Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, August 18, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 38% (Reuters) to 44% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (down 1 from yesterday), putting him at 13 points net negative.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide
OHIO
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +14 (53-39)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is especially bad news for Biden. Trump beat Biden in the 2020 election by an 8-point margin in Ohio, now Trump is leading Biden in the state by a widened 14 points…. Excerpts from the poll report:
- “A plurality of Ohio voters (39%) say the recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes them more likely to support Donald Trump for president in 2024, while 35% say it makes them less likely to support Trump; 27% say it makes no difference.”
- “A majority of rural voters [in Ohio], 55%, say they are more likely to support the former president following the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. Suburban voters are more split, 38% say it makes them less likely to support Trump and 35% say it makes them more likely to vote for the former president in two years.”
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
OHIO
J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +3 (45-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Vance edges Ryan in this important open Senate race. The seat is now held by a retiring Republican. Among “very motivated” voters, Vance’s lead slips to 45-44.
WISCONSIN
Mandela Barnes (D) over Sen. Ron Johnson (R): +7 (51-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Not good news for GOP incumbent Johnson. Barnes wins Democrats 95-4 and independents 52-38. Johnson wins Republicans 92-7…. Among voters who say they are “certain to vote,” Barnes wins 52-45.
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
OHIO
Gov. Mike DeWine (R) over Nan Whaley (D): +16 (49-33)
RON’S COMMENT: Though the incumbent doesn’t hit 50%, he has a wide lead over his Democratic challenger.
WISCONSIN
Gov. Tony Evers (D) over Tom Michels (R): +2 (45-43-7)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is too close for comfort for Democrats…. The independent candidate draws 7%.
TRUMP INVESTIGATIONS
Among voters nationwide
MAR-A-LAGO SEARCH: The FBI executed a court-ordered search warrant of former President Trump’s private home in relation to the Justice Department’s investigation into whether Trump violated the Presidential Records Act. Do you approve or disapprove of the search?
- Approve: 56%
- Disapprove: 38%
- Not sure: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: 86% of Democrats, 21% of Republicans and 47% of independents approve of the search. It should be noted that 61% of Republicans “strongly disapprove” of the search plus another 11% “somewhat disapprove.”
MOTIVATION FOR SEARCH: Do you think the FBI executing a search warrant of former President Trump’s private home is a serious attempt to find out what really happened or politically motivated?
- A serious attempt to find out what really happened: 40%
- Politically motivated: 40%
- Equally motivated by both of these: 14%
- Not sure: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: 13% of Democrats, 70% of Republicans and 35% of independents say the search was politically motivated.
NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS: If in the documents that former President Trump took with him to his private residence, there are documents related to nuclear weapons, would you approve or disapprove of his actions?
- Approve: 24%
- Disapprove: 58%
- Not sure: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: 74% of Democrats, 37% of Republicans and 53% of independents say they would disapprove of his actions.
TAKING THE 5th: In a deposition scheduled last week, former President Trump invoked his Fifth Amendment rights and declined to answer questions from the New York attorney general about the Trump Organization’s business practices. Do you approve or disapprove of former President Trump refusing to answer questions?
- Approve of Trump taking the 5th: 44%
- Disapprove of Trump taking the 5th: 44%
- Not sure: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: 69% of Democrats, 13% of Republicans and 39% of independents say they disapprove of Trump taking the 5th.
RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
- Liz Cheney: 38%/41%
- Christopher Wray: 25%/25%
- Merrick Garland: 31%/29%
RON’S COMMENT: 60% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans and 25% of independents have favorable views of U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney…. 40% of Democrats, 15% of Republicans and 14% of independents have favorable views of FBI Dir. Christopher Wray…. 55% of Democrats, 13% of Republicans and 20% of independents have favorable views of Attorney General Merrick Garland.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
OHIO: Emerson College, Aug. 15-16
WISCONSIN: Marquette Law School, Aug. 10-15
RATINGS:The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 13-16
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. As we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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