Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 24, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Emerson) to 45% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday), putting him at 12 points net negative.
CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC PREFERENCE
(Average of most recent nationwide polls)
Republicans: +3.4 (up from +2.8 Friday)
Among voters statewide
- Vance (R) holds edge in Ohio based on three new polls…. In Marist poll: 15% of voters for Republican Gov. Mike DeWine (R) are also voting for Democrat Ryan in the Senate race…. But––here’s the brick wall Ryan (D) is running up against: Biden’s job rating is 39% approve/57% disapprove in Ohio; among independents, Biden is 31% approve/65% disapprove.
- Laxalt (R) ahead in Nevada based on poll for conservative group.
- Georgia race remains tight with Warnock (D) edging Walker (R).
- Fetterman (D) in Pennsylvania and Kelly (D) in Arizona still lead, but margins too close for comfort.
- Murray (D) is winning in Washington, but her average margin is less than awesome.
- J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +1 (46-45) Marist
- J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +3 (49-46) DFP-D
- J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +4 (47-43) Cygnal-R
- Average: R +2.7
- Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez (D): +2 (48-46) InsiderAdvantage
- Average of recent polls: R +1.5
- John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +3 (46-53) Echelon
- Average of recent polls: D +1.8
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (47-45) co-efficient
- Average of recent polls: D +2.3
- Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +1 (48-47) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: D +1
- Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +8 (49-41) SurveyUSA
- Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +3 (48-45) co-efficient
- Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +10 (53-42) PPP-D
- Average: D +7
- Sen. Ron Wyden (D) over Jo Rae Perkins (R): +11 (51-40)
- Average of recent polls: D +15
Among voters statewide
- Florida’s Hispanic voters: A new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida finds that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leads his opponent Charlie Crist (D) among Hispanic voters, 51-44. DeSantis lost Hispanics by 10 points four years ago…. Hispanics rate the governor’s job performance 56% approve/41% disapprove…. Hispanics in Florida also positively rate DeSantis’ handling of the relocation of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, 50% to 43%…. DeSantis wins Cuban American voters 72-22…. DeSantis has spent more on Spanish-language TV ads than Crist has spent on all of his ads combined. DeSantis has run 10 times more ads in Spanish than has Crist…. The big question: Can DeSantis win Miami-Dade? Trump came within 7 points in 2020.
- Republicans lead in Nevada and Oregon, states that now have Democratic governors.
- In Michigan, two GOP-affiliated polls are out––one has the race a tie and the other gives Whitmer (D) a decent lead. This is rapidly becoming a really interesting contest.
- Two Republican incumbents looking solid: Kemp in Georgia and Abbott in Texas.
- Christine Drazan (R) over Tina Kotek (D): +1 (43-42-12) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +3
- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +6 (50-44) Cygnal-R
- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): even (48-48) Trafalgar-R
- Average of recent polls: D +3.3
- Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +6 (49-43)
- Average of recent polls: R +2.3
- Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +10 (53-43) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: R +8
- Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +9 (53-44) Emerson
- Average of recent polls: R +9.3
Among voters nationwide
If you could send one message with your vote this year so the people who win the election know what you mean with your vote, in a SHORT phrase, what would that message be? (Based on coded verbatim)
(All those that scored 2% or more)
- Be More Effective/Productive/Do More: 14%
- Fix the Economy/Reduce the Cost Of Living: 14%
- Protect Women’s Rights: 10%
- More Bipartisanship/Work for The People: 9%
- Save This Country/Turn This Country Around: 8%
- Honesty/Integrity/Trust: 7%
- Focus on the Problems Within United States: 6%
- Listen to Your Constituents: 5%
- Get Rid of Trump: 3%
- Uphold Election Integrity/Voter Rights: 3%
- Border/Immigration Control: 3%
CANDIDATE MORAL FAILURES
Among voters nationwide
- When GOP voters who say they prefer Republicans to control Congress were asked if a GOP candidate they support was revealed to have a moral failure in their business, marriage or personal life, 67% of these voters said they would still vote for the Republican candidate. By contrast, a combined 22% said they’d skip the race, vote for a Democrat or for a third-party candidate.
- When Democratic voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress were asked the same question, 63% said they would still vote for the Democratic candidate, while 26% said they wouldn’t — either by skipping the race, voting for the GOP candidate or voting third party.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CANDIDATE MORAL FAILURES, VOTER MESSAGES: NBC News/Hart/POS, Oct. 14-18
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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