Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, December 2, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Down 1 from Nov. 17 and Nov. 8
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like there was no boost for Biden coming out of the midterm elections or his recent actions. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Emerson) to 45% (Rasmussen, Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Nov. 17 and Nov. 8), putting him at 13 points net negative.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide
GENERAL ELECTION
- Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden: +3 (47-43) Emerson
- Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +1 (44-43) Emerson
RON’S COMMENT: This national poll has DeSantis leading Biden and Biden leading Trump, but it’s close either way.
GEORGIA SENATE RUNOFF
Among voters statewide
- Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +2 (51-49) Emerson
- Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +1 (48-47) Phillips Academy
- Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R): even (50-50) Frederick
- Average of recent polls: D +0.3
RON’S COMMENT: Something for everybody––one poll (the latest) has Warnock slightly ahead, one has Walker slightly ahead and one has it tied…. Looks like a pure turnout contest…. Frederick’s poll report shows independents voting for Warnock 52-48 and says this about the electorate: “Ballot choice is locked in. 97% say they are ‘definitely voting for my choice’; there are virtually no persuadable voters.” In the November election, Warnock led Walker by a point, 49.5% to 48.5%.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
- Joe Biden: 44%/53%
- Donald Trump: 42%/55%
- Kamala Harris: 40%/55%
- Nancy Pelosi: 38%/55%
- Chuck Schumer: 34%/51%
- Kevin McCarthy: 29%/48%
- Mitch McConnell: 21%/67%
RON’S COMMENT: Everybody’s unpopular among the entire national electorate––all of the above are net-negative…. Note that the VP’s numbers are worse than both Biden’s and Trump’s…. While Democrats like their congressional leaders, Republicans are less enthusiastic about theirs. Among only Democrats: Pelosi is 70% favorable/19% unfavorable and Schumer is 60% favorable/23% unfavorable…. Among only Republicans: McCarthy is 45% favorable/31% unfavorable and McConnell is 30% favorable/55% unfavorable.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS: The Economist/YouGov, Nov. 26-29
NOTE: Lunchtime Politics will soon publish its analysis of how polls did in the midterm elections now that the final results are available.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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