LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Student Loans – Abortion Voting – Biden, Trump Personality Contest – Better Party Next Door – Arizona

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 45% (Rasmussen, CBS). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 1 from yesterday), putting him at 10 points net negative.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide 

Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +4 (48-44-4)
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic incumbent Kelly leads this poll, taken by Republican firm Trafalgar, by a modest margin. A Fox News poll two weeks ago had Kelly ahead by 8.

Among voters statewide

Kari Lake (R) over Katie Dobbs (D): +1 (47-46-3)
RON’S COMMENT: This promises to be a fight to the finish. A Fox News poll two weeks ago had Dobbs ahead by 3.

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the Biden Administration canceling some student loan debt for certain borrowers?

Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 46%

RON’S COMMENT: 88% of Democrats, 21% of Republicans, 52% of independents favor Biden’s student loan proposal.

Among voters nationwide

Regardless of how you feel about his policies, do you …. ?

Like how Joe Biden handles himself personally: 51%
Dislike how Joe Biden handles himself personally: 49%

Like how Donald Trump handles himself personally: 37%
Dislike how Donald Trump handles himself personally: 63%

COMMENT: Though Biden’s job approval rating is in the low to mid-40s (45% in this CBS poll), 51% of voters personally like him. More voters like him than Trump. 

  • If these two eventually oppose one another in 2024, is it possible that Biden’s likability edge over Trump would save him? Still way too far away to answer. Keep in mind: Biden received 51% of the vote in 2020, which means those same voters now say they like him. Not such a big deal when you think about it, but good for Biden given the torrent of bad poll numbers he’s suffered over the past eight to ten months. Trump, on the other hand, has shown an ability to get votes from people who don’t particularly like him, and that’s largely because he’s a protest vehicle; many Trump voters “love him for the enemies he makes” (the media, woke progressives, deep state operatives, the political establishment, Hollywood liberals, academic experts).

Among voters nationwide

Court decision: As you may know, the U.S. Supreme Court has ended the constitutional right to abortion by overturning Roe v. Wade. Do you approve or disapprove of the Court overturning Roe v. Wade?

  • Approve of overturning Roe v. Wade: 47%
  • Disapprove of overturning Roe v. Wade: 53%

RON’S COMMENT: 24% of Democrats, 79% of Republicans and 37% of independents approve of the Court’s action overturning Roe.

Impact on voting: Have the events surrounding the overturning of Roe v Wade impacted the way you think about your vote choice in the 2022 midterms, or not? 

  • Yes: 42%
  • No: 58%

RON’S COMMENT: 63% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans and 41% of independents say the Court’s action overturning Roe will impact their vote this November. 

[ASKED OF THE 42% WHO SAY ABORTION RULING WILL IMPACT THEIR VOTE) Will your vote for Congress this year be…

  • In support of abortion rights: 41%
  • To oppose abortion rights: 16%
  • Not about abortion: 43%

RON’S COMMENT: This is good news for Democrats––it provides evidence that abortion is now more of a voting issue for those who favor abortion rights than for those who oppose abortion.

Among voters nationwide

Should or shouldn’t investigate: Do you think the Department of Justice should be investigating whether or not Donald Trump may have had classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, or should they leave the matter alone?

  • Should be investigating: 57%
  • Should leave matter alone: 43%

RON’S COMMENT: This is not good for Trump, a clear majority thinks the DOJ should investigate.

Motivation for the search: Do you think of the FBI search of Donald Trump’s property at Mar-a-Lago as a…?

  • Search for classified documents: 63%
  • Proper part of an ongoing investigation: 58%
  • Attempt to protect national security: 54%
  • Political attempt to damage Donald Trump: 53%
  • Governmental overreach or abuse of power: 51%

RON’S COMMENT: Note that 58% of voters view the search as a “proper part of an ongoing investigation” and 54% view it as an “attempt to protect national security” at the same time 53% see it as a “political attempt to damage Trump” and 51% see it as a “governmental overreach or abuse of power.” Shows that there are a lot of cross-pressured voters. Also:

  • 87% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans see the search as a proper part of an ongoing investigation.
  • 24% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans see the search as governmental overreach or abuse of power.

Impact on vote: Have the events involving Donald Trump in recent weeks impacted the way you think about your vote choice in the 2022 midterms, or not?

  • Yes: 34%
  • No: 66%

RON’S COMMENT: About two-thirds of the electorate say the Trump investigation won’t impact their vote choices in this November’s elections. Of the 34% who say it will, it’s close to a wash in this poll: 47% say it will push them to voting for Republicans and 44% say it will push them to voting for Democrats and another 8% want to wait and see. 

Among voters nationwide

Would you ever consider …. 

  • Among likely Democrat voters: Voting for a Republican congressional candidate this year: 11% Yes
  • Among likely Republican voters: Voting for a Democratic congressional candidate this year: 10% Yes

COMMENT: While only a small portion of partisans are open to crossing over to the other party this November, that 10-11% could be decisive in close races. Worth noting: 17% of moderate Democrats and 20% of moderate Republicans say they would consider voting for a candidate from the other party.

  • Among all likely voters, 20% would consider skipping this November’s elections and not voting; that includes 19% of Democrats, 22% of independents and 18% of Republicans.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ARIZONA: Trafalgar (R): Aug. 24-27

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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