Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, May 16, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Down 1 from Tuesday
Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Monmouth) to 42% (Reuters, Economist, NBC, Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (up 1 from Tuesday), putting him at 13 points net negative.
- A new Monmouth Univ. poll finds that only 18% of U.S. adults believe the country is going in the right direction and a huge 79% say it’s gotten off on the wrong track.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
NORTH CAROLINA
GENERAL ELECTION
Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +7 (48-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Republican Budd is the favorite for his party’s nomination and Beasley is the presumed Democratic nominee. Holding this seat is essential for Republicans if they want to gain Senate control. Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) isn’t running again.
PENNSYLVANIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Mehmet Oz: 32%
Kathy Barnette: 27%
David McCormick: 26%
Jeff Bartos: 6%
Carla Sands: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: Oz maintains a lead in the Emerson poll taken this weekend. Oz has Trump’s support…. Oz trails McCormick in the suburbs by 5 points, and Barnette tops Oz in rural areas by 3 points. In urban/city areas, Oz leads McCormick by 5…. Oz gets 32% of women and 25% of men; Barnette gets 24% of men and women; McCormick does much better with men than women (28% vs. 13%)…. The Republican winner will likely face Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in November. Fetterman is recovering from a recent stroke…. The primary for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is tomorrow.
- Reportedly, a tracking poll by Osage Research (R) on May 12-13 found McCormick with 25% and Barnette and Oz each tied at 24%.
MISSOURI
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Eric Schmitt: 29%
Vicki Hartzler: 23%
Eric Greitens: 21%
RON’S COMMENT: Most Republican leaders are happy to see both Schmitt and Hartzler running ahead of former Gov. Greitens, who was forced to resign the governorship in 2018 over sexual misconduct and campaign finance allegations. Primary is Aug. 2.
ALABAMA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Katie Britt: 32%
Mo Brooks: 23%
Mike Durant: 21%
Others: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Britt, Sen. Richard Shelby’s former chief of staff, ahead. U.S. Rep. Brooks, who was the Trump candidate, lost the former president’s endorsement. To the surprise of pundits, Brooks has improved his poll position since Trump bailed on him…. This is for Shelby’s seat, who is retiring. Primary is May 24.
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
TEXAS
GENERAL ELECTION
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +7 (46-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Abbott maintains a lead.
MINNESOTA
GENERAL ELECTION
Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Scott Jensen (R): +5 (44-39-4)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Gov. Walz leads Republican Jensen, who is a physician and a former state senator, by a modest margin.
PENNSYLVANIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Doug Mastriano: 42%
Lou Barletta: 24%
Bill McSwain: 13%
David White: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: Mastriano has consistently led GOP primary polling since mid-April. On Saturday, Trump jumped on the bandwagon and endorsed him. Mastriano has been part of the movement trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election results.
ALABAMA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Gov. Kay Ivey: 40%
Tim James: 18%
Lyndy Blanchard: 15%
Others: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: GOP Gov. Ivey, the favorite, holds a lead in the Republican primary, but the field is leading her 44-40. If Ivey fails to top 50% in the May 24 primary, there will be a runoff on June 21.
NEW MEXICO
GENERAL ELECTION
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +4 (47-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Republican Ronchetti is a former TV weatherman and 2020 Senate candidate (he lost 52-46). Though handicappers rate the race safe or likely Democratic, this poll indicates that it could be more competitive than they’re now expecting.
MAINE RATINGS
Among voters statewide
% = Favorable / Unfavorable
- Sen. Angus King (I): 61%/29%
- Sen. Susan Collins (R): 52%/44%
- Gov. Janet Mills (D): 53%/44%
ABORTION
Among voters nationwide
Would you call yourself “pro-life” or “pro-choice”?
- Pro-choice: 34%
- Pro-life: 28%
- Both pro-choice and pro-life: 23%
- Neither: 7%
- Not sure: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Note that nearly four out of 10 voters say they are both pro-life and pro-choice, or neither or not sure…. 56% of Democrats are pro-choice and another 22% are both pro-choice and pro-life…. 55% of Republicans are pro-life and another 23% are both pro-choice and pro-life…. 34% of independents are pro-choice and another 28% are both pro-choice and pro-life.
- This poll also finds that 27% of voters nationwide say abortion should never be banned and 18% say it should always be banned.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NORTH CAROLINA: CBS 17/The Hill/Emerson College, May 7-9
MISSOURI: Remington Research Group (R), May 11-12
PENNSYLVANIA: Emerson, May 14-15
TEXAS: Dallas Morning News/UT, May 2-10
ALABAMA: AL Daily News/Cygnal, May 6-7
MINNESOTA: KSTP/SurveyUSA, May 5-10
MAINE: Pan Atlantic, April 21-May 5
NEW MEXICO: KOB/SurveyUSA, April 29-May 7
ABORTION: The Economist/YouGov
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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