Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, May 10, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (IBD/TIPP) to 46% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 1 from Friday), putting him at 11 points net negative.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
PENNSYLVANIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Mehmet Oz: 25%
Kathy Barnette: 23%
Dave McCormick: 22%
Others: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Oz on top with Barnette slightly above McCormick. Barnette has recently moved up; she’s an army veteran and Fox commentator. There’s one more week to go and it will be a vicious battle to the end. Trump supports Oz. Primary is May 17.
ARKANSAS
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Sen. John Boozman (R): 45%
Jake Bequette: 19%
Jan Morgan: 17%
Others: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: Republican incumbent Boozman leads, but he’s running under 50%––which means he could be forced into a runoff. Bequette and Morgan are running to the right of conservative Boozman, who has Trump’s endorsement. Primary is May 24.
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
MASSACHUSETTS
GENERAL ELECTION
Maura Healy (D) over Geoff Diehl (R): +28 (59-31)
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like Democrats will pick up this open seat. Republican Gov. Charlie Baker is not seeking re-election, although one poll showed that if he ran again as an independent, he’d lead both Democrat Healy and pro-Trumper Diehl.
KANSAS
GENERAL ELECTION
Derek Schmidt (R) over Gov. Laura Kelly (D): +4 (47-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats are struggling to hold the governorship in this conservative state. This poll was taken by a Republican firm. Schmidt is the state AG. Democrat Kelly lucked out in 2018 when she had to face controversial Republican Kris Kobach in the general election, who she beat 48-43.
PENNSYLVANIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Doug Mastriano: 28%
Lou Barletta: 18%
Dave White: 15%
William McSwain: 14%
Others: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: Mastriano has pulled into first place with Barletta, White and McSwain struggling to break out of the pack.
ARKANSAS
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Sarah Huckabee Sanders: 73%
Francis Washburn: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Former Trump press secretary and daughter of former Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sanders has a commanding lead in the GOP primary. Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson is term-limited.
ARKANSAS
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Chris Jones: 60%
Others: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic primary frontrunner Jones is a former executive director of the Arkansas Regional Innovation Hub.
NEW YORK CITY: MAYOR ADAMS
Among voters citywide
Mayor Eric Adams (D) Job Rating:
43% approve/37% disapprove
RON’S COMMENT: Adams does better among Blacks (54% approve/23% disapprove) than Whites (41% approve/42% disapprove) or Hispanics (39% approve/40% disapprove)…. Interestingly, the crime issue is hurting Adams, a former police officer. His handling of crime gets him a net-negative 37% approve/54% disapprove rating. Crime is seen as the city’s most important issue, by far.
UK PARTY POLITICS
Among voters in Great Britain
Party preference (based on average of three most recent polls):
- Labour Party: 40%
- Conservative party: 34%
- Liberal Democrats: 10%
- Green: 5%
- SNP: 4%
- Reform: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: PM Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is running behind Labour. Conservatives now have 358 seats in the House of Commons, Labour has 199, SNP has 35, Liberal Democrats have 13 and other parties have 33. The next general election will likely be held sometime between May 2024 or January 2025.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Who was the only U.S. President from Pennsylvania?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: Trafalgar (R), May 6-8
MASSACHUSETTS: EMERSON, May 2-4
ARKANSAS: Hendrix College, May 2
KANSAS: WPA (R), April 26-27
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
James Buchanan. He was the only U.S. President from Pennsylvania. He was born in the state and represented it in the U.S. House and Senate.
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