Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 21, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: President Trump has now recovered from last week’s slump when he dropped to 40%…. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 38% (Gallup) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 46%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
FRIDAY’S GENERIC BALLOT FOR CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
The Economist: Democrats +4
Reuters/Ipsos: Democrats +7
CNN: Democrats +10
Current average: Democrats: +7
Last week: Democrats: +9
RON’S COMMENT: The average Democratic advantage in the nationwide generic ballot slipped from 9 points last week to 7 points this week.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
TEXAS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +3 (48-45)
RHODE ISLAND: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) over Bob Flanders (R): +19 (54-35)
RON’S COMMENT: TEXAS: In the last few days, we’ve seen one poll with Republican Cruz up by 9 and another poll with Democrat O’Rourke up by 2. Now this one comes along and splits the difference, showing Cruz up by 3. It also shows O’Rourke winning women by 5 and Cruz winning men by 12. This poll, conducted by a Democratic outfit, has Cruz’s job rating at 43% approve/48% disapprove. O’Rourke’s rating is 39% favorable/40% unfavorable. The average of recent polls has Cruz ahead by 3.3 points…. RHODE ISLAND: Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Democratic.
GOVERNOR
RHODE ISLAND: Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) over Allan Fung (R): +7 (43-36-Ind 7)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Raimondo, who has angered some of her party’s constituencies over the years, is seeking a second term. The average of recent polls has her ahead by 4.5 points in this blue state. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic.
HOUSE
Iowa 1: Abby Finkenauer (D) over Rep. Rod Blum (R): +15 (52-37)
RON’S COMMENT: GOP incumbent Blum––who was elected in 2014 with Tea Party support––is in deep trouble. His personal rating is 35% favorable/53% unfavorable. Though Obama won this district twice, it swung to Trump in 2016. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Democratic.
BRETT KAVANAUGH
Among voters nationwide
Support Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court: 34%
Oppose Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court: 38%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll was taken after the sexual assault allegation against Kavanaugh was made public. Before the allegation story, opposition to Kavanaugh was 29% in the August poll. Now, it’s 38%––up 9 points. Support for Kavanaugh has also grown during that same time, but only slightly––from 33% to 34%…. Groups that have moved the most against Kavanaugh since last month are union households, African-Americans, people over 65 and independents…. 73% of Republicans, 12% of Democrats and 30% of independents support Kavanaugh…. Kavanaugh’s personal rating is 27% positive/30% negative.
CLIMATE CHANGE, HURRICANES
Among voters nationwide
On the subject of climate change do you think….
The world’s climate is changing as a result of human activity: 56%
The world’s climate is changing but NOT because of human activity: 29%
The world’s climate isNOT changing: 7%
Not sure: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: 85% of voters say the climate is changing, and of that 56% say it’s changing because of human activity. By party: 81% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 33% of Republicans say climate is changing as a result of human activity. The constituencies most likely to say that are women (60%), 30-44-year-olds (64%) and those with incomes between $50k and $100k (63%).
Do you think the severity of recent hurricanes is most likely the result of global climate change, or is it just the kind of severe weather events that happen from time to time?
Severe hurricanes the result of climate change: 48%
Severe hurricanes just happen from time to time: 44%
Not sure: 8%
Have you ever lived someplace that regularly experiences severe weather like tornadoes, hurricanes, or floods?
Yes: 50%
No: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: Half the nation’s electorate say they have lived someplace that regularly experiences severe weather like tornadoes, hurricanes, or floods––which is a large and powerful constituency for hurricane protection, recovery and flood insurance. Southerners, more than any other region, says they’ve lived in a place that’s experienced such weather (59%).
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump has handled the response to Hurricane Florence?
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: While many more voters approve than disapprove of Trump’s handling of Hurricane Florence (47-29), more disapprove than approve of his handling of Hurricane Maria (48-40). This poll also finds that 52% of voters believe the death toll from Hurricane Maria was almost 3,000, while only 19% say it was fewer than 100. Interestingly, 27% of Republicans say fewer than 100 as compared to 10% of Democrats.
As far as you know, do you think state and local government officials in North Carolina and South Carolina did a good job or a poor Florence before it hit?
Good job: 73%
Poor job: 6%
Not sure: 21%
As far as you know, do you think federal government officials did a….
Good job: 58%
Poor job: 12%
Not sure: 30%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
RHODE ISLAND: Roger Williams Univ., Sept. 14-17
TEXAS: PPP (D), Sept. 19-20
IOWA 1: Siena/NYT, Sept. 18-20
KAVANAUGH CONFIRMATION: NBC/WSJ, Sept. 16-19
CLIMATE: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 16-18
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