LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Indiana Surprise? – GOP Leads Generic Preference – Biden Edges Trump in North Carolina

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Same as Monday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Trafalgar-R) to 46% (Newsnation, Insider Advantage). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from Monday), putting him at 11 points net negative…. Monmouth poll results on Biden’s issue approval….

  • Inflation: 30% approve/66% disapprove
  • Crime: 31% approve/61% disapprove
  • Transportation and infrastructure: 43% approve/49% disapprove
  • Pandemic: 50% approve/47% disapprove
  • Immigration: 31% approve/63% disapprove
  • Abortion: 31% approve/59% disapprove
  • Student loan debt: 41% approve/54% disapprove

(Average of 5 most recent nationwide polls)
Republicans: +1.8

Among voters statewide


  • Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (45-43) SurveyUSA


  • Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +9 (50-41) Emerson


  • Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +10 (49-39) Emerson

RON’S COMMENT: In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by 1.3 points; Biden won Oregon by 16 points and Washington by 19 points.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide


  • One big surprise today––a new poll shows the Indiana Senate race is very close. Handicappers have expected this to be an easy Republican win, but these numbers show GOP incumbent Young only 2 points ahead. If this poll is accurate, could this be a sleeper
  • In Pennsylvania, look at this: Fetterman’s rating is 45% favorable/44% unfavorable and Oz is 34% favorable/51% unfavorable. But Biden’s job rating in this critical state is 40% approve/53% disapprove…. Beware of bad punditry: It has become conventional wisdom among cable news pundits that Fetterman’s polling is in precipitous decline––which isn’t true. Polls conducted during the first half of September had Fetterman up by an average of 4 points. Polls taken during the last half of September show Fetterman up by 4.3 points. 
  • Four polls show Hassan’s lead is in the single digits in New Hampshire.That’s not quite the blowout that pundits were predicting a week or two ago.
  • North Carolina continues to be tight. Budd leads 51-33 among Whites. Beasley leads 76-11 among Blacks and 40-35 among independents. Budd is 43% favorable/39% unfavorable and Beasley is 41% favorable/40% unfavorable…. Is Trump hurting Budd? This poll finds that 43% of voters are less inclined to vote for Budd because of Trump’s endorsement, while 30% are more likely to vote for him; independents are 49-14 less inclined. This is a state that Trump narrowly carried twice.
  • Despite a close gubernatorial contest in Oregon, Wyden maintains a strong lead in the Senate race.
  • In Nevada, Laxalt averages a 2.8-point lead based on the most recent four polls. In the last newsletter, we incorrectly reported this race to be in Arizona instead of Nevada. 


  • Sen. Todd Young (R) over Tom McDermott (D): +2 (39-37-6) Indy Politics/ARW Strategies


  • John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +6 (46-40) USA Today
  • Average of recent polls: Fetterman +4


  • Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +6 (47-41) Mason-Dixon
  • Average of recent polls: Rubio +5.7


  • Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +3 (48-45) Trafalgar-R
  • Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +6 (49-43) St. Anselm
  • Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +7 (50-43) DFP-D
  • Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +9 (50-43) Suffolk
  • Average: Hassan +6.3


  • Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +1 (43-42-2) SurveyUSA
  • Average of recent polls: Budd +1.3


  • Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +9 (51-42) Emerson
  • Average of recent polls: Murray +10.5


  • Sen. Ron Wyden (D) over Jo Rae Perkins (R): +19 (51-32) Emerson

Among voters statewide


  • DeSantis increases lead in Florida inpoll finished right before Hurricane Ian made landfall in the state.
  • Another poll showing Republican leading for governor of blue Oregon, albeit by a small margin. An independent (who is a former Democrat) is drawing 19%.
  • More evidence of a Whitmer walk in Michigan. 
  • Sununu solid in New Hampshire.
  • New York’s Hochul has a single digit lead in a new GOP poll; another poll has her with a much wider margin.
  • The incumbent is safe in California; he can now print his “Newsom for President” bumper stickers.


  • Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +11 (52-41) Mason-Dixon
  • Average of recent polls: R +9.5 


  • Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +11 (48-37) USA Today
  • Average of recent polls: D +11.8


  • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +18 (50-32) Detroit News 
  • Average: D +13.3


  • Christine Drazan (R) over Tina Kotek (D): +2 (36-34-19) Emerson
  • Average of recent polls: R +2.3


  • Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Tom Sherman (D): +13 (52-39) DFP-D
  • Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Tom Sherman (D): +16 (50-34) St. Anselm
  • Average of recent polls: R +15.3


  • Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +6 (51-45) McLaughlin-R
  • Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +17 (54-37) Siena
  • Average of recent polls: D +12


  • Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) over Brian Dahle (R): +21 (53-32) Berkeley IGS
  • Average of recent polls: D +24

Among voters nationwide

Which is more important to you in deciding who to support for Congress this year – concerns about fundamental rights and the democratic process OR concerns about the economy and cost of living?

  • Concerns about the economy and cost of living: 54%
  • Concerns about fundamental rights and the democratic process: 38%
  • Both equally (volunteered): 7%

RON’S COMMENT: These numbers are good for Republicans.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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