LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Biden Re-Nomination – Gun Law – NATO, Ukraine – New Hampshire, Arizona, Michigan – Tuesday Trivia

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Down 3 from June 23

RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s rating is sinking. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 33% (NYT/Siena) to 40% (IBD/TIPP)––it’s the lowest average job rating for him we’ve ever reported. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 57% today (same as June 23), putting him at 20 points net negative.  

  • The NYT/Siena poll finds Biden’s approval rating is 30% among Whites, 32% among Hispanics and 62% among Blacks.

Among voters nationwide

Trial Heat (among all voters)

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (44-41-4)
RON’S COMMENT: Despite Biden’s worsening job ratings, he still maintains a lead over Trump in this NYT/Siena poll. Results like these are causing some pro-Trump Republicans to think twice about nominating their man a third time; that’s why they’re looking at Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and, most recently, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, as possibilities for the 2024 nomination.
Democratic Nomination (among Democratic primary voters nationwide)
Do you think the Democratic Party should re-nominate Joe Biden as the party’s candidate for President in 2024, or do you think the party should nominate a different candidate for President in 2024? 
Favor nominating Biden in 2024: 26%
Favor nominating a different person: 64%
RON’S COMMENT: I wouldn’t want to be the White House staffer who had to bring these results into the Oval Office…. The top reasons Democratic primary voters give for opposing Biden’s re-nomination are age (33%) and job performance (32%)…. In this NYT/Siena poll: 

  • Less than a majority (43%) of Black Democratic primary voters want to re-nominate Biden, while 47% want someone else.
  • Only 5% of 18-29-year-old Democratic primary voters want to re-nominate Biden, while a thumping 94% want to nominate someone else. That’s not a misprint.
  • Only 22% of WomenDemocratic primary voters want to re-nominate Biden, while 67% want to nominate someone else. 

Republican Nomination (among Republican primary voters nationwide) 

  • Donald Trump: 49%
  • Ron DeSantis: 25%
  • Ted Cruz: 7%
  • Mike Pence: 6%
  • Nikki Haley: 6%
  • Mike Pompeo: 2%
  • Someone else: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads the field 49-47 with the rest undecided. While Trump leads DeSantis 57-24 among Whites without college degrees, the two candidates are tied among Whites with college degrees, 29-29…. DeSantisdoes best with Republican primary voters 30-44 years old (39%). Pence does best with Republican primary voters 65+ (10%) and those with graduate degrees (23%).

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Don Bolduc (R): +9 (49-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Hassan holds a lead over challenger Bolduc, a former Army Special Forces brigadier general. 
ARIZONA Republican primary
Blake Masters: 25%
Jim Lamon: 18%
Mark Brnovich: 14%
Others: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Since April, Masters (Thiel Foundation president) has climbed 16 points, while Lamon (a wealthy businessman) went up 2 points and Brnovich (the state AG) went down 10 points. Lamon beats Masters among moderates, while Masters leads conservatives and Trump loyalists…. The winner takes on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in November, who is seen as potentially vulnerable. 

Among voters statewide

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +6 (45-39)

RON’S COMMENT: While handicappers rate this race likely or solid Republican, and most state observers expect Abbott to be re-elected, this poll shows this race could still be competitive.

MICHIGAN Republican primary
Tudor Dixon: 26%
Ryan Kelley: 15%
Kevin Rinke: 13%
Garret Soldano: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: Dixon has taken the lead with the rest of the field struggling for second place. The winner takes on Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in November. The GOP primary is Aug. 2…. Dixon is a conservative media pundit. Says pollster Steve Mitchell, “While her opponents have stayed in almost the same position as they were two and a half weeks ago, Dixon has taken off.” Dixon has support from the DeVos family, Right-to-Life PAC of Michigan, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce and former Gov. John Engler. She’s seen as a tough opponent for Whitmer.

Among adults nationwide

Approval of new law: As you may know, Congress passed a bill that Joe Biden signed into law to address gun violence that will expand background checks for gun purchases and put new limits on gun ownership for people convicted of domestic abuse. It will also increase funding for mental health programs, school security, and state “red flag laws” to remove guns from people who may be dangerous….. All in all, do you approve or disapprove of this new gun law?

Approve of new gun law: 64%
Disapprove of new gun law: 21%

RON’S COMMENT:  A solid majority of Americans approve of the new gun law; 80% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans approve of the new law…. While only 7% say the new law will do “a lot” to reduce gun violence, an additional 42% say it will do “a little.” 36% say it won’t do anything to reduce gun violence. 

More gun restrictions: After this new gun law, would you like to see Congress pass another round of legislation to address gun violence?

Yes: 63%
No: 35%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll question shows that the new gun law has not fully sated the public appetite for more gun restrictions. That appetite is much higher among Democrats (89%) than Republicans (32%), however.

Among voters nationwide

Rating: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable view of NATO? 

Favorable: 57%
Unfavorable: 23%
Don’t know: 19%

RON’S COMMENT: 77% of Biden voters are favorable toward NATO, compared to 43% of Trump voters. 

Support for expanded NATO membership: Do you think it would be a good idea or a bad idea to support allowing ____ to join NATO?

% = Good Idea/ Bad Idea
Ukraine: 53%/ 17%
Sweden and Finland: 66%/ 8%

RON’S COMMENT: Majorities support membership for both Ukraine and, separately, Sweden and Finland, with a bigger majority supporting the latter…. Later in the survey, it was explained that the U.S. is “obligated to come to the defense of any NATO member that has been attacked”––and 70% said the U.S. should maintain this commitment to NATO, 13% said the U.S. shouldn’t maintain the commitment and 17% were not sure.

Among voters nationwide

WinningIn the war between Russia and Ukraine, who do you think is currently winning?
Russia: 27%
Ukraine: 16%
Neither: 40%
Not sure: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: 20% of Biden voters think Russia is winning and 32% of Trump voters say so. 20% of Biden voters think Ukraine is winning and 12% of Trump voters say so.


Four of the last 10 governors of Michigan have been Republicans and six have been Democrats. Who was the last Democrat to win six two-year terms as governor?
(See answer below)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT: NYT/Siena, July 5-7
NEW HAMPSHIREChange (D)/America’s Future Majority Fund, June 24-27 
MICHIGAN: MIRS/Mitchell, July 7-8
ARIZONA: OH Predictive, June 30-July 2 
TEXAS: UT/Texas Tribune, June 16-24
GUN LAW: Pew Research, June 27-July 4
UKRAINE, NATO: Economist/YouGov, July 2–5

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

G. Mennen “Soapy” Williams (D) was the last Democrat to win six two-year terms as governor of Michigan….. He was governor 1949-1961. In 1963, the state’s gubernatorial term was changed to four years…. His nickname “Soapy” came from his grandfather’s founding of the Mennen brand of men’s products….. After leaving office, Williams served as assistant secretary of state for African Affairs, U.S. ambassador to the Philippines and as chief justice of the Michigan State Supreme Court. 

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