Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 19, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 39% (Siena, Trafalgar-R) to 46% (CBS, Fox). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as yesterday), putting him at 13 points net negative.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENT:
- The race in Pennsylvania is stuck, with Fetterman (D) posting a small lead. Oz (R)’s personal rating is a net-negative 38% favorable/50% unfavorable, which weighs him down as he tries to overtake Fetterman. But GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio says undecided voters favor a Republican in the generic ballot and are most interested in economic issues. He sees this as a glimmer of hope for Oz.
- This new Georgia poll has the Senate race a tie, even though Warnock (D) maintains a small average lead based on all recent surveys.
- Arizona is getting interesting––to the dismay of Democrats who had hoped to put this one away by now.
PENNSYLVANIA
- John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +2 (48-46) Fabrizio-Anzalone
- Average of recent polls: D +3.3
GEORGIA
- Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): Even (46-46) Landmark
- Average of recent polls: D +2.5
ARIZONA
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (42-40-5) HighGround
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +1 (47-46) Trafalgar-R
- Average of recent polls: D +2.3
NEW YORK
- Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) over Joe Pinion (R): +12 (54-42) Quinnipiac
- Average of recent polls: D +14.7
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENT:
- The New York race, of all places, appears to be tightening. While Hochul (D) holds the lead, her GOP challenger is getting close to striking distance. In today’s poll, Zeldin (R) is beating the incumbent by 20 points among independents, which has raised some eyebrows about the poll’s reliability…. Crime is the most important state issue, beating inflation and protecting democracy. That may explain Zeldin’s improved position.
- Lake (R) maintains a tiny average lead in Arizona based on two new polls, but one has Hobbs (D) ahead by a nose.
- In Georgia, Kemp keeps the advantage. Four years ago at this point, Kemp was leading Abrams by about a point or two. He ended up winning a nail-biter by 1.4 points.
PENNSYLVANIA
- Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +11 (53-42) Fabrizio-Anzalone
- Average of recent polls: D +10
GEORGIA
- Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +6 (51-45) Landmark
- Average of recent polls: R +7.3
NEW YORK
- Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +4 (50-46) Quinnipiac
- Average of recent polls: D +7
ARIZONA
- Katie Hobbs (D) over Kari Lake (R): +1 (46-45) HighGround
- Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +3 (49-46) Trafalgar-R
- Average of recent polls: R +1.7
TOP CAMPAIGN ISSUES AND PARTIES IN CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
Inflation: Who do you trust more to handle [inflation]?
- Republicans in Congress: 46%
- Democrats in Congress: 37%
RON’S COMMENT: Whites prefer Republicans on inflation 52-33, while Blacks prefer Democrats 64-21 and Hispanics prefer Democrats 41-40. Independent women favor Republicans on inflation 32-26 and independent men favor Republicans 51-24…. Keep in mind, 17% don’t say they trust either party in Congress on this issue.
Crime: Who do you trust more to handle [crime]?
- Republicans in Congress: 45%
- Democrats in Congress: 38%
RON’S COMMENT: Whites prefer Republicans on crime 50-33, while Blacks prefer Democrats 68-19 and Hispanics prefer Democrats 42-39. Independent women favor Republicans on crime 33-27 and independent men favor Republicans 47-28…. 17% don’t say they trust either party in Congress on this issue.
Abortion access: Who do you trust more to handle [abortion access]?
- Republicans in Congress: 31%
- Democrats in Congress: 53%
RON’S COMMENT: Whites prefer Democrats on abortion access 50-34, while Blacks prefer Democrats 71-15 and Hispanics prefer Democrats 64-24. Independent women favor Democrats on abortion access 54-14 and independent men favor Democrats 50-26….. 16% don’t say they trust either party in Congress on this issue.
Protecting Medicare and Social Security: Who do you trust more to handle [protecting Medicare and Social Security]?
- Republicans in Congress: 35%
- Democrats in Congress: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: Whites prefer Democrats on Medicare and Social Security 44-40, while Blacks prefer Democrats 73-13 and Hispanics prefer Democrats 53-31. Independent women favor Democrats on Medicare and Social Security 44-19 and independent men favor Democrats 47-30…. 17% don’t say they trust either party in Congress on this issue.
MOST POWERFUL PARTY
Among voters nationwide
Taking into consideration the elected officials at the local, state, and federal levels, do you think the Democratic or Republican Party holds more power in the United States today, or do you think they are equally powerful?
- Democratic Party most powerful: 41%
- Republican Party most powerful: 23%
- They are equally powerful: 23%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CAMPAIGN ISSUES, PARTY POWER: Politico/Morning Consult, Oct. 14-16
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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