Models from election forecaster FiveThirty Eight give promising predictions about Democrats likes of winning the House in Novembers mid-term elections.
According to the analytic site, the party has about 70 percent chance of flipping enough Republican-held House seats to take the majority in the chamber. Democrats need to win 23 districts in order to secure majority of the House, but the site predicts they could win up to 32 seats.
Election analysts, in general, agree that Democrats are favorites to win back majority in the chamber, more so because the opposing party has almost always performed well in midterms. What goes in their favor is opposition to both health care and tax policies pushed by the Trump administration.
Forecaster site Real Clear Politics has measured an average of polls which all put Democrats ahead of Republicans when it comes to the November election. Their lead on the generic ballot is at 6.8 percent.
However, the analytic site does not exclude the possibility that the GOP could also retain its majority, giving the party a 30 percent chance of doing so. Also, the three-month period until November leaves the door open for a lot to change.
If Democrats do win majority of the House they would have more power to influence President Donald Trump’s policies and push for their own goals. They could also call for impeaching Trump or for more investigations into his administration.
The model’s predictions are based on several factors, such as polling, fundraising numbers, historical election results and race ratings from nonpartisan analysts in every congressional district.
“Our models are probabilistic in nature; we do a lot of thinking about these probabilities, and the goal is to develop probabilistic estimates that hold up well under real-world conditions,” said Nate Silver who runs the site. “For instance, Democrats’ chances of winning the House are between 7 in 10 and 3 in 4 in the various versions of the model upon launch — right about what Hillary Clinton’s chances were on election night two years ago! — so ignore those probabilities at your peril,” he added.
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