Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, July 22, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 37%
Down 1 from Saturday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 33% (Quinnnipiac) to 40% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 58% today (up 2 from Saturday), putting him at 21 points net negative.
- The Economist poll shows Biden’s job rating for handling the Russia-Ukraine situation is 39% approve/53% disapprove. The poll also shows that only 31% of voters are confident in Biden’s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, and 54% are uneasy about it. Interestingly, 20% of Democrats are uneasy.
- Biden’s issue approval ratings in the Quinnipiac poll: the economy (28% approve/66% disapprove), the pandemic(50% approve/43% disapprove), foreign policy (36% approve/55% disapprove), gun violence (32% approve/61% disapprove)
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among primary voters
Republican nomination (nationwide)
Donald Trump: 53%
Ron DeSantis: 23%
Mike Pence: 7%
Others: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: This nationwide poll of Republican primary voters shows Trump first, DeSantis second and Pence third, similar to most other polls.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
IOWA
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) over Michael Franken (D): +8 (47-39-7)
RON’S COMMENT: The 88-year-old Republican incumbent leads by a clear margin, but fails to hit 50%. Grassley has not polled below 50% in any public poll since 1980 when he defeated Democratic incumbent John Culver…. Grassley’s job rating is lackluster statewide, 46% approve/44% disapprove…. Democrat Franken is a retired U.S. Navy admiral…. Franken wins women by 6, voters who live in cities by 4, voters who live in suburbs by 2 and those with college degrees by 1.
UTAH
Sen. Mike Lee (R) over Evan McMullin (I): +5 (41-36-14)
RON’S COMMENT: GOP incumbent Lee has a modest only a lead over McMullin, the independent who enjoys Democratic support. How the 14% now voting for others breaks on election day could be key…. If Republicans lose this Utah seat, it will be a major setback, perhaps a fatal one, to their winning control of the Senate.
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
MICHIGAN Republican primary
Tudor Dixon: 28%
Kevin Rinke: 20%
Ryan Kelley: 15%
Ralph Rebandt: 11%
Garrett Soldando: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: Dixon has moved up 13 points since June, Kelley is up 2, Rinke is up 5, Soldano is up 2 and Rebandt is up 8. The Aug. 2 GOP primary winner takes on Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D).
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
- Joe Biden: 35% favorable, 58% unfavorable
- Donald Trump: 37% favorable, 55% unfavorable
- Kamala Harris: 26% favorable, 50% unfavorable
- Ron DeSantis: 31% favorable, 32% unfavorable
RON’S COMMENT: Everybody is net negative, although DeSantis comes close to breaking even. In this Quinnipiac poll, Trump’s favorability is 2 points higher than Biden’s. Harris does the worst with only 26% favorable.
PARTIES IN CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
Job ratings on parties in Congress
Republicans: 23% approve/68% disapprove
Democrats: 30% approve/63% disapprove
RON’S COMMENT: Both parties in Congress have high negatives, but Republicans are worse off than Democrats––despite Biden’s low job ratings and talk about a red wave.
VOTING
Among voters nationwide
Proof of citizenship: Do you think people should or should not be required to show proof of citizenship in order to vote in elections?
- Should be required to show proof of U.S. citizenship to vote: 66%
- Should not be required to show proof of U.S. citizenship to vote: 24%
- Not sure: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: 48% of Democrats, 62% of independents and 88% of Republicans think people should be required to show proof of citizenship to vote.
Vote by mail: Do you believe voting by mail increases or decreases the chance of voter fraud, or do you think it doesn’t make a difference?
- Increase chance of voter fraud: 48%
- Decrease chance of voter fraud: 11%
- Not make any difference: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters believe voting by mail increases the chance of voter fraud. While only 20% of Democrats say that, 46% of independents and 79% of Republicans say so.
JAN. 6 HEARINGS
Among adults nationwide
From the Quinnipiac poll report:
- More than half of Americans (55 percent) think it is very important for Congress to hold hearings so that the public can learn what led to the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, an increase from Quinnipiac University’s June 22, 2022 poll when it was 49 percent.
- Nearly half of Americans (48 percent) think former President Donald Trump committed a crime with his efforts to change the results of the 2020 presidential election, while 44 percent think he did not. This compares to Quinnipiac University’s June 22, 2022 poll when 46 percent thought he committed a crime and 47 percent thought he did not.
- Nearly 4 in 10 Americans (37 percent) say the January 6 hearings made them think that former President Trump had a bigger role in the storming of the U.S. Capitol than they previously thought, while 9 percent say the hearings made them think he had a smaller role than they previously thought, and 46 percent say the hearings have not impacted their thinking on Trump’s role in the storming of the U.S. Capitol.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT: Politico/Morning Consult, July 15-17
MICHIGAN: MIRS/Mitchell, July 17-18
IOWA: Des Moines Register, July 10-13
UTAH: Deseret News/Dan Jones, July 13-18
JAN. 6 HEARINGS: Quinnipiac, July 18-20
VOTING, PARTIES IN CONGRESS: The Economist/YouGov, July 16-19
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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