LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump Charges – DeSantis’ Lead Narrows – Warnock Drops, Kemp Holds Up – Arizona Tight – Gorbachev

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, September 10, 2022

Up 1 from Sept. 2

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five six, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 45% (Rasmussen. Insider Advantage). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Sept. 2), making him 11 points net negative.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

FLORIDA (seat now R)

  • (Fox 35) Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +2 (46-44)
  • (Susquehanna) Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +3 (47-44)
  • (Fabrizio/Anzalone) Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +2 (49-47)

RON’S COMMENT: Rubio has his hands full. While he still leads, Demings is well within striking distance in all three polls. Rubio’s average lead today is only 2.3 points…. Independents matter: The Susquehanna poll report says Demings has narrowed the gap largely based on a shift among independents, a critical group she now wins by 9 points. In 2016, Rubio won independents by 10 points.
GEORGIA (seat now D)

  • Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +3 (47-44-4)

RON’S COMMENT: Despite controversies surrounding his statements and personal life, Walker now edges Warnock, who is being forced to defend his progressivism. Since July, Warnock lost 4 points and Walker picked up 2 points…. “Warnock is winning among younger voters and seniors but trails badly among those 40-64. Men support Walker at 60%, while women support Warnock at 55%. Walker is receiving 12% support from African American respondents,” says the pollster. “With only 4% undecided, this race could very well be headed to a General Election runoff given the fact that there seems to be few points among the various demographics up for grabs.”

  • Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +3 (47-44-4)

RON’S COMMENT: This GOP poll has Budd with a small lead. A previous poll, from a Democratic outfit, had Beasley ahead by 1.

ARIZONA (seat now D)

  • (Fox 10) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +6 (45-39)
  • (Emerson) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (47-45)

RON’S COMMENT: Kelly’s average lead from these two polls is a modest 4 points. A number of local pols say they think the Fox 10 margin is closer to reality. We’ll see.

Among voters statewide

FLORIDA (seat now R)

  • (Fabrizio Anzalone) Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +3 (50-47)
  • (Susquehanna) Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +4 (47-43)
  • (Fox 35) Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +5 (50-45)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent DeSantis leads Crist, but by fairly modest margins…. Are independents an insurance policy for DeSantis? “Among Independents who have committed to a candidate, Crist leads 36:31, but nearly 1 in 3 (or 32%) are undecided,” says the Susquehanna poll report. “These undecided Independents could break for DeSantis because 45% of Independents view DeSantis favorably, while they view Crist more unfavorably [than favorably] by a 39:32 margin.”

ARIZONA (seat now R)

  • (Fox 10) Katie Hobbs (D) over Kari Lake (R): +1 (44-43-3)
  • (Emerson) Katie Hobbs (D) and Kari Lake (R): even (46-46) 

RON’S COMMENT: This is a barn-burner.
MICHIGAN (seat now D)                                                                  

  • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor (R): +13 (48-35)

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Whitmer well ahead of her Republican opponent in what has become a vital swing state. Still worth watching, Michigan races tend to shift around in the last four to six weeks.
GEORGIA (seat now R)

  • Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): + (50-42-1) 

RON’S COMMENT: Challenger Abrams is struggling to get into contention…. “Kemp leads in every age group in the survey. He receives right at 10% of African American support and a rather astounding 68% of white voters surveyed. Abrams has an impressive 54% of female voters while Kemp receives 63% from men,” explains the pollster, Matt Lowery. “Kemp has support from 50% of independents. With two months to go, Kemp would seem poised to potentially escape Georgia’s General Election runoff requirement.”
TEXAS (seat now R)

  • Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +7 (49-42-2)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Abbott holds a lead. But note: Among the most likely “almost certain” voters, Abbott leads O’Rourke by 12, 53-41…. Says the poll report: Older Texans belonging to the Silent Generation/Baby Boomer cohort and to Generation X favor Abbott over O’Rourke by margins of 28 points and 11 points, respectively. O’Rourke is the candidate of choice among Millennials and Generation Z by margins of 21 points and 23 points. 

NEW YORK (seat now D)   

  • Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +15 (50-35)

RON’S COMMENT: While incumbent Hochul has her share of weaknesses, she continues to post solid leads in trial heats.

MASSACHUSETTS (seat now D)     

  • Maura Healey (D) over Geoff Diehl (R): +18 (52-34-3) 

RON’S COMMENT: Massachusetts is a very blue state, but it has had a popular moderate Republican governor, Charlie Baker, for the last eight years. Baker is not seeking re-election. Republican Diehl is seen as being too pro-Trump and too far right to win this race.

Among voters nationwide

Do you think former President Trump should face any criminal charges for how he handled classified documents after leaving office? 

  • Yes, should face criminal charges: 47%
  • No: 39%
  • Not sure: 14%

RON’S COMMENT: 77% of Democrats, 11% of Republicans and 39% of independents say Trump should face criminal charges for how he handled classified documents after leaving office. 

  • This poll also asked voters whether Trump should run for president in 2024––only 30% say he should run and 58% say he should not run…. Interestingly, 25% of Republicans say he should not run and another 16% say they’re not sure for a total of 41% of Republicans who have doubts about him running again.

Among U.S. voters nationwide

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of [Mikhail Gorbachev]?

  • Favorable: 47%
  • Unfavorable: 26%
  • Don’t know: 30% 

RON’S COMMENT: 52% of Democrats, 41% of Republicans and 37% of independents have favorable feelings toward the former Soviet leader. Also: 50% of 18-29-year-olds don’t know enough about him to provide a rating.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ARIZONA: Emerson, Sept., 6-7; Fox 10/Insider Advantage, Sept. 6-7
NEW YORK: The Hill/Emerson, Sept. 4-6
GEORGIA: Fox 5/Insider Advantage, Sept. 6-7
FLORIDA: Fox 35/ Insider Advantage, Sept. 6-7; Susquehanna, Aug. 29-Sept. 4; Fabrizio (R)/Anzalone (D), Aug. 24-31
MASSACHUSETTS: Emerson College, Sept. 7-8
TEXAS: Univ. of Houston, Aug. 11-29
MICHIGAN: Detroit News, Aug. 29-Sept. 1
GORBACHEV, TRUMP DOCUMENTS: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 3-6

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.