LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Should Biden, Trump Run Again? – More State Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 23, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 46% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), putting him at 9 points net negative.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

NEVADA

• (Insider Advantage) Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez (D): +3 (46-43) 
• (Trafalgar-R) Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +4 (47-43)
• (Data for Progress-D) Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +1 (47-46)
• (Big Data Poll) Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +2 (46-44)

RON’S COMMENT: These new polls are not good news for Democrats, they all show the GOP challenger running first with an average lead of 2.5 points. (Seat now D)   Masto, Laxalt ads
 
UTAH

• Sen. Mike Lee (R) over Even McMullin (I): +2 (36-34-13)

RON’S COMMENT:McMullin is running as an independent in this conservative Republican state. This poll shows he’s making it a race. But: Among likely voters, incumbent Lee leads 37-34 and among the most likely voters, it’s 40-35. (Seat now R; Dan Jones) 

NEW HAMPSHIRE 

• Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +8 (49-41)

RON’S COMMENT: While her lead is a bit smaller in this poll than in the previous one we reported (+8 vs. +11), incumbent Hassan maintains a clear advantage (Seat now D; UNH)

• This poll also shows Pappas (D) leading Leavitt (R) by 8 points in House District 1 and Kuster beating Burns by 3 points in House District 2.

PENNSYLVANIA

• John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +5 (49-44)

RON’S COMMENT:  Despite a lot of rough campaigning back and forth, Fetterman maintains a lead. (Seat now R; Muhlenberg)   Fetterman crime ad  Oz phony ad
 
ARIZONA

• (Data for Progress-D) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +1 (48-47)
• (Trafalgar-R) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (47-45)

RON’S COMMENT: Both sides can use these polls to spur fundraising. (Seat now D)

GEORGIA

• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R): even (46-46)

RON’S COMMENT: Tight as can be. (Seat now D; Data for Progress-D)

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

NEVADA

• Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +3 (48-45)

RON’S COMMENT: This Republican poll has Lombardo moving ahead of incumbent Sisolak. A recent Emerson poll had the race a tie. (Seat now D; Trafalgar-R)
 
PENNSYLVANIA

• Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +11 (53-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Shapiro holds a solid lead, running above 50%. (Seat now D; Muhlenberg)
 
MICHIGAN  

• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +16 (55-39)

RON’S COMMENT: Whitmer runs well ahead of Dixon, easily topping 50% (Seat now D; EPIC-MRA)
 
COLORADO

• Gov. Jared Polis (D) over Heidi Ganahl (R): +17 (53-36)

RON’S COMMENT: Polis does much better in this poll that he did last month in a Trafalgar-R poll that had his lead at a modest 5 points. Polis won four years ago by 8 points. (Seat now D; Emerson)

• This poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 10 points in Colorado.

GEORGIA

• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +7 (51-44)

RON’S COMMENT: Kemp posts a clear lead, breaking 50%. (Seat now R; Data for Progress-D)

SHOULD BIDEN, TRUMP RUN IN 2024?
Among voters nationwide

Do you want President Biden to run for president again in 2024? 
 
Yes: 24%
No: 56%
Not sure: 19%
 
RON’S COMMENT: While 24% of all voters want Biden to run, 38% of Democrats want the president to run again––which is amazingly low for an incumbent among voters of his own party. (The Economist/YouGov)
 
Do you want Donald Trump to run for president again in 2024? 
 
Yes: 30%
No: 58%
Not sure: 13%
 
RON’S COMMENT: While 30% of all voters want Trump to run again, 58% of Republicans and 28% of independents want him to run. This low percentage of independents who want Trump to run speaks poorly of his ability to win a general election. (The Economist/YouGov)

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
STATE RACES: After each comment, the party that now controls the seat is indicated. The name of the pollster who conducted this poll is also indicated (Seat now D or R; Pollster’s name)

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. As we get closer to the elections, publication will increase. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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