The Republicans have been enjoying advantages in the Senate races over the past few months. That has come to an end.
Democrats have had new life breathed into their campaigns. According to analysis, neither party has a significant edge over the other one. There are only two months to go until the midterm elections, making the race a tight one.
There have been a number of factors that contributed to the resurgence in the Democrats’ elections. But the declining national headwinds facing the party are most responsible. Democratic voters are energized after the Supreme Court’s abortion decision, and Donald Trump’s constant presence in the spotlight is driving Democratic anger.
There have also been massive roles played by weaker Republican opponents in some states.
In Arizona for example, Republican nominee Blake Masters’ struggles since winning the primary last month have moved the state from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic” — a reflection of Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly’s growing lead over Masters.
The shift in Arizona means there are now four “toss-up” Senate races coming in November. Two are currently controlled by each party.
If neither party wins one of the races where the opposition has an advantage now, Republicans would need to win three of the four “Toss Up” races to wrest control of the majority.
There are four main elements that have brought the Senate closer to a coin flip for who will control it. First of all, there is an improving political environment for democrats.
Abortion rights have become a massive pivot point as well. The biggest speed bump in Republicans’ march to the Senate majority has been the Supreme Court’s decision reversing nearly 50 years of federal abortion rights.
Republicans’ candidate struggles are the third reason.
And lastly, it is that the Democrats have slightly expanded the map. The GOP’s tension over its candidates is only half the story. Democrats are also opening new lanes in their fight to retain the majority, largely because their candidates have so much money.
A sea change that puts both blue-state seats in play would offer Republicans a wider path to the majority — but also would likely mean they’ve pulled ahead in states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. That hasn’t happened yet.
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