LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Voter Enthusiasm – Abortion Voting – New Favorability Ratings – Labour Clobbers Tories in Britain

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 12, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 2 from Sunday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 46% (InsiderAdvantage). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (up 1 from Sunday), putting him at 12 points net negative.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENT:  

• Kennedy (R) in Louisiana posts a big lead in the open primary over Mixon (D), one of multiple Democrats challenging the GOP incumbent. Another candidate, Gary Chambers (D), is now third at 8%; he has potential to rise at the end if he pushes up his support among the state’s large Black electorate…. Kennedy needs over 50% to avoid a runoff and this poll shows him getting it…. If Kennedy wins outright, there is talk he could run for governor next year or even president in 2024.
• Warnock (D) holds a slim lead in Georgia. Not sure whether the full impact of recent stories about Walker (R) has registered yet.
• After a series of polls in Nevada showing Laxalt (R) with small leads, here’s a new one showing incumbent Masto (D) with a small lead. 
• Ohio is very close. This poll has Vance (R) slightly ahead, but Ryan (D) led the four previous polls. Biden is a problem for Democrats in this Trump state; his rating in Ohio is 42% approve/57% disapprove.
• Utah remains competitive, with incumbent Lee (R) holding a modest lead over independent McMullin. Among those who will definitely vote, Lee’s lead dwindles to 42-40.
• O’Dea (R) is still behind in Colorado, but he’s slowly moving toward striking distance.
• Thune (R) in South Dakota is running away with it.
• The two Democrats named Horn running for two separate Senate seats in Oklahoma (one is a special election) are not related.

OHIO

• J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan: +2 (46-44) Cygnal-R
• Recent poll average: D +0.5

LOUISIANA

• Sen. John Kennedy (R) over Luke Mixon (D): +37 (53-16-8-6) PPP-D

GEORGIA

• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +3 (46-43) Atlanta J-Const.
• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +1 (46-45-4) Trafalgar-R
• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +2 (48-46-1) Emerson
• Average: D +2

NEVADA

• Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +2 (46-44) Suffolk
• Average of recent polls: R: +.07

COLORADO

• Sen. Michael Bennet (D) over Joe O’Dea (R): +6 (49-43) Marist 
• Average of recent polls: D +7

UTAH

• Sen. Mike Lee (R) over Evan McMullin (I): +5 (42-37-3) Dan Jones
• Average of recent polls: R +4

SOUTH DAKOTA

• Sen. John Thune (R) over Brian Bengs (D): +25 (53-28) SDSU

CALIFORNIA

• Sen. Alex Padilla (D) over Mark Meuser (R): +22 (56-32) Survey USA

OKLAHOMA

• Sen. James Lankford (R) over Madison Horn (D): +12 (52-40) Sooner Poll
• Average of recent polls: R +14.5

OKLAHOMA (SPECIAL ELECTION) 

• Markwayne Mullin (R) over Kendra Horn (D): +9 (51-42) Sooner Poll
• Average of recent polls: R +10.5

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENT: 

• South Dakota’s Noem (R), who has been talked about as a national candidate, is in a closer race than some expected.
• Georgia’s Kemp (R) holds clear leads; his average is up to 8 points.
• Lujan-Grisham (D) in New Mexico has a big lead in one poll and a lesser lead in another.
• Numbers stay close in Nevada.
• The Texas race is remarkably stable. Incumbent Abbott (R) tops 50% and O’Rourke (D) can’t seem to break through.

GEORGIA

• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +10 (51-41) Atlanta J-Const.
• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +9 (53-44) Trafalgar-R
• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +5 (51-46) Emerson
• Average: R +8

NEVADA

• Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +1 (44-43) Suffolk
• Average of recent polls: R +2

TEXAS

• Gov. Greg Abbott over Beto O’Rourke (D): +8 (52-44) Marist 
• Average of recent polls: R +7

SOUTH DAKOTA

• Gov. Kristi Noem (R) over Jamie Smith (D): +4 (45-41) SDSU

NEW MEXICO

• Gov. Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D) over Ronchetti (R): +8 (48-40) PPP-D
• Gov. Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D) over Ronchetti (R): +16 (53-37) SurveyUSA
• Average: D +12

VOTING AND ABORTION
Among voters nationwide

Thinking about the November 2022 midterm elections for US Congress and other offices, is it more important for you to vote for a candidate who…. 

• Agrees with my stance on abortion access, even if they disagree with me on other issues: 40%
• Agrees with my stance on most issues, even if they disagree with my stance on abortion access: 40%

RON’S COMMENT: Abortion is driving Democratic votes more so than Republicans. While 54% of Democrats will vote for candidates who primarily agree with them abortion, 34% of Republicans and 28% of independents say the same.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/ Unfavorable

• Joe Biden: 44%/ 54%
• Donald Trump: 43%/ 54%
• Kamala Harris: 39%/ 54%
• Mike Pence: 37%/ 50%
• Mitch McConnell: 20%/ 58%
• Nancy Pelosi: 31%/ 58%
• Charles Schumer: 27%/ 44%
• Kevin McCarthy: 24%/ 39%
• Republicans in Congress: 38%/ 54%
• Democrats in Congress: 41%/ 52%

RON’S COMMENT: Note the similarity in numbers for Biden and Trump…. Among Republicans: Trump is 84%/15% and Pence is 63%/29%…. Among Democrats, Biden is 84%/14% and Harris is 77%/18%…. Among independent voters, Republicans in Congress are 25%/58% and Democrats in Congress are 25%/59%.

VOTER ENTHUSIASM BY GROUPS
Among voters in Great Britain

Thinking about the November 2022 midterm elections for U.S. Congress, how enthusiastic would you say you are about voting in the midterm elections? 
 
% = Extremely + Very enthusiastic

• Democrats: 59%
• Republicans: 58%
• Independents: 42%
• Democratic men: 66%
• Democratic women: 54%
• Republican men: 64%
• Republican women: 52%
• Whites: 57%
• Hispanics: 47%
• Blacks: 49%

RON’S COMMENT: Note that Democrats and Republicans are about even, but men are more enthused about voting than women and Whites are more enthused than Blacks or Hispanics.

UK PARTY POLITICS
Among voters in Great Britain

Political Party Preference: 
% = Average of last four polls

• Labour: 52%
• Conservative: 24%
• Lib Dems: 10%
• Green: 5%
• SNP: 4%
• Reform: 4%

RON’S COMMENT: Labour is killing the Conservative Party in the four most recent polls. Most observers believe Tory PM Liz Truss has been a disaster so far during her brief tenure––and the polls are showing it. The new YouGov poll has Labour Party leader Keir Starmer beating Truss 43-13 as to which one would be the best PM.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VOTING AND ABORTION, FAVORABILITY RATINGS, VOTER ENTHUSIASM BY GROUPS:
Politico/Morning Consult, Oct. 7-9

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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