Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, May 31, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 40%
Down 2 from last week
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 36% (Reuters) to 44% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as last week), putting him 14 points net negative.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters nationwide
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +2 (44-42-9)
- Elon Musk over Mark Cuban: +9 (29-20-27)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump vs. Biden––this is the second national poll in the last two weeks that has Trump leading by a small margin. Note that 9% volunteered they’d vote for someone else…. Musk vs. Cuban––in this unlikely match-up, 27% volunteered they’d vote for someone else…. Twitter: 40% of voters nationally support Musk buying Twitter, while 22% oppose.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
NORTH CAROLINA
GENERAL ELECTION
Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +2 (44-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Previous polling has shown Budd with wider leads. The seat is now held by retiring Sen. Richard Burr (R).
MISSOURI
REPUBLCIAN PRIMARY
Eric Greitens: 26%
Vicky Hartzler: 23%
Eric Schmitt: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: This is the second poll putting Greitens in the lead. There’s still time for more movement, however, since the primary is Aug. 2.
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
CONNECTICUT
GENERAL ELECTION
Gov. Ned Lamont (D) over Bob Stefanowski (R): +8 (51-43)
RON’S COMMENT: A big gender gap in this race: Lamont wins women by 24, and Stefanowski wins men by 10. Lamont’s job rating is 52% approve/38% disapprove.
REDUCING GASOLINE PRICES
Among voters nationwide
% = Support/ Oppose
- The federal government banning price gouging, which is when energy companies charge too high of a price for their goods and services during times of high demand: 77%/ 12%
- The federal government asking domestic (U.S.) producers to pump more oil: 74% /12%
- A temporary break from paying federal taxes on gasoline: 74%/ 15%
- The federal government releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 62%/ 20%
- The federal government opening up public lands for oil drilling: 59%/ 28%
- Suspending requirements that oil shipped between U.S. ports be transported on U.S.-built and owned vessels, and operated by U.S. crews, which makes shipping more expensive: 51%/ 24%
- Suspending requirements for gasoline to be blended with ethanol, which is more expensive but is said to be more sustainable: 50%/ 27%
- The federal government asking oil-exporting countries (such as Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela) to pump more oil: 47%/ 34%
UFOs
Among voters nationwide
Do you believe that extraterrestrial life (life outside of Earth) exists?
Yes, definitely: 25%
Yes, probably: 37%
Probably not: 14%
Definitely not: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: A total of 62% of voters say they extraterrestrial life exists, either definitely or probably. Men more than women agree (69% vs. 55%). People 18-34 agree more than those 65 and older (75% vs. 52%).
Do you believe that the U.S. government has kept the existence of unidentified flying objects (UFOs) from the public?
Yes, definitely: 41%
Yes, probably: 38%
Probably not: 9%
Definitely not: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: A total of 79% of voters say the U.S. government has definitely or probably kept the existence of UFOs from the public. Majorities of Republicans and Democrats agree, with Republicans 5 points more so.
HOW DID THE POLLS DO?
Georgia Republican primary May 24
Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary; Brian Kemp over David Perdue margins:
- Actual results: Kemp +52
- Landmark poll: Kemp +30 (off by 22 points)
- Trafalgar (R) poll: Kemp +14 (off by 38 points)
- Fox 5/InsiderAdvantage poll: Kemp +14 (off by 38 points)
ANALYSIS: While these three final public polls in the Georgia gubernatorial primary had Kemp ahead by double-digit margins, none of them caught the full magnitude of Kemp’s gigantic 52-point winning margin.
- Landmark came closest, showing a 30-point lead.
- Both Trafalgar (R) and InsiderAdvantage missed the extent of Kemp’s win, both polls showing him leading by only 14 points.
- InsiderAdvantage actually showed Kemp’s margin slightly dwindling in the last weeks of the race. They had Kemp ahead by 16 points in their poll completed May 1 and then had his lead down to 14 points in their May 20-22 poll.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Since World War II, there has been three U.S. House Speakers from Massachusetts, two Democrats and one Republican. The Democrats were John McCormack and Tip O’Neill. Who was the Republican Speaker from Massachusetts?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MISSOURI: Trafalgar (R), May 16-18
CONNECTICUT: Quinnipiac, May 19-23
NORTH CAROLINA: Civitas/Cygnal, May 21-22
PRESIDENT, UFOs: Emerson, May 24-25
REDUCING GASOLINE PRICES: Politico/Morning Consult, May 20-22
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
Joseph Martin (R-MA). He was Speaker 1947-49, 1953-55.
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