LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Whitmer’s Lead Tightens – DeSantis, Abbott Hold Leads – Biden Edges Trump

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 21, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Down 3 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Looks like yesterday’s bump up for Biden didn’t last. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Monmouth, Emerson) to 45% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (up 1 from yesterday), putting him at 13 points net negative.

CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC PREFERENCE
(Average of most recent nationwide polls)
Republicans: +2.8 (up from 2.0 yesterday)

RON’S COMMENT: One of the polls used for today’s generic average, Emerson, gives the GOP a 5-point advantage. Their pollster notes: “Among those who say they are ‘almost certain’ they will vote this November, congressional Republicans lead by ten percentage points, 51% to 41%. Among those who say they will only ‘probably’ vote, Democrats lead by eleven percentage points, 45% to 34%.” And: “Regionally, congressional Republicans have a 12-point lead in both the Midwest and South. In the West, congressional Democrats have a 10-point lead; however, Democrats lead by just one percentage point in the Northeast.”

PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters nationwide

NATIONAL

• Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +3 (43-40) Emerson
• Average of recent polls: Trump +1

RON’S COMMENT: While this poll shows Biden’s approval rating going down, it also shows him beating Trump.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENT: 

• New poll shows Pennsylvania tied; if accurate, that’s scary news for Democrats. But––this poll shows Oz getting 14% of Black voters, which Democratic operatives say is more than he’ll receive on Election Day. The poll also shows 16% of Blacks are undecided, compared to 4% of Whites. Oz is winning other races, including Asians and Hispanics, by an eye-popping and hard-to-believe 77-17 margin. 
• Rubio (R) in Florida posts a clear lead. His rating is 51% favorable/41% unfavorable. His opponent is 43% favorable/37% unfavorable.

PENNSYLVANIA

• John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R): even (46-46-3) InsiderAdvantage
• Average of recent polls: D +1.3

FLORIDA

• Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +6 (48-42-3) FAU BEPI
• Average of recent polls: R +6

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENTS: 

• Michigan is tightening, not a good sign for Democrats.
• Pennsylvania is tightening, too, but as is the case in the Senate race, this same InsiderAdvantage poll shows Mastriano (R) getting more votes from Blacks, Asians and Hispanics than local operatives believe will happen on Election Day.
• DeSantis (R) in Florida and Abbott (R) in Texas are strengthening…. DeSantis’ rating in Florida is 56% favorable/38% unfavorable. His Democratic opponent is 41% favorable/47% unfavorable.
• New GOP poll in Minnesota shows a tie. If accurate, that’s good for Republicans.
• Maine poll favors Democratic incumbent; no surprise.

MICHIGAN  

• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +2 (49-47) Mitchell
• Average of recent polls: D +3

PENNSYLVANIA

• Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +7 (49-42-3) InsiderAdvantage
• Average of recent polls: R +9

FLORIDA

• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +11 (51-40) FAU BEPI
• Average of recent polls: R +11

TEXAS

• Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +11 (54-43) UT
• Average of recent polls: R +8.7

MINNESOTA

• Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) and Scott Jensen (R): even (46-46) Trafalgar-R
• Average of recent polls: D +2.5 

MAINE

• Gov. Janet Mills (D) over Paul LePage (R): +10 (49-39) Pan Atlantic

​SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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