LUNCHTIME POLITICS: King Charles, Tom Brady – DeSantis Gets Good Marks for Hurricane–– Biden Leads Trump

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 14, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 2 from Wednesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 48% (YouGov). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Wednesday), putting him at 10 points net negative.

CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC PREFERENCE
(Average of 5 most recent nationwide polls)
Republicans: +0.2

PRESIDENT: 2024 
Among voters nationwide

NATIONAL

• Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4 (48-44) Susquehanna
• Average of recent polls: D +1

RON’S COMMENT: This is Biden’s biggest margin since the WSJ poll in August.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENT:  

• Two Georgia polls have Warnock (D) ahead by differing margins.
• Ohio poll average now even.
• Hassan (D) still holds decent lead in New Hampshire.
• New poll has Johnson (R) clearing 50% in Wisconsin, expanding lead.

ARIZONA

• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +4 (46-42) InsiderAdvantage
• Average of recent polls: D +4.3

OHIO

• J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +1 (46-45) Emerson
• Average of recent polls: Even

GEORGIA

• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +7 (52-45) Quinnipiac
• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +1 (46-45) Trafalgar-R
• Average of recent polls: D +3.3

NEW HAMPSHIRE 

• Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +7 (52-45) Fabrizio-Anzalone
• Average of recent polls: D +5.3

WISCONSIN

• Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): 6+ (52-46)
• Average of recent polls: R +2.3

NEW YORK

• Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) over Joe Pinion (R): +13 (52-39) Marist
• Average of recent polls: D +16

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENTS: 

• Kemp’s (R) lead in Georgia drops to 1 in Quinnipiac poll.
• Lake (R) tops new Arizona poll, but average is even.
• Drazan (R) widens lead in Oregon as independent falls.
• Two Michigan polls show widely different results. Eyebrows raised at InsiderAdvantage numbers.
• Wisconsin remains a nail-biter.

GEORGIA

• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +1 (50-49) Quinnipiac
• Average of recent polls: R +5

OREGON

• Christine Drazan (R) over Tina Kotek (D): +6 (44-38-11) Clout-R
• Average of recent polls: R +3

NEW HAMPSHIRE

• Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Tom Sherman (D): +14 (55-41) Fabrizio-Anzalone
• Average of recent polls: R +14.3 

MICHIGAN  

• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +11 (49-38) EPIC-MRA
• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): Even (44-44) InsiderAdvantage
• Average of recent polls: D +5.3

ARIZONA

• Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +3 (49-46) InsiderAdvantage
• Average of recent polls: Even

WISCONSIN

• Gov. Tony Evers (D) and Tim Michels (R): +1 (47-46) Marquette
• Average of recent polls: D +1

NEW YORK 

• Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +8 (52-44) Marist
• Average of recent polls: D +9

OHIO

• Gov. Mike DeWine (R) over Nan Whaley (D): +22 (57-42) Cygnal
• Gov. Mike DeWine (R) over Nan Whaley (D): +14 (50-36) Emerson
• Average of recent polls: R +19.7

DESANTIS AND THE HURRICANE 
Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of how [Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is] handling the response to Hurricane Ian? 

• Approve: 58%
• Disapprove: 27%

RON’S COMMENT: Among voters nationwide––43% of Democrats, 73% or Republicans and 49% of independents approve of DeSantis’ handling of the hurricane. These are strong numbers…. 74% of voters nationwide also said they approve of President Biden’s meeting with the Florida governor to survey damage.

OF KINGS AND PLAYERS
Among U.S. adults nationwide

% = Favorable/ Unfavorable

• King Charles III: 39%/ 37%
• Tom Brady: 45%/ 34%
• Aaron Judge: 36%/ 10%
• Brett Favre: 35%/ 33%

RON’S COMMENT: Brady does better among Republicans than Democrats (52% vs. 43%)…. King Charles has improved; he’s now net positive among Americans. He does better with men (43%) than women (35%). He does best with seniors (49%). There is no difference on how Democrats and Republicans rate Charles.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DESANTIS AND THE HURRICANE, OF KINGS AND PLAYERS: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 8-11

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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