LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Republicans Leading in Enough States for Senate Majority – Washington Tightens – Economic Issues Dominate

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 31, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 from Saturday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters, Trafalgar-R) to 45% (Rasmussen). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (up 1 from Saturday), putting him at 13 points net negative.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

BATTLEGROUND STATE AVERAGES:

• NEVADA––Laxalt (R) over Cortez Masto (D): +2
• GEORGIA––Walker (R) over Warnock (D): +1.7 
• PENNSYLVANIA––Oz (R) over Fetterman (D): +0.5 
• WISCONSIN––Johnson (R) over Barnes (D): +5 
• OHIO––Vance (R) over Ryan (D): +2 
• NORTH CAROLINA––Budd (R) over Beasley (D): +4
• NEW HAMPSHIRE––Hassan (D) over Bolduc (R): +1.3 
• ARIZONA––Kelly (D) over Masters (R): +2.6
• WASHINGTON––Murray (D) over Smiley (R): +3.5

RON’S COMMENT: Based on our polling averages, Republicans are now ahead in six of the nine battleground states (above). If the GOP ultimately wins these six races, they would have a gain of two Senate seats (Georgia and Nevada). That would be enough to give them a 52-seat Senate majority…. Poll averages also show the party that now holds seats in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Washington, Arizona and Ohio are leading, which means no party pick-ups either way in these seven states…. But––note that some of these averages show very small margins that could easily shift in the days ahead.
 
NEW POLLS:
 
RON’S COMMENT:  

• Some good news for Democrats: Siena dropped new polls today in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada that look better for Democrats than other recent polls.
• Incumbent Murray’s (D) lead is dwindling in Washington. That’s a good sign for Republicans––shows a widening playing field. Worth watching. 

WASHINGTON

• Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +1 (49-48) Trafalgar-R
• Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +6 (51-45) Triton
• Average: D +3.5

NEVADA

• Adam Laxalt (R) and Sen. Catherine Cortez (D): even (47-47) Siena
• Average of recent polls: R +2  

PENNSYLVANIA

• John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +5 (49-44) Siena
• Average of recent polls: R +0.5

GEORGIA

• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +3 (49-46) Siena
• Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +1 (49-46) Atlanta J-C
• Average of recent polls: R +1.7

ARIZONA

• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +5 (51-45) Siena
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (48-46) OH Predictive
• Average of recent polls: D +2.6 

OHIO

• J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +4 (48-44) Cygnal
• Average of recent polls: R +2

MISSOURI

• Eric Schmitt (R) over Trudy Busch Valentine (D): +9 (51-42) Missouri Scout/Remington

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENTS: 

• Latest polls in New Mexico have incumbent Grisham (D) well ahead; that’s much better for Democrats than the recent Trafalgar-R poll, which had challenger Ronchetti (R) slightly ahead. Grisham has been under heavy attack on crime and integrity issues. 
• Tracking shows Whitmer (D) maintaining lead in Michigan. Would like to see another poll for confirmation.

ARIZONA

• Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +2 (49-47) 
• Average of recent polls: R +2.3 

NEW MEXICO

• Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +7 (46-39) SurveyUSA
• Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +8 (50-42-3) Research & Polling
• Average of recent polls: D +4.7

MICHIGAN  

• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +7 (51-44) Cygnal
• Average of recent polls: D +6.7

TOP VOTING ISSUES
Among voters nationwide

Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress?

• Economic issues: 46%
• Women’s issues (abortion, birth control, equal pay): 12%
• Senior issues (Medicare, Social Security): 10%
• National security issues: 10%
• Energy issues: 7%
• Health care issues: 6%
• Education issues: 3%

RON’S COMMENT: Economic issues continue to top the list…. On economic issues: 58% of Republicans, 45% of independents and 36% of Democratic say it’s their top voting concern…. On women’s issues: 4% of Republicans, 12% of independents and 20% of Democratic say it’s their top voting concern…. Note: Independents, who are often swing voters, cite economic issues over women’s issues, 45-12.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TOP VOTING ISSUES: Politico/Morning Consult, Oct. 21-23

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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