Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, May 24, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 44% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday), putting him at 12 points net negative.
PRIMARIES TODAY: Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Texas runoffs, Minnesota House special election
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide
NORTH CAROLINA
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +9 (46-37)
RON’S COMMENT: This isn’t good for Biden, who ran a competitive race in North Carolina in 2020 when Trump beat him by a narrow 50-49 margin…. Biden’s approval rating in the state is a dismal 35%…. North Carolina has been a swing state in presidential elections since 2008, when Obama carried it by a tiny margin.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
NORTH CAROLINA
GENERAL ELECTION
Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +8 (47-39-2)
RON’S COMMENT: The fight for this open seat, now held by retiring Sen. Richard Burr (R), favors GOP retention. Budd wins men by 12 and Beasley wins women by 4. Budd wins non-college grads by 20 points and Beasley wins college grads by 4.
ALABAMA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Katie Britt: 37%
Mo Brooks: 25%
Michael Durant: 24%
Others: 3%
RON’C COMMENT: This poll was taken by a PAC that’s supporting Britt…. If nobody breaks 50% in today’s GOP primary, there will be a June 21 runoff. This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R).
UTAH
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Sen. Mike Lee: 49%
Becky Edwards: 19%
Ally Isom: 6%
Undecided: 26%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Lee, a strong conservative who has Trump’s endorsement, has a big lead. But he falls short of a majority in this poll. That, plus lackluster job ratings, gives his opposition a reason to hope. Edwards is considered a moderate…. Looking toward the general election, Democrats won’t be nominating a candidate and most Democratic voters are expected to support Evan McMullin, an independent.
NEW MEXICO
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Mark Ronchetti: 45%
Rebecca Dow: 17%
Others: 18%
Undecided: 21%
RON’S COMMENT: Ronchetti is a former TV weatherman who lost a Senate bid in 2020. Dow is a state legislator. The winner of the June 7th GOP primary will face Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.
OKLAHOMA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY/SPECIAL ELECTION
Markwayne Mullin: 38%
TW Shannon: 16%
Nathan Dahm: 6%
Others: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe’s open seat from which he’s resigning. Mullin, a Congressman from the 2nd district and a mixed martial arts fighter, posts a wide lead. Shannon is a former state House speaker. Polling in the race has shown Mullin with a consistent lead…. The primary winner takes on Democrat Kendra Horn, a former one-term member of Congress…. The state’s other Senate seat is also up this year; the incumbent is Sen. Jim Lankford (R).
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
GEORGIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Fox 5/ Landmark = Average
Gov. Brian Kemp: 52%/ 60% = 56
David Perdue: 38%/ 30% = 34
Others: 7%/ 6% = 6.5
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Kemp has polled above 50% in nine straight polls…. Donald Trump has been rallying for Perdue and Mike Pence has been helping Kemp. Primary is today.
- The Landmark poll finds the GOP primary race for Secretary of State to be very close. Jody Hice, the Trump candidate, leads incumbent Brad Raffensperger by a slim 39-38 margin.
ALABAMA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Gov. Kay Ivey: 45%
Tim James: 18%
Lunda Blanchard: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Ivey holds a wide lead, but is below the 50% mark she needs to clear to avoid a runoff…. Primary is today…. Yolanda Flowers is currently the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
JUSTICE SAMUEL ALITO
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of …. Samuel Alito?
Favorable: 32%
Unfavorable: 33%
Unsure: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: 21% of Democrats, 46% of Republicans and 31% of independents have a favorable opinion about the Supreme Court Justice who wrote the leaked draft opinion overturning Roe vs. Wade…. For comparison, Chief Justice John Roberts’ rating is 34% favorable/32% unfavorable among all voters.
GUN LAWS
Among voters nationwide
More or less strict: In general, do you feel the laws covering the sale of handguns should be made more strict than they are now?
Make gun laws more strict: 49%
No change: 28%
Make gun laws less strict: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: 26% of Republicans, 73% of Democrats, 40% of independents, 39% of men and 53% of women want to make the sale of handguns stricter…. Worthy of note: 63% of White women with college degrees favor stricter gun laws, while only 30% of White men without college degrees do.
Buffalo mass shooting: Do you think that stricter gun laws would or would not have prevented this mass shooting?
Would have prevented shooting: 31%
Would NOT have prevented shooting: 44%
Not sure: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: 17% of Republicans, 50% of Democrats, 22% of independents, 27% of men and 34% of women say stricter gun laws would have prevented the Buffalo mass shooting.
VOTER ENTHUSIASM
Among voters nationwide
Compared to voting in previous Congressional election years, are you more or less enthusiastic about voting in this year’s election?
More enthusiastic: 30%
Less enthusiastic: 19%
About the same: 36%
RON’S COMMENT: Here’s the killer data point for Democrats––only 30% of Biden voters say they’re more enthusiastic about voting, while 47% of Trump voters say so.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Between 1872 and 1998, Georgia only elected Democratic governors. Since 1998, the state has only elected Republican governors. Who was the most recent Democratic governor of Georgia?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NORTH CAROLINA: ECU, May 19-20
UTAH: Deseret News/Hinckley Institute/Dan Jones, May 7-13
NEW MEXICO: Albuquerque Journal, May 15-19
ALABAMA: McLaughlin (R)/ForestPAC, May 16-19
OKLAHOMA: Sooner Poll, April 25-May 11.
VOTER ENTHUSIASM, GUN LAWS, ALITO: The Economist/YouGov, May 15-17
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
Gov. Roy Barnes. He was the most recent Democratic governor of Georgia. Elected in 1998, he was defeated for re-election in 2002 and lost a comeback bid in 2010.
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