Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 27, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Emerson) to 45% (YouGov). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Tuesday), putting him at 12 points net negative.
- A Suffolk poll just released finds that VP Kamala Harris‘ rating is lopsidedly negative: 34% favorable/55% unfavorable.
- The Suffolk poll also finds that 41% of voters wants a Congress that “mostly cooperates with President Biden” and 49% wants a Congress that “mostly stands up to President Biden.” Not good for Democrats.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENT:
- Kelly’s (D) lead dwindling in Arizona. Can he survive a late GOP wave, even a small one?
- Warnock slightly on top, but Georgia could still go either way…. The new Monmouth poll reports multiple turnout scenarios. Their “potential voter pool” sample shows Warnock +5, but their sample of “extremely motivated” voters shows Warnock +1. Their sample of “more enthusiastic” voters has Walker ahead +11. Looks like Monmouth is covered no matter what happens…. Monmouth finds Biden rates 42% favorable and 57% unfavorable in Georgia, while Trump rates 43% favorable and 56% unfavorable.
- Johnson (R) up in Wisconsin, Grassley (R) up in Iowa.
- Budd (R) posts modest, though consistent, leads in North Carolina. Beasley (D) has yet to break through.
- Rubio (R) appears to be out of danger in Florida.
- Democrats hold solid leads in Connecticut, Illinois.
NEVADA
- Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +1 (49-48) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +0.5
ARIZONA
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (45-43) InsiderAdvantage
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): even (47-47) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: D +1.5
GEORGIA
- Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +5 (49-44) Monmouth
- Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +2 (49-47) ECU
- Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +3 (47-44) co/efficient
- Average: D +1.3
IOWA
- Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) over Michael Franken (D): +8 (52-44) Civiqs
- Average of recent polls: R +7.3
WISCONSIN:
- Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +5 (51-46) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +3
NORTH CAROLINA
- Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +4 (47-43) Cygnal-R
- Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +6 (50-44) ECU
- Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +4 (50-44) Marist
- Average of recent polls: R +4.5
FLORIDA
- Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +7 (51-44) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +8
ILLINOIS
- Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) over Kathy Salvi (R): +10 (49-39) Emerson
- Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) over Kathy Salvi (R): +16 (56-40) Civiqs
- Average: D +13
CONNECTICUT
- Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D) over Leora Levy (R): +13 (53-40) Emerson
- Average of recent polls: D +14
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENTS:
- GOP winds blowing in a lot of places.
- New poll in Arizona shows Lake (R) blowing the doors off. Trend or outlier? Another poll shows closer race but Lake still ahead.
- DeSantis (R) way up in Florida; even his lackluster debate performance won’t likely derail this juggernaut.
- Michels (R) edging Evers (D) in Wisconsin; Drazan (R) edges Kotek (D) in Oregon; Lombardo (R) edges Sisolak (D) in Nevada.
- Whitmer (D) holds on in Michigan, Hochul (D) holds on in New York
- Abbott well ahead in Texas, though new poll shows smaller gap.
NEVADA
- Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +1 (48-47) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +1.3
ARIZONA
- Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +11 (54-43) InsiderAdvantage
- Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +4 (50-46) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +4.3
WISCONSIN
- Tim Michels (R) over Gov. Tony Evers (D): +1 (49-48) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +0.5
FLORIDA
- Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +12 (54-42) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +12.3
TEXAS
- Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +4 (46-42) Shaw
- Average of recent polls: R +8.3
OREGON
- Christine Drazan (R) over Tina Kotek (D): +2 (42-40-13) Trafalgar-R
- Average of recent polls: R +1.7
MICHIGAN
- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +6 (51-45) Cyngal-R
- Average of recent polls: D +3.5
NEW YORK
- Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +11 (54-43) Civiqs
- Average of recent polls: D +7
CONNECTICUT
- Ned Lamont (D) over Bob Stefanowski (R): +11 (52-41) Emerson
- Average of recent polls: D +11
ILLINOIS
- Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) over Darren Bailey (R): +9 (50-41) Emerson
- Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) over Darren Bailey (R): +17 (56-39) Civiqs
- Average of recent polls: D +13.7
SOUTH DAKOTA
- Gov. Kristi Noem (R) over Jamie Smith (D): +19 (56-37) Emerson
- Average of recent polls: R +11.5
PENNSYLVANIA
- Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +9 (54-45) CBS
- Average of recent polls: D +8.5
VOTER ENTHUSIASM
Among voters
Compared to voting in previous Congressional election years, are you more or less enthusiastic about voting in this year’s election?
% = More enthusiastic
- Democrats: 38%
- Republicans: 48%
- Independents: 25%
- Men: 41%
- Women: 31%
- Whites: 39%
- Blacks: 33%
- Hispanics: 32%
- 18-29: 24%
- 65+: 50%
RON’S COMMENT: Republicans and their constituent groups are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats and their groups.
POLITICAL ACTION IN PAST TWO YEARS
Among adults nationwide
In the past two years, which of the following have you done? Check all that apply.
% = Democrats/ Republicans
- Gone to a protest: 13%/ 5%
- Signed a petition: 32%/ 21%
- Donated to campaign: 27%/ 15%
- Posted about politics on social media: 38%/ 27%
- None of the above: 36%/ 54%
RON’S COMMENT: Though Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting this year, over the past two years Democrats say they have participated in far more political activities.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VOTER ENTHUSIASM, POLITICAL ACTION IN PAST TWO YEARS: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 22-25
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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