LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Republican Governors, Migrants – Party Ratings – New Presidential, State Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 22, 2022

Up 2 from Sunday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 46% (Rasmussen, Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 1 from Sunday), putting him at 9 points net negative.

Among voters nationwide/statewide

NATIONAL––Republican nomination 

  • Donald Trump: 52%
  • Ron DeSantis: 19%
  • Mike Pence: 8%
  • Mitt Romney: 3%
  • Liz Cheney: 3%
  • Others: 10%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump gets 52% of Republicans nationwide––but that’s down from the 57% he had in the mid-August poll from the same outfit. (Politico/Morning Consult)

  • DeSantis national rating: DeSantis has a rating of 43% favorable/38% unfavorable among all voters nationwide. Among Republicans, he’s 68% favorable/11% unfavorable and among conservatives he’s 73% favorable/9% unfavorable. (Economist/YouGov)

FLORIDA––General election

  • Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +3 (47-44)
  • Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +2 (46-44)
  • Ron DeSantis (R) over Joe Biden (D): +8 (52-44)
  • Ron DeSantis (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +12 (52-40)

RON’S COMMENT: Trump beats the two Democrats in Florida by small margins, while DeSantis wins by much bigger leads. (USA Today)
FLORIDA––Democratic primary 

  • Joe Biden (D) over Gavin Newsom (D): +17 (50-33)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden wins the Florida Democratic primary, but California Gov. Newsom, who has presidential ambitions, holds him to 50%. (USA Today)
FLORIDA––Republican primary 

  • Ron DeSantis (R) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (48-40)

RON’S COMMENT: Both Trump and DeSantis reside in Florida, but DeSantis wins a GOP primary showdown in the state by a clear margin. (USA Today)

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide


  • J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +1 (48-47)

RON’S COMMENT: Vance’s average lead based on the last three polls is a slight 1.3 points. (Seat now R; Marist)

  • (USA Today) Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +4  (45-41)
  • (Civiqs) Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +2 (49-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Rubio’s average lead based on these two polls is 3 points. (Seat now R)

  • (CBS) Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +2 (51-49)
  • (Monmouth) Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +4 (45-41)
  • (Atlanta Jour. Const.) Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +2 (46-44)

RON’S COMMENT: Average of today’s polls: Democrat Warnock +1.3 points…. Important note: The Monmouth poll did not ask a conventional trial heat question. Instead, they asked two separate questions as to whether voters were likely to vote for Walker and whether voters were likely vote for Warnock…. Monmouth also finds that Trump has a higher favorable rating in Georgia (45%) than Biden (41%)…. In the CBS poll: 

  • 58% of voters say they “like” Warnock, while 42% “like” Walker; 56% say Warnock has strong moral character, while 43% say so about Walker…. Warnock’s job rating is 54% approve/46% disapprove, which is much better than Biden’s in the state, at 43% approve/57% disapprove. …The CBS poll also finds that 82% believe Warnock’s policies will help Black people, while only 13% say the same about Walker’s policies…. Walker does best among voters who say the economy is a very important issue; he gets 56% to Warnock’s 44%. 


  • (Emerson) Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +4 (48-44)
  • (Spectrum) Mandela Barnes (D) over Sen. Ron Johnson (R): +1 (48-47)

RON’S COMMENT: This is one of the top three or four toughest Senate fights in the country. (Seat now R)


  • Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +13 (53-40)

RON’S COMMENT:  Republicans may have thrown away this opportunity when they nominated Bolduc. (Seat now D; ARG)

  • (Civiqs) Cheri Beasley (D) over Ted Budd (R): +1 (49-48)
  • (Emerson) Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +3 (46-43)

RON’S COMMENT: Continues too be a tight race. (Seat now R)


  • SenMichael Bennet (D) over Joe O’Dea (R): +10 (46-36)

RON’S COMMENT: Bennet holds a clear lead. But the pollster notes: “Among Colorado’s high share of Independent voters, 47% plan to vote for Bennet for US Senate and 32% for O’Dea. However, a plurality (39%) of Independent voters either have no opinion or have not heard of O’Dea, leaving room for Republican growth with this cohort.” (Seat now D; Emerson)

Among voters statewide


  • (CBS) Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +6 (52-46) 
  • (Atlanta Jour. Const.) Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +8 (50-42) 

RON’S COMMENT: Kemp’s lead averages 8.3 from the last three polls (Seat now R)

  • Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +7 (48-41)

RON’S COMMENT: DeSantis’ average lead, based on the last three polls, is 5.3 points (Seat now R; USA Today)

  • Ned Lamont (D) over Bob Stefanowski (R): +17 (57-40)

RON’S COMMENT: Republicans keep fielding strong candidates for governor in this blue state, but they keep falling short. Democrat Lamont, who beat Stefanowski last time by only 3 points, has a solid lead in this poll. (Seat now D; Quinnipiac)

  • Gov. Laura Kelly (D) over Derek Schmidt (R): +2 (45-43)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Kelly won by a 5-point margin last time against the controversial Kris Kobach; local operatives believe that almost any other Republican would have beaten Kelly in 2018. (Seat now D; Emerson)

  • Wes Moore (D) over Dan Cox (R): +22 (53-31)

RON’S COMMENT: Blowout. We’ll let you know if anything changes. (Seat now R; Goucher)

  • (Dallas Morning News) Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +11 (50-39)
  • (Spectrum/Siena) Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +7 (50-43)

RON’S COMMENT:  The Morning News poll gives Abbott his biggest lead since April. The Spectrum poll shows a clear, but smaller, lead. Both have Abbott at 50%. (Seat now R)

  • (Emerson) Gov. Tony Evers (D) over Tim Michels (R): +2 (45-43)
  • (Spectrum/Siena) Gov. Tony Evers (D) over Tim Michels (R): +5 (49-44)

RON’S COMMENT: This continues to be a tight race; the incumbent has an average lead of 3.5 points based on these two polls. (Seat now D)

Among voters nationwide

As you may know, some Republican governors from states along the U.S.-Mexico border have been sending thousands of migrants to liberal states and cities in the U.S. Would you consider Republican governors sending migrants to liberal U.S. states and cities to be? 

  • Appropriate: 42%
  • Inappropriate: 41%

RON’S COMMENT: 66% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats, 33% of independents, 46% of Whites, 41% of Hispanics and 31% of Blacks say it’s appropriate for Republican governors from states along the U.S.-Mexico border to send migrants to liberal states and cities. (Politico/Morning Consult)

Among voters nationwide

Democratic Party
Favorable: 47%
Unfavorable: 49%
Republican Party
Favorable: 43%
Unfavorable: 52%
Democrats in Congress 
Favorable: 44%
Unfavorable: 50%
Republicans in Congress 
Favorable: 36% 
Unfavorable: 56%
RON’S COMMENT: The parties do worse in Congress than they do in general…. Although both lean negative, Democrats do better than Republicans…. Democratic net-negative ratings range from -2 to -6 and Republican net-negative ratings range from -11 to -20…. 30% of Trump voters are unfavorable toward Republicans in Congress and 18% of Biden voters are unfavorable toward Democrats in Congress. (The Economist/YouGov)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
STATE RACES: After each comment, the party that now controls the seat and the name of the pollster who did the poll is indicated. (Seat now D or R; Pollster’s Name)

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next election, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.