Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, November 3, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 37% (Quinnipiac) to 46% (Rasmussen). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (down 1 from yesterday), putting him at 11 points net negative.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide nationwide
NATIONAL: REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 49%
- Ron DeSantis: 24%
- Mike Pence: 9%
- Nikki Haley: 3%
- Mitt Romney: 2%
- Liz Cheney: 2%
- Ted Cruz: 2%
- Others (with 1% or less): 4%
RON’S COMMENT: About half of Republican primary voters nationwide are either opposed, or reluctant, to support Trump for a third presidential nomination. DeSantis gets about half as many votes as does Trump. Other than Pence, nobody else is in the game. (Poll by Politico/Morning Consult)
PENNSYLVANIA: GENERAL ELECTION
- Donald Trump and Joe Biden: even (44-44) Emerson
- RON’S COMMENT: Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by a point.
MICHIGAN: GENERAL ELECTION
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +3 (47-44) Emerson
- RON’S COMMENT: Not good for Biden. He won Michigan in 2020 by nearly 3 points.
NEVADA: GENERAL ELECTION
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +5 (47-42) Emerson
- RON’S COMMENT: Also not good for Biden. He won Nevada in 2020 by nearly 3 points.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
BATTLEGROUND STATE AVERAGES:
- NEW HAMPSHIRE––Bolduc (R) over Hassan (D): +.07
- GEORGIA––Walker (R) over Warnock (D): +0.6
- NEVADA––Laxalt (R) over Cortez Masto (D): +1.8
- PENNSYLVANIA––Oz (R) over Fetterman (D): +.02
- WISCONSIN––Johnson (R) over Barnes (D): +2
- OHIO––Vance (R) over Ryan (D): +2
- NORTH CAROLINA––Budd (R) over Beasley (D): +4.3
- ARIZONA––Kelly (D) over Masters (R): +0.7
- WASHINGTON––Murray (D) over Smiley (R): +3
RON’S COMMENT: Based on our polling averages, Republicans are ahead in seven of the nine battleground states (above). If the GOP ultimately wins these seven races, they would have a 53-seat Senate majority (picking up New Hampshire, Nevada and Georgia). But note that tiny GOP leads in Pennsylvania, Georgia and New Hampshire are hanging by threads. The big question is whether Republican winds will further push these races to their side in the final 48 hours? Or will individual Democratic candidates gut out some wins? When you have this many close contests, anything can happen.
RON’S COMMENT:
- The Pennsylvania race is unsettled…. Republican operatives saw the debate as a turning point in their favor, but are disappointed it hasn’t so far given them a bigger lead in trial heats. Nonetheless, Oz remains slightly on top in our poll average…. Says Emerson pollster: “A plurality of voters (44%) say the debate improved their opinion of Mehmet Oz, while 25% say it worsened their opinion of Oz, and 31% say it made no difference. Half of voters (50%) say the debate worsened their opinion of Fetterman, 20% say it improved their opinion of Fetterman, and 31% say it made no difference.”
- In Georgia, Walker (R) still leads the poll average, but his margin is less than a point. Note that the Fox News poll reports two results, one based on a sample of all registered voters and one based on a sample of those who have already voted + say they are certain to vote.
- Arizona really tight. Can Kelly (D) survive Election Day turnout?
- Bolduc (R) now has a tiny lead in New Hampshire poll average. Will it hold?
- Nevada––looking better for Laxalt (R).
- Bouncing polls in Colorado, but average still favors Bennet (D).
PENNSYLVANIA
- Mehmet Oz (R) over John Fetterman (D): +1 (48-47) Susquehanna
- Mehmet Oz (R) over John Fetterman (D): +1 (48-47) Emerson
- John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +3 (45-42) Fox
- John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +2 (47-45) Suffolk
- Average of recent polls: R +.02
NEVADA
- Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +5 (48-43) Susquehanna
- Average of recent polls: R +1.8
GEORGIA
- Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +1 (46-45) Fox already voted + certain to vote sample
- Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +1 (44-43) Fox registered voter sample
- Average of recent polls: R +0.6
NEW HAMPSHIRE
- Don Bolduc (R) over Sen. Maggie Hassan (D): +1 (47-46) Trafalgar-R
- Average of recent polls: R +.07
WISCONSIN
- Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +2 (47-45) Siena
- Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +2 (50-48) Marquette
- Average: R +2
ARIZONA
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (47-45) Fox
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): even (49-49) Civiqs
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): even (47-47) Phillips Academy
- Average of recent polls: D +0.7
NORTH CAROLINA
- Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +5 (51-46) Emerson
- Average of recent polls: R +4.3
FLORIDA
- Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +6 (51-45) InsiderAdvantage-R
- Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +7 (52-45) Civiqs
- Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +4 (50-46) Victory Insights
- Average of recent polls: R +5.7
COLORADO
- Sen. Michael Bennet (D) over Joe O’Dea (R): +2 (48-46) Trafalgar-R
- Sen. Michael Bennet (D) over Joe O’Dea (R): +8 (51-43) Emerson
- Sen. Michael Bennet (D) over Joe O’Dea (R): +14 (56-42) Univ. of Colorado
- Average of recent polls: D +8
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENTS:
- Republican still leads in Oregon even as independent’s vote drops.
- New York’s Hochul (D) looking better in two polls, one Democratic and one nonpartisan.
- In Florida, DeSantis (R) ahead by double digits.
- New poll in Nevada buoys Lombardo (R).
- GOP poll shows tightening in Colorado.
- Still close in Wisconsin.
NEVADA
- Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +4 (50-46) Emerson
- Average of recent polls: R +0.8
FLORIDA
- Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +10 (53-43) InsiderAdvantage-R
- Average of recent polls: R +12
WISCONSIN
- Gov. Tony Evers (D) and Tim Michels (R): even (48-48) Marquette
- Gov. Tony Evers (D) over Tim Michels (R): +2 (47-45) Siena
- Average of recent polls: Even
GEORGIA
- Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +6 (49-43) Fox
- Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +5 (49-44) Seven Letter
- Average of recent polls: R +6.4
NEW YORK
- Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +9 (54-45) Emerson
- Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +12 (54-42) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: D +5.5
OREGON
- Christine Drazan (R) over Tina Kotek (D): +3 (44-41-5) Nelson
- Average of recent polls: R +2.5
COLORADO
- Gov. Jared Polis (D) over Heidi Ganahl (R): +7 (50-43) Trafalgar-R
- Average of recent polls: D +10
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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