LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump, Biden in Pennsylvania, Missouri – Will Oregon go GOP? – Can Fetterman Hold On? – North Carolina in Play

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 3, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Trafalgar-R) to 47% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 1 from Thursday), putting him at 10 points net negative.  

  • Biden on foreign policy: 43% approve/51% disapprove. Economist

PRESIDENT: 2024 
Among voters statewide

PENNSYLVANIA

  • Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +1 (46-45-6) Emerson

MISSOURI

  • Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +14 (51-37) Emerson

RON’S COMMENT: In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 points. In 2016, Trump won it by seven-tenths of a point…. In 2020, Trump won Missouri by 15 points.   

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENT: 

  • Democrat Kelly still leads in Arizona, but his margin has tightened a bit. This poll shows Kelly’s supporters are more enthusiastic and that a sizable segment of voters are concerned that Republican Masters’ views are too extreme.
  • Though Fetterman’s lead in Pennsylvania is narrowing, he still holds on. Women break for him by 7 and Oz wins men by 6. But: Since August, the share of voters who say Fettterman’s stroke makes them less likely to vote for him increased from 14% to 19%. Also, the share of voters who say Oz’s New Jersey residence makes them less likely to vote for him went down from 51% to 39%.
  • Rubio posts a clear lead in Florida.
  • Good news for Democats––North Carolina’s seat is now held by a Republican, and this poll shows the open race is a tie.
  • Good news for Republicans––In Arizona, Laxalt edges Masto in two polls…. Republican Johnson, who leads three new Wisconsin polls, seems to be strengthening, or more precisely, his opponent seems to be weakening. In August, 30% said Democrat Barnes’ views were too extreme, now it’s 44%. Also, only 50% of Barnes’ supporters are enthuisiastic, compared to 68% for Johnson.

PENNSYLVANIA

  • John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +2 (45-43-5) Emerson
  • John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +3 (45-42) F&M
  • John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +4 (48-44) Fox News 
  • Average: Fetterman +3

NORTH CAROLINA

  • Cheri Beasley (D) and Ted Budd (R): even (44-44) Cygnal-R

ARIZONA

  • Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +6 (46-40) Fox News

WISCONSIN

  • Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +4 (48-44) Fox News
  • Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +5 (51-46) Fabrizio/Anzalone
  • Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +2 (50-48) DFP-D
  • Average: Johnson +3.7

NEVADA

  • Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +2 (45-43) OHPI

FLORIDA

  • Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +7 (48-41) Siena

MISSOURI

  • Eric Schmitt (R) over Trudy Busch Valentine (D): +11 (49-38) Emerson

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENT: 

  • The Florida poll shows DeSantis with a clear lead––but note, it was taken before Hurricane Ian hit the state.
  • Arizona remains very tight. This poll has Republican Lake ahead by 1 among “certain” voters and Democrat Hobbs ahead by 1 among registered voters.
  • Good news for Republicans––Could blue Oregon elect a Republican governor? Two polls put the Republican candidate ahead in a three-way race (centrist Betsy Johnson, a former Democrat, is running as an independent)…. Challenger Michels posts slim leads in two new polls in Wisconsin…. Republican Lombardo is edging Sisolak in Nevada in what has been a tight contest.
  • Good news for Democrats––Pennsylvania seems solid…. Whitmer continues to lead in Michigan, even in this GOP poll.

OREGON

  • Christine Drazan (R) over Tina Kotek (D): +4 (39-35-16) Clout-R
  • Christine Drazan (R) over Tina Kotek (D): +1 (32-31-18) DHM
  • Average: Drazan +2.5

PENNSYLVANIA

  • Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +10 (51-41) Emerson

FLORIDA

  • Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +8 (49-41) Siena

ARIZONA

  • Katie Hobbs (D) over Kari Lake (R): +1 (44-43) Fox News

MICHIGAN

  • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +6 (51-45) Trafalgar-R

WISCONSIN

  • Tim Michels (R) over Gov. Tony Evers (D): +2 (49-47) Fox News
  • Tim Michels (R) over Gov. Tony Evers (D): +1 (48-47) DFP-D
  • Average: Michels +1.5

NEVADA

  • Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +3 (45-42) OHPI

MARYLAND

  • Wes Moore (D): over Dan Cox (R): +32 (60-28) Wash. Post

MAYOR OF LOS ANGELES 
Among voters citywide

Karen Bass (D) over Rick Caruso (D): +3 (34-31) 

RON’S COMMENT: The 3-point gap in this poll is down from 12 points in August, which is good news for Caruso. But, voter turnout is a big unknown. The poll also finds that Bass ups her margin to 15 points (46-31) among likely voters. That’s a big and somewhat puzzling difference. Caruso, a former Republican, has spent over $62 million so far. Berkeley IGS

RECESSION? 
Among voters nationwide

Do you believe the United States is currently in an economic recession?

Yes: 59%
No: 24%
Not sure: 17%

RON’S COMMENT: The economy continues to be a millstone around the collective neck of Democrats…. 41% of Democrats, 58% of independents and 75% of Republicans say the U.S. is in a recession.

TRUMP AND JAN. 6 
Among voters nationwide

Do you think Donald Trump should be charged with any crime in connection with the events of January 6, 2021?

Yes: 46%
No: 43%
Not sure: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: 74% of Democrats, 41% of independents and 12% of Republicans say Trump should be charged.

SUPREME COURT 
Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court of the United States is handling its job?

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 44%
Not sure: 10%

RON’S COMMENT: 30% of Democrats, 33% of independents and 63% of Republicans approve of the Court.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
SUPREME COURT, TRUMP AND JAN. 6, RECESSION: Emerson/YouGov, Sept. 24-27

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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