: Detroit News, Sept. 30-Oct. 2
MICHIGAN8, ARIZONA 2, MINNESOTA 2: NYT/Siena, Sept. 26-Oct. 1
VIRGINIA 10: CNU, Sept. 23-Oct. 2
CALIFORNIA: Berkeley/IGS, Sept. 16-23
PERSONAL POPULARITY: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 30-Oct. 2
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