LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Party Issue Trust – Economy – General Feelings – New Polling for President, Senate, Governor

Your Daily Polling Update for Sunday, November 6, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 45% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday), putting him at 11 points net negative.

PRESIDENT: 2024 
Among voters statewide

• NEW HAMPSHIRE: Biden over Trump: +4 (45-41) Emerson
• OREGON: Biden over Trump: +16 (51-35) Emerson
• ARIZONA: Trump over Biden: +4 (46-42) Emerson
• OHIO: Trump over Biden: +12 (50-38) Emerson

RON’S COMMENT: In 2020, Biden carried New Hampshire by about 7 points, Arizona by 0.3 points and Oregon by 16 points. Trump won Ohio by 8 points.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENT:  

• Republicans lead every Senate race average reported today except for Kelly (D) in Arizona, and he had a small edge.
• In Iowa, the Selzer poll that gave Grassley a dangerously low 3-point lead less than three weeks ago now shows the 89-year-old incumbent with a 12-point lead.
• In Ohio, Vance (R) appears to have consolidated his support and is running well ahead of Ryan (D). Same is true for Rubio (R) in Florida.
• In Wisconsin, Johnson (R) maintains a lead, though it’s still fairly close.
• Georgia and Pennsylvania continue to be close with Republicans holding wobbly leads.

NEVADA 

• Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez (D): +6 (50-44) InsiderAdvantage-R
• Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez (D): +3 (46-43) Cygnal-R
• Sen. Catherine Cortez (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +1 (45-44) KA-R
• Average of these polls: R +2.7  

PENNSYLVANIA 

• Mehmet Oz (R) over John Fetterman (D) +2 (48-46) InsiderAdvantage-R
• Mehmet Oz (R) over John Fetterman (D) +2 (48-46) Trafalgar-R
• John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +6 (51-45) Marist
• Average of all recent polls: R +0.4

ARIZONA 

• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): even (49-48) Emerson
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +3 (50-47) Marist
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +1 (47-46) KA-R
• Average of all recent polls: D +1.2 

GEORGIA 

• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R): even (48-48) Marist
• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R): +6 (49-43) SurveyUSA
• Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +3 (48-45) Amber-R
• Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +7 (52-45) Echelon
• Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +4 (49-45) Remington-R
• Average of all recent polls: R +1.6  

IOWA

• Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) over Michael Franken (D): +12 (53-41) Selzer

OHIO 

• J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +6 (49-43) Cygnal-R
• J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +9 (53-44) Emerson
• Average of all recent polls: R +6.7

WISCONSIN:

• Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +3 (50-47) Trafalgar-R
• Average of all recent polls: R +2.5

FLORIDA

• Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +7 (51-44) YouGov
• Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +9 (49-40) Amber-R
• Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +7 (52-45) Civiqs
• Average of recent polls: R +6.8 

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENTS: 

• After a long run of polls showing the Republican slightly ahead, looks like Oregon is coming home to the Democrats.
• Whitmer’s (D) margin in Michigan has narrowed. Is she threatened by last-minute GOP momentum in this critical swing state?
• Mills (D) leads in Maine, but her margin is less than awesome.
• Lake (R) holds on in Arizona, Lombardo (R) holds on in Nevada.
• In Georgia, Kemp (R) has consolidated his position and is well ahead. Same for DeSantis (R) in Florida.
• Wisconsin still even.

NEVADA 

• Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +5 (49-44) InsiderAdvantage-R
• Average of all recent polls: R +3.2 

ARIZONA

• Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +4 (49-45) KA-R 
• Average of recent polls: R +2.5 

GEORGIA 

• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +7 (50-43) Echelon
• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +8 (53-45) Marist
• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +7 (52-45) SurveyUSA
• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +9 (52-43) Amber-R
• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +14 (55-41) Remington-R
• Average of these polls: R +9

WISCONSIN

• Tim Michels (R) over Gov. Tony Evers (D): +2 (50-48) Trafalgar-R
• Average of recent polls: even 

FLORIDA 

• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +10 (53-43) InsiderAdvantage-R
• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +13 (53-40) Amber-R
• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +9 (54-45) Civiqs
• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +12 (54-42) Siena
• Average of these polls: R +11

MAINE

• Gov. Janet Mills (D) over Paul LePage (R): +6 (49-43) SurveyUSA

OREGON

• Tina Kotek (D) over Christine Drazan (R): +5 (46-41-9) Emerson
• Average of all recent polls: D +2.3

MICHIGAN  

• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +2 (50-48) Mitchell
• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +3 (50-47) Cygnal-R
• Average of these polls: D +2.5

NEW YORK 

• Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +5 (49-44) Patriot Polling
• Average of all recent polls: D +7

PENNSYLVANIA 

• Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +8 (51-43) InsiderAdvantage-R
• Average of recent polls: D +9.8

PARTY ISSUE TRUST
Among voters nationwide

Which political party, the Democrats or the Republicans do you trust to do a better job handling….? 

% = Democrats/Republicans

• Crime: 34%/54% (R+20)
• The economy: 38%/52% (R+14)
• Inflation: 38%/50% (R+12)
• Immigration: 44%/46% (R+2)
• Education and schools: 47%/44% (D+3)
• Abortion: 50%/37% (D+13)
• Threats to democracy: 47%/43% (D+4)
• Climate change: 51%/32% (+19)

RON’S COMMENT: Going into the final days of the election, Republicans lead on crime, the economy, inflation and immigration. Democrats lead on climate change, threats to democracy, abortion and education and schools. 

VOTE FOR CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide

Is your vote for Congress this November more about expressing your general feeling about the direction the country is going in, or more about a specific issue or issues that you care strongly about?

• More about general feeling of the direction of the country: 58%
• More about specific issue or issues: 32%

RON’S COMMENT: This general feeling would seem to favor Republicans, underscoring the basis of a possible red wave.

SATISFACTION WITH ECONOMY
Among voters nationwide

How satisfied are you with the state of the U.S. economy today are you – very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the state of the economy?

• Very satisfied: 3% 
• Somewhat satisfied: 16% 
• Somewhat dissatisfied: 31% 
• Very dissatisfied: 50%

RON’S COMMENT: 81% of voters are dissatisfied with the economy, only 19% are satisfied.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ECONOMY, VOTE FOR CONGRESS, PARTY ISSUE TRUST: Washington Post-ABC News, Nov. 3-5

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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