Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 28, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 45% (Rasmussen). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), putting him at 11 points net negative.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide
NATIONAL
- Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4 (46-42) Suffolk
GEORGIA
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +8 (47-39) Rasmussen
RON’S COMMENT: Biden has a lead in the national polling, but Trump leads swing-state Georgia by a substantial margin. The Georgia numbers are not good news for Democrats in current Peach State Senate and gubernatorial races.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENT:
- Post-debate poll in Pennsylvania shows Oz (R) overtaking Fetterman (D). Oz wins men by 21 points and Fetterman wins women by 14 points. But––this poll shows Oz getting 24% of the Black vote, which Democrats insist won’t happen. Oz is also winning independents by 66-23, which Democrats also question.
- Democrats concerned Georgia may be getting away from them.
- Now Democrats have something to worry about in New Hampshire. New poll shows a tie.
- Cortez Masto (D) runs even in one poll and behind in another; Nevada is proving to be quite the battleground this year.
- Two polls paint different pictures in Ohio.
- Bennet (D) OK in Colorado.
PENNSYLVANIA
- Mehmet Oz (R) over John Fetterman (D): +3 (48-45) InsiderAdvantage
- Average of recent polls: D +0.3
GEORGIA
- Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +5 (48-43) Rasmussen
- Average of recent polls: R +1.3
NEVADA
- Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +4 (50-46) Trafalgar-R
- Adam Laxalt (R) and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): even (45-45) Echelon
- Average of recent polls: R +1.3
NEW HAMPSHIRE
- Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and Don Bolduc (R): even (45-45) co/efficient
- Average of recent polls: D +1.3
OHIO
- Tim Ryan (D) over J.D. Vance (R): +4 (50-46) Baldwin Wallace Univ.
- J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +5 (49-44) Cygnal
- Average: R +0.5
COLORADO
- Sen. Michael Bennet (D) over Joe O’Dea (R): +16 (50-34) co/efficient
- Average of recent polls: D +11
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENTS:
- Time is rapidly running out for Abrams (D) in Georgia; Kemp (R) is well ahead.
- GOP poll has Lombardo pulling away in Nevada, another poll has it close.
- Drazan (R) continues to run ahead in Oregon, but margin still slim.
- Newsom (D) in California holds big lead…. Prop 26 (in-person wagering and sports betting on tribal lands) is losing 57-34…. Prop 27 (online and mobile sports betting outside tribal lands) is losing 67-26…. Prop 30 (income taxes on wealthy to fund programs to reduce air pollution and prevent wildfires) is losing 52-41.
- Maryland: Get your tickets for Wes Moore’s (D) inauguration.
NEVADA
- Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +7 (51-44) Trafalgar-R
- Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +1 (45-44) Echelon
- Average of recent polls: R +4.7
GEORGIA
- Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +10 (51-41) Rasmussen
- Average of recent polls: R +8.5
OREGON
- Christine Drazan (R) over Tina Kotek (D): +2 (42-40) Trafalgar-R
- Average of recent polls: R +1.7
PENNSYLVANIA
- Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +8 (50-42) InsiderAdvantage
- Average of recent polls: D +8.5
MARYLAND
- Wes Moore (D) over Dan Cox (R): +31 (58-27) Balt. Sun
- Average of recent polls: D +31.5
CALIFORNIA
- Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) over Brian Dahle (R): +19 (55-36) PPIC
- Average of recent polls: D +20.5
LABELS
Among likely voters nationwide
Would you call yourself any of the following things? Check all that apply.
- Pro-life: 26%
- Pro-choice: 40%
- Liberal: 27%
- Moderate: 31%
- Conservative: 37%
- Socialist: 9%
- Libertarian: 9%
- None of the above: 4%
RON’S COMMENT:
- Among Democrats, 8% are pro-life, 53% pro-choice, 48% liberal, 34% moderate, 7% conservative, 16% socialist, 5% Libertarian.
- Among Republicans, 39% are pro-life, 15% pro-choice, 6% liberal, 30% moderate, 20% conservative, 8% socialist, 12% Libertarian.
- Among independents, 17% are pro-life, 29% pro-choice, 15% liberal, 30% moderate, 20% conservative, 8% socialist, 12% Libertarian.
CANDIDATE QUALITIES VS. PARTY, POLICIES
Among voters nationwide
What is more important to you in deciding which candidate to vote for?
- The character and personal qualities of a candidate: 18%
- The party and policies a candidate supports: 28%
- Both equally important: 54%
RON’S COMMENT: 19% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans and 20% of independents say candidate qualities…. 28% of Democrats, 31% of Republicans and 21% of independents say party and policies.
REPUBLICANS: TRUMP VS. PARTY
Among Republicans nationwide
[ASKED OF REPUBLICANS] Would you say that you are more a supporter of Donald Trump or the Republican Party?
- Trump: 38%
- Republican Party: 58%
- Not sure: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Among Republicans, there is a split by gender––48% of men are more Trump supporters, while 31% of women are; 49% of men are more party supporters, while 60% of women are…. Interestingly, there is little difference by ideology; 56% of moderate Republicans and 55% of conservative Republicans say they’re more party supporters.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
LABELS, CANDIDATE QUALITIES, TRUMP VS. PARTY: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 22-25
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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