LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Latest in Texas, Florida, New Hampshire

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Same as Sunday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 43% (Rasmussen). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (up 1 from Sunday), putting him at 14 points net negative. 

Among voters statewide

Donald Trump over Joe Biden (+5): 45-40
RON’S COMMENT: It should be recalled that in the 2020 election, Trump beat Biden in Texas by a similar margin, 5.6 points.

FLORIDA Republican Primary
Ron DeSantis over Donald Trump: +2 (47-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Both DeSantis and Trump reside in Florida and this poll shows DeSantis edging Trump among Republican primary voters in their home state. DeSantis wins Republican men by 7 and Republicans with college degrees by 8.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

Val Demings (D) over Sen. Marco Rubio (R): +4 (48-44)
RON’S COMMENT: There is both surprise and skepticism with these Univ. of N. Florida poll results showing Demings leading Rubio. Incumbent Rubio wins Republicans 89-4, men 48-45, Whites 52-41 and Hispanics 48-42. Demings wins Democrats 94-3, women 50-40 and Blacks 83-2…. If the poll is right, it’s a big problem for Republicans…. Things that make you go Hmmmm: How can Rubio be winning Whites by 11 and Hispanics by 6 in this poll and still be losing overall? Demings wins Blacks overwhelmingly, but that constituency makes up only 6.4% of the poll’s sample. Whites comprise 80% of this sample and Hispanics 10%. 
NEW HAMPSHIRE Republican primary
Don Bolduc: 32%
Chuck Morse: 16%
Others: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: Bolduc leads the GOP Senate primary which will determine who challenges Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in November…. In the New Hampshire Senate general election

  • Hassan’s job rating among all voters is upside down, at 44% approve/51% disapprove. 
  • Hassan’s re-elect among all voters should concern Democrats: Only 39% say she deserves re-election and 53% want to give somebody new a chance. But the big question is whether Bolduc is the right “somebody new” to take advantage of Hassan’s weaknesses.
  • Interesting note from the pollster on abortion issue: “58% of pro-choice voters report being more motivated to vote in the wake of the Dobbs decision, while it makes no difference to 69% of pro-life voters.”  

Among voters statewide

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +7 (46-39-6)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll finds that Abbott’s job rating is leaning slightly negative, 47% approve/49% disapprove…. O’Rourke’s rating is even: 43% favorable/43% unfavorable, which is an improvement for him…. Abbott beats O’Rourke among Republicans 85-8 and Whites 57-30. O’Rourke wins Democrats 81-12, independents 34-31, Blacks 66-21 and Latinos 45-38.
FLORIDA general election
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Nikki Fried (D): +7 (50-43)
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +8 (50-42)
RON’S COMMENT: In this Univ. of N. Florida poll, DeSantis leads both Crist and Fried, the two Democrats battling it out in the Aug. 23 primary…. In February, the same poll showed DeSantis ahead by over 20 points.
FLORIDA Democratic Primary
(St. Pete Polls) Charlie Crist over Nikki Fried: +32 (56-24)
(Univ. of N. Florida) Nikki Fried over Charlie Crist: +4 (47-43)
RON’S COMMENT: We have a polling crack-up here. The survey from St. Pete Polls (conducted Aug. 2-3) shows Crist leading Fried by a gigantic 32-point margin, but the Univ. of N. Florida (conducted Aug. 8-12) has Fried ahead by 4 points. The St. Pete poll has a bigger sample (1,361 LV), but the Univ. of N. Florida’s smaller sample is still big enough for a statewide primary (529 LV). The other difference, as you’ve noticed, is the interviewing dates. The Univ. of N. Florida’s poll was conducted about a week or so more recently, without any overlap…. The Univ. of N. Florida pollster speculates that Fried’s surge may be a reaction to the abortion issue heating up, energizing Democratic women, which favors Fried…. Primary night this coming Tuesday will tell the story on whether Fried has overtaken Crist or whether Crist remains the clear favorite for the nomination.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TEXAS: Dallas Morning News, Aug. 1-7
NEW HAMPSHIRE: St. Anselm, Aug. 9-11
FLORIDA: Univ. of N. Florida, Aug. 8-12; St. Pete Polls, Aug. 2-3

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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