Your Daily Polling Update for Sunday, October 9, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from Wednesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 47% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 1 from Wednesday), putting him at 9 points net negative.
CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC PREFERENCE
(Average of 3 most recent nationwide polls)
Republicans: +2
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENT:
- Laxalt (R) maintains a narrow lead over the Democratic incumbent in Nevada. Even though his lead is small, it’s still good news for Republicans that they have a good chance to knock off a Democratic incumbent.
- Incumbent Johnson (R) holds a slim lead in Wisconsin. Moreover––Johnson’s voters are more enthusiastic than Barnes’ (D) voters (59% vs. 49%), which could give him a turnout advantage…. Barnes wins the Social Security issue, while Johnson wins the crime issue.
- Incumbent Kelly (D) remains on top in Arizona with an average poll margin of 4.8…. In the 2020 election, the final poll average gave Kelly a 5.2-point lead and on Election Day he received a 2.4 point margin in actual votes.
- Grassley (R), 89, posts solid leads in Iowa. He was first elected in 1980.
- Bennet’s (D) re-election in Colorado was a possible sleeper for a GOP pick-up, but this new Democratic poll puts him ahead by 9 points. State politicos blame O’Dea’s campaign for not getting off the ground.
WISCONSIN
- Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +1 (50-49) CBS
- Average of recent polls: R +2
NEVADA
- Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez (D): +2 (48-46) CNN
- Average of recent polls: R +2.8
ARIZONA
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +6 (51-45) CNN
- Average of recent polls: D +4.8
COLORADO
- Sen. Michael Bennet (D) over Joe O’Dea (R): +9 (40-41) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: D +8.3
IOWA
- Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) over Michael Franken (D): +11 (49-38) Emerson
- Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) over Michael Franken (D): +14 (54-40) Cygnal
- Average of recent polls: R +12.5
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
RON’S COMMENTS:
- Challenger Lombardo (R) leads the last three polls in Nevada.
- Arizona’s gubernatorial race continues to be tight, with Hobbs (D) edging Lake (R).
- Wisconsin is as tight as they come, even.
- Incumbent Reynolds (R) had a tough battle four years ago in Iowa, but she’s now sailing.
- The Democrat is leading in red Oklahoma. Not a misprint. The latest Sooner Poll has D challenger Hofmeister overtaking the GOP incumbent. Stitt’s rating is 45% favorable/54% unfavorable. Hofmeister’s rating is 51% favorable/43% unfavorable. Stitt’s campaign blamed the media for producing poll results that would encourage more ad spending––and said that Stitt really has “landslide” support.
OKLAHOMA
- Joy Hofmeister (D) over Gov. Kevin Stitt (R): +4 (47-43-2-1) Sooner Poll
- Average of recent polls: Even
NEVADA
- Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +2 (48-46) CNN
- Average of recent polls: R +2.7
ARIZONA
- Katie Hobbs (D) over Kari Lake (R): +3 (49-46) CNN
- Average of recent polls: D +0.7
MINNESOTA
- Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Scott Jensen (R): +10 (50-40) SurveyUSA
- Average of recent polls: D +6.7
MICHIGAN
- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +6 (53-47) CBS
- Average of recent polls: D +10
WISCONSIN
- Gov. Tony Evers (D) and Tim Michels (R): even (50-50) CBS
- Average of recent polls: Even
COLORADO
- Gov. Jared Polis (D) over Heidi Ganahl (R): +17 (56-39) DFP-D
- Average of recent polls: D +14
IOWA
- Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) over Deidre DeJear (D): +17 (53-36) Emerson
- Average of recent polls: R +14
VOTING METHODS, ACCURATE COUNTS
Among voters nationwide
This November, do you think you will vote:
%= Democrats/ Republicans
- In person on Election Day: 39%/ 62%
- At an early voting location: 18%/ 20%
- By mail or absentee: 42%/ 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Far fewer Democrats will be at the polls on Election Day, but far more will vote by mail or absentee. Apparently, Trump has convinced Republicans that mail-in ballots may not be counted properly.
How confident are you that your state or local government will run a fair and accurate election this November?
%= Democrats/ Republicans
- Very confident/confident of fair and accurate count: 92%/ 69%
- Not very confident/ not confident at all: 8%/ 31%
RON’S COMMENT: Almost all Democrats (92%) expect the vote count to be accurate, but nearly a third of Republicans (31%) don’t. Will that discourage Republican voter turnout? Or will it just discourage mail-in voting by Republicans?
PICKLEBALL, ANYONE?
Among U.S. adults nationwide
Have you ever played pickleball?
- Yes: 10%
- No: 84%
- Not sure: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: 10% of U.S. adults say they’ve played pickleball…. More Americans 18-29 (20%) say they’ve played the game than any other age cohorts…. More Americans with incomes over $100k a year (16%) say they’ve played pickleball than any other income group…. Should be noted that 37% of Americans say they’ve heard about the game.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VOTING METHODS, ACCURATE COUNTS: NPR/Marist, Sept. 27-29
PICKLEBALL, ANYONE? The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 1-4
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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