LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Should Biden, Trump Run Again? – More State Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 23, 2022

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 46% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), putting him at 9 points net negative.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide


  • (Insider Advantage) Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez (D): +3 (46-43) 
  • (Trafalgar-R) Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +4 (47-43)
  • (Data for Progress-D) Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +1 (47-46)
  • (Big Data Poll) Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +2 (46-44)

RON’S COMMENT: These new polls are not good news for Democrats, they all show the GOP challenger running first with an average lead of 2.5 points. (Seat now D)   Masto, Laxalt ads

  • Sen. Mike Lee (R) over Even McMullin (I): +2 (36-34-13)

RON’S COMMENT:McMullin is running as an independent in this conservative Republican state. This poll shows he’s making it a race. But: Among likely voters, incumbent Lee leads 37-34 and among the most likely voters, it’s 40-35. (Seat now R; Dan Jones) 


  • Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +8 (49-41)

RON’S COMMENT: While her lead is a bit smaller in this poll than in the previous one we reported (+8 vs. +11), incumbent Hassan maintains a clear advantage (Seat now D; UNH)

  • This poll also shows Pappas (D) leading Leavitt (R) by 8 points in House District 1 and Kuster beating Burns by 3 points in House District 2.


  • John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +5 (49-44)

RON’S COMMENT:  Despite a lot of rough campaigning back and forth, Fetterman maintains a lead. (Seat now R; Muhlenberg)   Fetterman crime ad  Oz phony ad

  • (Data for Progress-D) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +1 (48-47)
  • (Trafalgar-R) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (47-45)

RON’S COMMENT: Both sides can use these polls to spur fundraising. (Seat now D)


  • Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R): even (46-46)

RON’S COMMENT: Tight as can be. (Seat now D; Data for Progress-D)

Among voters statewide


  • Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +3 (48-45)

RON’S COMMENT: This Republican poll has Lombardo moving ahead of incumbent Sisolak. A recent Emerson poll had the race a tie. (Seat now D; Trafalgar-R)

  • Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +11 (53-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Shapiro holds a solid lead, running above 50%. (Seat now D; Muhlenberg)

  • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +16 (55-39)

RON’S COMMENT: Whitmer runs well ahead of Dixon, easily topping 50% (Seat now D; EPIC-MRA)

  • Gov. Jared Polis (D) over Heidi Ganahl (R): +17 (53-36)

RON’S COMMENT: Polis does much better in this poll that he did last month in a Trafalgar-R poll that had his lead at a modest 5 points. Polis won four years ago by 8 points. (Seat now D; Emerson)

  • This poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 10 points in Colorado.


  • Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +7 (51-44)

RON’S COMMENT: Kemp posts a clear lead, breaking 50%. (Seat now R; Data for Progress-D)

Among voters nationwide

Do you want President Biden to run for president again in 2024? 
Yes: 24%
No: 56%
Not sure: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: While 24% of all voters want Biden to run, 38% of Democrats want the president to run again––which is amazingly low for an incumbent among voters of his own party. (The Economist/YouGov)
Do you want Donald Trump to run for president again in 2024? 
Yes: 30%
No: 58%
Not sure: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: While 30% of all voters want Trump to run again, 58% of Republicans and 28% of independents want him to run. This low percentage of independents who want Trump to run speaks poorly of his ability to win a general election. (The Economist/YouGov)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
STATE RACES: After each comment, the party that now controls the seat is indicated. The name of the pollster who conducted this poll is also indicated (Seat now D or R; Pollster’s name)

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. As we get closer to the elections, publication will increase. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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