OPEC Raises Long-Term Oil Demand View

OPEC called for trillions of dollars in investment in the oil industry over the next two decades. 

OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil demand in the medium and longer-term in its annual outlook and said $12.1 trillion of investment is needed to meet this demand, despite the energy transition away from fossil fuels. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ 2022 World Oil Outlook contrasts that of other forecasters, which see oil demand reaching a plateau before 2030 because of the rise of renewable energy and electric cars. 

OPEC believes there will be a booming demand for fossil fuels that stretches far into the middle of the century. 

The oil bloc’s annual report on long-term energy trends said the oil industry would require massive investments by 2045 totaling $12.1 trillion to satisfy demand and keep global energy security concerns at bay. This is $300 billion more than was expected last year. 

OPEC said demand for oil will be stronger than expected in the coming years and remain so over two decades as developing nations’ economies and population rates boom. 

Other predictions from companies and banks see it differently. They predict that oil demand will peak earlier. 

The International Energy Agency said last week for the first time in its history of modeling that demand for all fossil fuels was set to peak, and that oil demand would level off in the middle of the next decade. 

OPEC believes oil demand will increase in 2023 compared to 2022. OPEC also raised its demand forecasts for the medium term to 2027. 

OPEC said the upward revision reflects a more robust recovery now seen in 2022 and 2023 and a strong focus on energy security issues leading to a slower substitution of oil by other energy supplies. 

Natural gas prices have soared due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has led to rising energy costs and a return to reliance on fossil fuels. Many countries are trying to put investments into green energy and transition to renewables in order to stave off a looming climate catastrophe. 

However, energy security and energy prices, as well as an approaching winter for the northern hemisphere, have meant more oil is being used. 

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