Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 13, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 from Saturday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters, Trafalgar-R) to 46% (IBD/TIPP). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 1 from Saturday), putting him at 11 points net negative.
- The new Harvard-Harris poll shows Biden’s issue approval to be: the economy 37%, stimulating jobs 44%, immigration 37%, foreign affairs 40% and administering government 41%.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters nationwide and statewide
NATIONWIDE
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +3 (45-42)
- Donald Trump over Kamala Harris: +7 (47-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Despite all of his legal troubles, Trump leads Biden and Harris in this poll. But keep in mind, Trump’s vote in this poll (45%, 47%) is at or less than the vote he received in the 2020 election (46.9%). Of course, Biden’s vote is 9 points below his 2020 popular vote (51.3%)…. Trump’s lead over Harris should send shivers down Democratic spines.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION (among Democratic primary voters nationwide)
- Joe Biden: 37%
- Kamala Harris: 13%
- Bernie Sanders: 8%
- Hillary Clinton: 7%
- Pete Buttigieg: 6%
- Stacey Abrams: 4%
- Amy Klobuchar: 3%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 3%
- Michael Bloomberg: 3%
- Joe Manchin: 2%
- Elizabeth Warren: 2%
- Someone else: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads, but his support level among Democrats is well below 50%. For an incumbent among his own party’s voters, that’s an unimpressive showing…. Without Biden in the race, Harris leads with 26%, then Clinton 14%, Sanders 10% and Buttigieg 9%.
ARIZONA
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +3 (44-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Not good for Biden. Arizona is a critical swing state that he won in 2020 by a tiny margin.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
OHIO (seat now R)
- Tim Ryan (D) over J.D. Vance (R): +1 (47-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Republicans may have a tougher battle than they once thought to hold this seat. Three previous polls had Vance ahead by small margins. A ton of campaign money will be poured into Ohio over the next seven weeks, which is nothing new for residents of this state.
GREAT BRITAIN: HOW THEY RATE THEIR ROYAL FAMILY
Among adults in the U.K.
% = Like / Dislike
- Queen Elizabeth: 75%/8%
- Kate Middleton: 68%/12%
- Prince William: 66%/13%
- Princess Anne: 53%/12%
- King Charles III: 42%/24%
- Camilla, Queen Consort: 40%/27%
- Prince Edward: 35%/19%
- Prince Harry: 34%/41%
- Meghan Markle: 25%/47%
- Prince Andrew: 11%/75%
RON’S COMMENT: This polling, which probes Britons on their feelings toward the royal family, was completed before the Queen’s passing. Will be interesting to see how these numbers shift in the days ahead.
General findings:
- The Queen scored the highest on “like” and the lowest on “dislike.”
- Prince Andrew rated most poorly with 11% “like” and 75% “dislike.”
- Kate and William rated much higher than anyone except the Queen.
- Meghan and Harry rated net-negative, with higher “dislike” ratings than “like” ratings; clearly, their attempt to separate themselves from the royal family has rubbed Brits the wrong way. Note that Meghan takes a bigger hit than does Harry (-22 vs. -7).
King Charles profile:
- Charles and his wife, Camilla, rated net-positive (+18, +13), but their “like” ratings fell below 50%. That may soon change.
- The new King did better among fellow Baby Boomers (54% “like”) than among Gen Xers (40% “like”) or Millennials (34% “like”).
- The new King did much better among Conservatives (59% “like”) than Labour Party supporters (38% “like”).
- The new King scored slightly better among women (44% “like”) than men (41% “like”).
GREAT BRITAIN: PARTY POLITICS
Among voters in the U.K.
Political Party Preference:
% = Average of last three polls
- Labour: 41%
- Conservative: 31%
- Lib Dems: 11%
- Green: 5%
- SNP: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: Liz Truss, current PM and leader of the Conservative Party, took office Sept. 5––right before the Queen’s passing (Sept. 8). The three polls used for this average were taken Sept. 7-11. Worth noting: While the two polls conducted Sept. 7 had a 12-point gap in favor of Labour, the most recent poll, conducted Sept. 11, shows a narrowed Labour lead of 7 points.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT NATIONWIDE: Harvard-Harris, Sept. 7-8
OHIO: Suffolk/Enquirer, Sept. 5-7
ARIZONA: Emerson, Sept. 6-7
ROYAL FAMILY: YouGov
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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