LUNCHTIME POLITICS: DeSantis Beats Trump in New Hampshire – New York, Wisconsin, New Mexico – Energy and Biden

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, June 23, 2022

Down 1 from a week ago

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 35% (Quinnipiac) to 43% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 57% today (up 1 from a week ago), putting him at 17 points net negative. Note: Average 57% disapproval for Biden is the highest we’ve ever recorded.

Among voters statewide

General election:

  • Ron DeSantis (R) over Joe Biden (D): +1 (47-46)
  • Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (50-43)

RON’S COMMENT: These numbers are good for DeSantis and bad for Trump. The Florida governor is doing much better in this key state than Trump––which gives him an electability perception advantage over the former president. The electability issue could be crucial in 2024 Republican primaries should DeSantis and Trump run against one another…. Biden carried New Hampshire in 2020 by 7 points…. Among all voters in New Hampshire, Biden now has a 56% negative rating and VP Harris has an even worse 64% negative rating. Also: Only 54% of Democrats in the state want Biden to run again, which is down from 74% a year ago.
Republican presidential primary (first choice):

  • Ron DeSantis: 39%
  • Donald Trump: 37%
  • Nikki Haley: 6%
  • Mike Pence: 5%
  • Kristi Noem: 2%
  • Ted Cruz: 2%
  • Others: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: This New Hampshire Republican primary poll is spectacular news for DeSantis, and underscores the serious threat he poses to Trump for the GOP nomination…. DeSantis also beats Trump 30-24 among second choice votes.

SENATE 2022 
Among voters statewide


  • John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +6 (50-44)

RON’S COMMENT: This is a key Senate race in an open seat now held by a Republican. Fetterman has a smaller lead in this poll (6 points) than in the previous Suffolk poll (9 points), but still holds the edge…. This poll has Oz getting 16% of Black voters older than 50; Democrats doubt Oz can hold all 16%…. While the political environment favors Republicans in Pennsylvania, GOP candidates seem to be falling short in voter appeal.

  • Mandela Barnes (D) over Sen. Ron Johnson (R): +2 (46-44)
  • Sarah Godlewsk (D) over Sen. Ron Johnson (R): +2 (45-43)
  • Tom Nelson (D) over Sen. Ron Johnson (R): +1 (44-43)
  • Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Alex Lasry (D): +3 (45-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Republican incumbent Johnson has his hands full. Three Democrats are now defeating him by 2 points and one by 1 point…. Johnson’s rating is 37% favorable/46% unfavorable…. Barnes has a 4-point edge over Lasry in Democratic primary polling.

Among voters statewide


  • Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +3 (49-46)

RON’S COMMENT: This is the second poll showing Democrat Shapiro ahead by a modest-to-small margin. Shapiro does a little better among his fellow Democrats (89%) than Mastriano does among his fellow Republicans (85%), but Mastriano wins independents by a sizable 18 points…. As we said in the Senate race, the political environment favors Republicans in Pennsylvania, but GOP candidates seem to be falling short in voter appeal.

  • Gov. Tony Evers (D) over Rebecca Kleefisch (R): +4 (47-43) 
  • Gov. Tony Evers (D) over Tim Michels (R): +7 (48-41)
  • Gov. Tony Evers (D) over Kevin Nicholson (R): +8 (48-40)

RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Evers has a lead over all his Republican challengers, but he’s not out of the woods. Kleefisch runs close and Michels and Nicholson hold him under 50%…. GOP primary polling has Kleefisch and Michels neck-and-neck…. Evers’ job rating is net-positive, but a lackluster 48% approve/45% disapprove.
Gov. Michelle Lujan-Grisham(D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +3 (45-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats have a fight on their hands in this blue-leaning state.

  • Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +24 (52-28)
  • Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Andrew Giuliani (R): +26 (56-30)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Hochul posts large leads over these two Republicans, despite what Democrats complain is a meh campaign on their candidate’s part.

  • Lee Zeldin: 25%
  • Andrew Giuliani: 23%
  • Wilson: 13%
  • Astorino: 8%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Zeldin and Giuliani in a tight contest. Giuliani is doing better here than in previous polls. The primary is Tuesday.

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of how President Biden is handling …. Energy? 
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 52%
RON’S COMMENT: 68% of Democrats, 13% of Republicans and––here’s the killer––only 27% of independents approve of Biden’s handling of the energy issue.

Among adults nationwide

Q: Do you think …?

The national economy is…
Getting better: 23%
Staying the same: 22%
Getting worse: 52%

The financial situation in your household  is…
Getting better: 19%
Staying the same: 38%
Getting worse: 40% 

COMMENT: A majority of Americans (52%) think the national economy is getting worse, while fewer (40%), but still a plurality, think their own financial situation is getting worse. 

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Granite State Poll/UNH, June 16-20
ECONOMY: American Research Group, June 17–20
PENNSYLVANIA: Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D), June 12-19
WISCONSIN: Marquette, June 14-20
NEW YORK: WNYT/SurveyUSA, June 15-20
NEW MEXICO: PPP (D), June 13-14.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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