LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump Edges Biden – Tuesday Trivia – More State Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Down 2 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Wash. Post/ABC, Reuters) to 45% (CBS, Emerson). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (up 1 from Friday), putting him at 12 points net negative.

Among voters nationwide/statewide

Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +2 (48-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump beats Biden by 2 among registered voters. Among all adults, Biden wins by 2. (Washington Post)
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +11 (51-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden won Maine by 9 points in 2020. (Emerson)

Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +9 (49-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Texas by nearly 7 points in 2020. (Emerson)

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide


  • (Marist) John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +7 (51-44)
  • (Insider Advantage) John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +3 (45-42)

RON’S COMMENT:  Fetterman maintains a lead.Today’s average is 5 points. (Seat now R; )

  • Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +2 (49-47)

RON’S COMMENT: Tiny leads are bouncing back and forth. This GOP poll has Johnson with a small edge. (Seat now R; Trafalgar-R)

  • (Suffolk) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +7 (49-42)
  • (OH Predictive) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +12 (47-35)
  • (Trafalgar-R) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +8 (50-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Kelly’s average lead is 9 points today. (Seat now D)
Tim Ryan (D) over J.D. Vance (R): +3 (46-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Ryan slightly overtakes Vance in this poll. Based on the last three polls, Vance has a tiny lead of 0.7%. (Seat now R; Siena)


  • Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +2 (49-47)

RON’S COMMENT: Political operatives are having a hard time believing this GOP poll, showing Republican challenger Smiley breathing down incumbent Murray’s neck. A previous Elway poll had Murray up by 12. (Seat now D; Trafalgar-R)

Among voters statewide


  • Janet Mills (D) over Paul LePage (R): +12 (53-41)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Mills has a sizable lead over former Gov. LePage…. Mills wins women by 20 and LePage wins men by 2…. Mills is 58% favorable/41% unfavorable…. LePage is 45% favorable/53% unfavorable…. It would be a major upset if Mills loses. (Seat now D; Emerson)

  • (Insider Advantage) Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +15 (52-37)
  • (Marist) Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +12 (54-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Mastriano’s campaign is in disarray. (Seat now D)

  • (Fabrizio/Anzalone) Katie Hobbs (D) over Kari Lake (R): +1 (49-48)
  • (Suffolk) Katie Hobbs (D) over Kari Lake (R): +1 (46-45)

RON’S COMMENT: This may be tight as a tick right down to the wire. (Seat now R)

  • (Emerson) Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +8 (50-42)
  • (Texas HPF) Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +7 (51-44)

RON’S COMMENT: In the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation pollAbbott leads by 7 among likely voters, but his lead rises to 10 among the most likely voters. Abbott wins Whites 63-33, but O’Rourke leads Blacks by 79-16 and Hispanics by 53-39. (Seat now R)

  • Tim Michels (R) over Gov. Tony Evers (D): +1 (48-47)

RON’S COMMENT: Here’s a GOP poll showing Michels with a tiny lead. (Seat now D; Trafalgar-R)

  • Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) over Joy Hofmeister (D): +3 (47-44-1)

RON’S COMMENT: This poll finds a rather tight race in an otherwise very red state. Republican Stitt is seeking a second term and Hofmeister is State Superintendent of Public Instruction. Democrat Hofmeister, who is polling 19% of Republicans, is leading Stitt in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa areas. Stitt easily wins the rest of the state. Former GOP state Sen. Ervin Yen is running as an independent. (Seat now R; Amber Integrated-R)

Among voters nationwide

Would you rather see the next Congress controlled by the Democrats, to act as a check on Biden, or controlled by Republicans, to support Biden’s agenda?

  • Controlled by Republicans: 49%
  • Controlled by Democrats: 45%

RON’S COMMENT: Most voters say they want Republicans to control Congress as a check on Biden, but the GOP percentage is down since February by 3 points. (Washington Post, ABC)

Among voters nationwide

ASKED AMONG DEMOCRATS ONLY: Would you like the Democratic Party to nominate Biden to run for a second term as president in 2024, or would you like the Democratic Party to nominate someone other than Biden as its candidate for president: 

  • Nominate Biden: 35%
  • Nominate someone else: 56%

ASKED AMONG REPUBLICANS ONLY: Would you like the Republican Party to nominate Trump to run for another term as president in 2024, or would you like the Republican Party to nominate someone other than Trump as its candidate for president: 

  • Nominate Trump: 47%
  • Nominate someone else: 46%

RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of Democrats (56%) would like to see Democrats nominate someone other than Biden in 2024, while Republicans are split nearly down the middle on nominating Trump again (47-46). (Washington Post, ABC)

Among voters nationwide

During his time in office, would you say Biden has accomplished a great deal, a good amount, not very much or little or nothing?
A great deal: 16%
A good amount: 25%
Not very much: 23%
Little or nothing: 34%
RON’S COMMENT: A clear majority (57%) believe Biden has not accomplished much. (Washington Post)


Alexander Graham Bell tried unsuccessfully to help save the life of which dying president?

(See answer below)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
STATE RACES: After each comment, the party that now controls the seat and the name of the pollster who did the poll is indicated. (Seat now D or R; Pollster’s Name)

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron


James Garfield. Alexander Graham Bell tried to locate the bullet after President Garfield was shot using a primitive metal detector, but was unsuccessful. The invention had been tested and proved effective with others.

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