Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, August 30, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters, USA Today) to 48% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll in between is 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state
SENATE
PENNSYLVANIA: Sen. Bob Casey (D) over Lou Barletta (R): +13 (47-34)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Casey holds a big advantage, although he’s polling under 50%. According to the poll, 54% of the state’s voters say they are “very interested” in the November elections. More Democrats (60%) than Republicans (53%) or independents (33%) say they’re “very interested.” More self-identified liberals (62%) than conservatives (53%) or moderates (51%) say they’re “very interested.” Handicappers rate the race likely or safe Democratic.
GOVERNOR
PENNSYLVANIA: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) over Scott Wagner (R): +17 (52-35)
RON’S COMMENT: No surprise here. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Democratic.
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS
Among adults nationwide
Pelosi and the Democrats
[Asked of Democrats] “Who do you think should lead Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives?”
Nancy Pelosi: 28%
Some other Democrat: 36%
RON’S COMMENT: This confirms what many people have been saying, that most Democratic voters would prefer another Democrat to Pelosi as their next House leader.
Republican leaders
[Asked of Republicans] “Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people?”
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Kevin McCarthy: 36%/6%
Jim Jordan: 36%/8%
Steve Scalise: 44%/9%
RON’S COMMENT: Even though a large portion of Republicans don’t know enough about their party’s House leaders to rate them, these three are seen positively among Republican voters nationwide. Scalise does best. However, when the question is who should be the next GOP House leader, Jordan leads with 20%, Scalise is second with 13% and McCarthy runs third (10%) among Republicans.
IMPEACHMENTS
Among voters nationwide
“Do you think the Congress should or should not have impeached and removed President Clinton from office over committing perjury (lying under oath) about the Monica Lewinsky Affair?”
Clinton should have impeached and removed from office: 51%
Clinton should not have impeached and removed from office: 30%
Not sure: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: 40% of Democrats,47% of independents and 63% of Republicans say Bill Clinton should have been impeached and removed from office. (Don’t recall that many Democrats saying at the time that Clinton should be impeached and removed. Just saying.)
“Do you think the Congress should or should not have impeached and removed President Nixon from office over crimes stemming from the Watergate Affair?”
Nixon should have impeached and removed from office: 65%
Nixon should not have impeached and removed from office: 16%
Not sure: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: 76% of Democrats, 56% of independents and 47% of Republicans say Nixon should have been impeached and removed from office.
STORMY
Among voters nationwide
[ASKED OF 2016 TRUMP VOTERS] “If the week before the 2016 Presidential election you had heard a news story in which a porn star claimed she had an affair with Donald Trump just after Melania Trump had given birth to their son, would that have changed your vote for President?”
Yes, I would have voted differently: 5%
No, I still would have voted the same way: 89%
Not sure: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: Only 5% of voters who voted for Trump in 2016 now say they would have changed their vote had they known that a porn star claimed she had an affair with Donald Trump just after Melania Trump had given birth to their son.
[ASKED OF ALL VOTERS] “How important an issue do you think the allegations that Donald Trump had an affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels are to the nation?”
Great importance: 16%
Some importance: 28%
Very little importance: 56%
RON’S COMMENT: 74% of Democrats,40% of independents and 24% of Republicans say the affair is of great or some importance.
FLIPPING
Among voters nationwide
“Do you think it should be legal or illegal for government lawyers to flip or persuade a witness to cooperate in prosecuting a criminal case against another, more important person?”
Flipping should be legal: 44%
Flipping should NOT be legal: 30%
Not sure: 26%
RON’S COMMENT: 62% of Democrats,30% of independents and 18% of Republicans say “flipping” should be legal. Amazing how the partisan issues of the day color thinking on such a wide a variety of matters.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: Franklin & Marshall, Aug. 20-26
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS, IMPEACHMENTS, FLIPPING, STORMY: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 26-28
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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