Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 4, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Quinnipiac) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, the average would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state
SENATE
NEW JERSEY: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) over Bob Hugin (R): +11 (53-42)
TENNESSEE: Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +5 (48-43-3)
INDIANA: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) over Mike Braun (R): +2 (43-41-L6)
MISSOURI: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R): even (46-46-Others 7)
NORTH DAKOTA: Kevin Cramer (R) over Heidi Heitkamp (D): +12 (53-41-2)
ARIZONA: Kyrsten Sinema (D) over Martha McSally (R): +2 (47-45-2)
MICHIGAN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +18 (53-35)
RON’S COMMENT: Five of these seven polls are for seats now held by Democrats––and Democrats are leading in three of them (NJ, IN, MI), Republicans are leading in one (ND) and one is tied (MO). Of the two seats now held by Republicans, the GOP candidate leads in one (TN) and is behind in one (AZ). What does this mean? It’s possible that the new Senate partisan line-up could be about the same as the current line-up, give or take a seat.
NEW JERSEY––After a run of polls showing a close race, Quinnipiac’s new survey shows Democratic incumbent Menendez up by double digits with a low undecided. This poll has Menendez doing much better in job approval (46% approve/44% disapprove) than in personal popularity (34% favorable/53% unfavorable). Menendez’s legal troubles have badly damaged his reputation: By 59-25, voters say he’s not honest. Republican Hugin wins independents 48-43 and ties men. Menendez wins women 57-38…. Also from this poll: Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey rates 58% approve/37% disapprove and Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy rates 54% approve/34% disapprove.
INDIANA––Three weeks ago, Democrats beat Republicans on high voter interest by 10 points. That advantage has now been erased in this poll. In fact, Republicans now have a 1-point edge on voter interest in Indiana’s Senate race.
TENNESSEE––A 5-point lead is the best Blackburn has recently polled. The average of all recent polls puts the race a tie.
MISSOURI––This one is neck-and-neck. Trump’s rating is 54% approve/45% disapprove in Missouri, much better than his national rating, and that helps Republican Hawley.
NORTH DAKOTA––The previous Fox News poll three weeks ago had Republican Cramer ahead by 4 points. Now they have him up by 12 points.
ARIZONA––Democrat Sinema wins women by 9 and Republican McSally wins men by 6.
GOVERNOR
TENNESSEE: Bill Lee (R) over Karl Dean (D): +17 (53-36)
MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Bill Schuette (R: +12 (47-35)
ARIZONA (Suffolk): Gov. Doug Ducey (R) over David Garcia (D): +12 (50-38)
ARIZONA (Fox): Gov. Doug Ducey (R) over David Garcia (D): +18 (55-37)
RON’S COMMENT: These three states now have GOP governors, and two of the Republican candidates have substantial leads. But, Michigan continues to look like it’ll shift to the Democrats.
TENNESSEE––The average of recent polls has Republican Lee up by 13 points.
MICHIGAN–– The average of recent polls has Democrat Whitmer up by 10 points.
ARIZONA––GOP incumbent Ducey’s margin keeps bouncing around, but he remains clearly in first place. The average of recent polls has him up by 11 points…. Here are some pro-Ducey TV ads:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fEPUuZAiE4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KNlpxB0J_0
KAVANAUGH, FORD AND CONFIRMATION
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Brett Kavanaugh?
Favorable: 40%
Unfavorable: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: Kavanaugh’s favorability is 14 points higher among men than women. Also: 12% of all Democrats, 28% of independents and 76% of Republicans are favorable toward him.
Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court Justice?
Should confirm: 41%
Should not confirm: 47%
Not sure: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: A plurality of voters opposes Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Men favor confirmation more than women by 12 points. Note, there are fewer voters who support confirmation than who approve of President Trump’s job performance (41% vs. 44%).
From what you know now, do you think Brett Kavanaugh is or is not qualified to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court?
Qualified: 44%
Not qualified: 43%
RON’S COMMENT: Kavanaugh does best on the qualifications question, but even there voters are closely split. NOTE: Look at all Kavanaugh’s favorable numbers in Lunchtime Politics today––they are comparable to the size of Trump’s political base (39%-44%).
Do you think Brett Kavanaugh is honest and trustworthy, or not?
Honest and trustworthy: 39%
Not honest and trustworthy: 44%
Not sure: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers on honesty and trustworthiness are a heavy burden for a prospective Supreme Court Justice to carry.
Do you think Christine Blasey Ford was telling the truth or not?
Definitely telling the truth: 31%
Probably telling the truth: 19%
Probably not telling the truth: 17%
Definitely not telling the truth: 20%
Not sure: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: Overall, 50% of voters say Ford was telling the truth and 37% say she wasn’t. Women more than men say Ford was “definitely” telling the truth by a 7-point margin. This poll was completed before submission of the FBI background re-check to the Senate.
Do think Brett Kavanaugh was telling the truth or not?
Definitely telling the truth: 25%
Probably telling the truth: 16%
Probably not telling the truth: 18%
Definitely not telling the truth: 29%
Not sure: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: Overall, 41% of voters say Kavanaugh was telling the truth and 47% say he wasn’t (the same breakdown we saw in the confirmation question). Men more than women say Kavanaugh was “definitely” telling the truth by a 5-point margin.
Do you think that Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted Christine Blasey Ford 36 years ago when both were high school students?
Definitely happened: 21%
Probably happened: 24%
Not sure: 16%
Probably did not happen: 14%
Definitely did not happen: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: The nation is divided on this question, with neither side getting a majority. Overall, 45% of voters say Kavanaugh sexually assaulted Ford and 39% say he didn’t.
Do you approve or disapprove of the decision to have the FBI do an investigation of the allegation of sexual assault?
Approve: 63%
Disapprove: 30%
If it were proven that Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted a woman when they were both high school students 36 years ago, do you think that does or does not disqualify Kavanaugh from being a Supreme Court Justice?
Disqualifies Kavanaugh: 56%
Does not disqualify Kavanaugh: 31%
Not sure: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of voters say it would disqualify Kavanaugh from being on the Court if it were proven that he sexually assaulted a woman when they were both in high school. By party: Three-fourths of Democrats, nearly half of independents and about three out of ten Republicans say the assault would disqualify Kavanaugh.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TENNESSEE, INDIANA, MISSOURI, NORTH DAKOTA, ARIZONA: Fox News, Sept. 29-Oct 2
MICHIGAN: Detroit News, Sept. 30-Oct. 2
KAVANAUGH, FORD AND CONFIRMATION: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 30-Oct. 2
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment