LUNCHTIME POLITICS: The Economy, Why Democrats Are Still in Trouble – Fresh State Polls – Tuesday Trivia

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 18, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from Sunday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 39% (Siena, Trafalgar-R) to 46% (Fox News, CBS). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as Sunday), putting him at 13 points net negative.

CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC PREFERENCE
(Average of 5 most recent nationwide polls)
Republicans: +4.2 (up from +3.4 Sunday)

PRESIDENT: 2024 
Among voters nationwide

NATIONAL

• Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +1 (45-44) Siena

RON’S COMMENT: Biden wins voters 18-29 by 12, but loses those 65+ by 3. He wins women by 4, but loses men by 7. Trump wins independents by 5 and Whites by 10; he loses Blacks by 61 and Hispanics by 19.

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Among Republican primary voters nationwide 

• Donald Trump: 49%
• Ron DeSantis: 26%
• Mike Pence: 6%
• Ted Cruz: 4%
• Nikki Haley: 3%
• Mike Pompeo: 2%
• Other: 2%
• Undecided: 8%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump beats the GOP field 49-43…. DeSantis leads Trump 39-30 among Whites with college degrees, and Trump wins Whites without college degrees 56-21. Siena

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENT: 

• Good news for Republicans––Vance (R) maintains small margin in Ohio; Budd (R) posts clear lead in North Carolina.
• Good news for Democrats––Warnock (D) continues to lead in Georgia, although his margin is still narrow.

OHIO

• J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +2 (47-45) Suffolk
• Average of recent polls: R +2.3

GEORGIA

• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +2 (46-44) InsiderAdvantage
• Average of recent polls: D +3

NORTH CAROLINA 

• Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +6 (50-44) ECU
• Average of recent polls: R +2.3

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENTS: 

• Good news for Democrats––Hofmeister (D) edging GOP incumbent in Oklahoma…. Walz (D) has a modest, but clear, lead in Minnesota.
• Good news for Republicans––In Michigan, Whitmer’s (D) lead has narrowed some; she’s now struggling to break 50%…. Among high-interest voters in the Cygnal poll, Whitmer is losing by a point…. Kemp (R) has a clear lead in Georgia.

GEORGIA

• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +7 (50-43) InsiderAdvantage
• Average of recent polls: R +5.5

MICHIGAN  

• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +4 (48-44) Cygnal
• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +5 (49-44) Emerson
• Average of recent polls: D +5.2

MINNESOTA

• Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Scott Jensen (R): +5 (47-42) MinnPost
• Average of recent polls: D +6 

OKLAHOMA

• Joy Hofmeister (D) over Gov. Kevin Stitt (R): +1 (46-45) KOCO
• Average of recent polls: D + .07

NEW YORK 

• Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +11 (52-41) Siena
• Average of recent polls: D +8.3

THE ECONOMY: WHY DEMOCRATS ARE STILL IN TROUBLE
Among voters nationwide

Findings from latest CBS News poll: 

• 29% believe Democratic policies have been helpful to the economy and 48% say they’ve been harmful. 
• 42% believe Republicans policies have been helpful to the economy and 33% say they’ve been harmful. 
• Next year––71% expect the economy to be slowing or in a recession; only 14% expect it to be booming or growing.
• 63% say gas prices have gone up in the last few weeks; only 13% say they’ve gone down.
• Only 32% say the Biden Administration is doing all it can to fight inflation, while 68% say it could be doing more.

TUESDAY TRIVIA

Which one of the following happened in the 2018 midterm elections: 

1. Democrats gained 46 House seats, 3 Senate seats and 4 governorships.
2. Democrats gained 41 House seats and 2 Senate seats; Republicans gained 2 governorships.
3. Democrats gained 41 House seats, Republicans gained 2 Senate seats and Democrats gained 7 governorships.

(See answer below)

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
THE ECONOMY: CBS News, Oct. 12-14

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

TRIVIA ANSWER
C is correct. In 2018, Democrats gained 41 House seats, Republicans gained 2 Senate seats and Democrats gained 7 governorships.

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