Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 24, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Emerson) to 45% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday), putting him at 12 points net negative.
CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC PREFERENCE
(Average of most recent nationwide polls)
Republicans: +3.4 (up from +2.8 Friday)
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENTS:
- Vance (R) holds edge in Ohio based on three new polls…. In Marist poll: 15% of voters for Republican Gov. Mike DeWine (R) are also voting for Democrat Ryan in the Senate race…. But––here’s the brick wall Ryan (D) is running up against: Biden’s job rating is 39% approve/57% disapprove in Ohio; among independents, Biden is 31% approve/65% disapprove.
- Laxalt (R) ahead in Nevada based on poll for conservative group.
- Georgia race remains tight with Warnock (D) edging Walker (R).
- Fetterman (D) in Pennsylvania and Kelly (D) in Arizona still lead, but margins too close for comfort.
- Murray (D) is winning in Washington, but her average margin is less than awesome.
OHIO
- J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +1 (46-45) Marist
- J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +3 (49-46) DFP-D
- J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +4 (47-43) Cygnal-R
- Average: R +2.7
NEVADA
- Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez (D): +2 (48-46) InsiderAdvantage
- Average of recent polls: R +1.5
PENNSYLVANIA
- John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +3 (46-53) Echelon
- Average of recent polls: D +1.8
ARIZONA
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (47-45) co-efficient
- Average of recent polls: D +2.3
GEORGIA
- Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +1 (48-47) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: D +1
WASHINGTON
- Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +8 (49-41) SurveyUSA
- Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +3 (48-45) co-efficient
- Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +10 (53-42) PPP-D
- Average: D +7
OREGON
- Sen. Ron Wyden (D) over Jo Rae Perkins (R): +11 (51-40)
- Average of recent polls: D +15
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENTS:
- Florida’s Hispanic voters: A new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida finds that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leads his opponent Charlie Crist (D) among Hispanic voters, 51-44. DeSantis lost Hispanics by 10 points four years ago…. Hispanics rate the governor’s job performance 56% approve/41% disapprove…. Hispanics in Florida also positively rate DeSantis’ handling of the relocation of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, 50% to 43%…. DeSantis wins Cuban American voters 72-22…. DeSantis has spent more on Spanish-language TV ads than Crist has spent on all of his ads combined. DeSantis has run 10 times more ads in Spanish than has Crist…. The big question: Can DeSantis win Miami-Dade? Trump came within 7 points in 2020.
- Republicans lead in Nevada and Oregon, states that now have Democratic governors.
- In Michigan, two GOP-affiliated polls are out––one has the race a tie and the other gives Whitmer (D) a decent lead. This is rapidly becoming a really interesting contest.
- Two Republican incumbents looking solid: Kemp in Georgia and Abbott in Texas.
OREGON
- Christine Drazan (R) over Tina Kotek (D): +1 (43-42-12) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +3
MICHIGAN
- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +6 (50-44) Cygnal-R
- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): even (48-48) Trafalgar-R
- Average of recent polls: D +3.3
NEVADA
- Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +6 (49-43)
- Average of recent polls: R +2.3
GEORGIA
- Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +10 (53-43) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +8
TEXAS
- Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +9 (53-44) Emerson
- Average of recent polls: R +9.3
VOTER MESSAGES
Among voters nationwide
If you could send one message with your vote this year so the people who win the election know what you mean with your vote, in a SHORT phrase, what would that message be? (Based on coded verbatim)
(All those that scored 2% or more)
- Be More Effective/Productive/Do More: 14%
- Fix the Economy/Reduce the Cost Of Living: 14%
- Protect Women’s Rights: 10%
- More Bipartisanship/Work for The People: 9%
- Save This Country/Turn This Country Around: 8%
- Honesty/Integrity/Trust: 7%
- Focus on the Problems Within United States: 6%
- Listen to Your Constituents: 5%
- Get Rid of Trump: 3%
- Uphold Election Integrity/Voter Rights: 3%
- Border/Immigration Control: 3%
CANDIDATE MORAL FAILURES
Among voters nationwide
- When GOP voters who say they prefer Republicans to control Congress were asked if a GOP candidate they support was revealed to have a moral failure in their business, marriage or personal life, 67% of these voters said they would still vote for the Republican candidate. By contrast, a combined 22% said they’d skip the race, vote for a Democrat or for a third-party candidate.
- When Democratic voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress were asked the same question, 63% said they would still vote for the Democratic candidate, while 26% said they wouldn’t — either by skipping the race, voting for the GOP candidate or voting third party.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CANDIDATE MORAL FAILURES, VOTER MESSAGES: NBC News/Hart/POS, Oct. 14-18
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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