LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Current Polling Averages for Senate, Governors

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, November 7, 2022

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 44% (NBC). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), making him 12 points net negative.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

Seats now held by Republicans:

  • PENNSYLVANIA––Oz (R) over Fetterman (D): +0.3 
  • WISCONSIN––Sen. Johnson (R) over Barnes (D): +2.7
  • OHIO––Vance (R) over Ryan (D): +7
  • NORTH CAROLINA––Budd (R) over Beasley (D): +4.8 

Seats now held by Democrats:

  • NEVADA––Laxalt (R) over Sen. Cortez Masto (D): +2
  • GEORGIA––Walker (R) over Sen. Warnock (D): +1.1
  • NEW HAMPSHIRE–– Sen. Hassan (D) over Bolduc (R): +0.8
  • ARIZONA––Sen. Kelly (D) over Masters (R): +0.8
  • WASHINGTON––Sen. Murray (D) over Smiley (R): +3

RON’S COMMENT: The best chance Democrats have to flip a Republican seat is in Pennsylvania. GOP candidates have average polling leads in the other three states that are now held by Republican senators (Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina)…. Republicans are ahead in two seats now held by Democrats (Nevada, Georgia), but have small leads in both. If these leads pan out, Republicans will secure a Senate majority of at least 51 seats, no matter what happens in Pennsylvania. Counting on Georgia is tricky, however, it’s not only close but could go into a runoff. While Laxalt (R) leads the polling average in Nevada, the state is known for last-minute Democratic turnout surges. 

  • Best Republican scenario (that’s not too far-fetched): They hold Pennsylvania and pick up Nevada, Georgia and either New Hampshire or Arizona. Result: 53-seat Republican majority. If they win both New Hampshire and Arizona, it’s 54 seats. If they somehow pick up Washington State, which would be a big upset, they’d have 55 seats. (In Louisiana, we call that lagniappe). Of course, if the GOP loses Pennsylvania and Georgia goes into a runoff, it complicates the GOP’s position. That makes Nevada an essential pick-up––and there is buzz that it may not be the cinch many Republican operatives have been expecting.
  • Best Democratic scenario (that’s not too far-fetched): They lose Georgia or Nevada, pick up Pennsylvania and hold their incumbents in New Hampshire, Arizona and Washington. Result: 50-50 Senate and Democrats maintain control based on the Vice President’s power to break ties. 

Among voters statewide

Seats now held by Republicans:

  • ARIZONA: Lake (R) over Hobbs (D): +2.8
  • GEORGIA: Gov. Kemp (R) over Abrams (D): +7.8
  • TEXAS: Gov. Abbott (R) over O’Rourke (D): +8 
  • FLORIDA: Gov. DeSantis (R) over Crist (D): +11
  • OKLAHOMA: Gov. Stitt (R) over Hofmeister (D): +4.8

Seats now held by Democrats:

  • NEVADA: Lombardo (R) over Gov. Sisolak (D): +3.2
  • WISCONSIN: Michels (R) over Gov. Evers (D): +0.3
  • MICHIGAN: Gov. Whitmer (D) over Dixon (R): +3.3
  • MINNESOTA: Gov. Walz (DFL) over Jensen (R): +7.3
  • PENNSYLVANIA: Shapiro (D) over Mastriano (R): +9.8
  • KANSAS: Gov. Kelly (D) over Schmidt (R): +5
  • NEW MEXICO: Gov. Lujan Grisham (D) over Ronchetti (R): +5
  • NEW YORK: Gov. Hochul (D) over Zeldin (R): +5.4
  • OREGON: Kotek (D) over Drazan (R): +1.5
  • COLORADO: Gov. Polis (D) over Ganahl (R): +9.3

RON’S COMMENT: There are now 28 Republican governors and 22 Democratic. In this election, Republicans lead two states––Nevada and Wisconsin by a whisper––in their efforts to flip Democratic governorships. Poll averages don’t show Democrats leading in any states with GOP governors, although Democrats believe Arizona is still in play. It’s always possible there could be a sleeper or two.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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