Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, May 6, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (CNN, Politico) to 46% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (up 2 from Tuesday), putting him at 11 points net negative.
- The new Economist poll shows 37% of voters feel confident in Biden’s ability to handle an international crisis and 48% feel uneasy about him. To make matters worse: Only 25% of independents feel confident in Biden’s ability to handle a crisis versus 59% who feel uneasy.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters in each state
PENNSYLVANIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Mehmet Oz: 18%
David McCormick: 16%
Kathy Barnette: 12%
Carla Sands: 5%
Jeff Bartos: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump has endorsed Oz, who is in a tight race with McCormick. Barnette is also not that far behind the top two…. Oz’s rating among Republicans is a net-negative 29% favorable/41% unfavorable …. McCormick’s rating among Republicans is a net-positive 31% favorable/17% unfavorable…. Primary is May 17…. This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R).
PENNSYLVANIA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
John Fetterman: 53%
Conor Lamb: 14%
Others: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: Fetterman is clobbering Lamb for the Democratic nomination. Primary is May 17…. This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R).
NORTH CAROLINA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Ted Budd: 53%
Pat McCrory: 29%
Mark Walker: 8%
Marjorie Eastman: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows U.S. Rep. Budd pulling away in the primary. He’s endorsed by Trump. McCrory is a former governor…. Cheri Beasley is the Democratic candidate…. Primary is May 17…. They’re vying for the seat now held by retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr.
NEVADA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Adam Laxalt: 50%
Sam Brown: 27%
Others: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Laxalt, who has Trump’s endorsement, posts a wide lead in the June 14 Senate primary.
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
TEXAS
GENERAL ELECTION
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +11 (48-37)
RON’S COMMENT: Little has changed in this poll over the past two months…. Abbott’s job rating is now 47% approve/41% disapprove. O’Rourke is 38% favorable/47% unfavorable.
FLORIDA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Charlie Crist: 52%
Nikki Fried: 19%
Annette Taddeo: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: Former Gov. Crist has a big lead over the primary field. The winner gets to face GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis in November.
PENNSYLVANIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Douglas Mastriano: 20%
William McSwain: 12%
Lou Barletta: 11%
David White: 8%
Others: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: A third of Republicans are still undecided, and the GOP primary vote is fractured, but Mastriano leads this poll with McSwain and Barletta fighting for second place. Primary is May 17.
NEVADA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Joe Lombardo: 39%
Joey Gilbert: 16%
Dean Heller: 16%
Others: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Lombardo, who owns the crime issue, is polling more votes than Gilbert and Heller combined. Heller is a former U.S. Senator and Gilbert is a lawyer and former boxer. Primary is June 14.
NEW YORK
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Gov. Kathy Hochul: 45%
Tom Suozzi: 12%
Jumaane Williams: 7%
Others: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Hochul is in a slump, but she still leads the June 28 Democratic primary field by a wide margin. The recent campaign finance scandal involving her appointed lieutenant governor, who resigned the post, has not helped her public image; it’s also given Republicans an issue.
NEW YORK
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Lee Zeldin: 26%
Andrew Giuliani: 18%
Rob Astorino: 16%
Others: 22%
RON’COMMENT: U.S. Rep. Zeldin, who is the choice of the state GOP leadership, leads the Republican primary in this poll. Giuliani, son of the former mayor, is in second place. Primary is June 28…. The best chance Republicans have to win the governorship is if former Gov. Andrew Cuomo gets into the race as an independent and splits the Democratic vote. Polling shows he’d get 16% in a three-way contest.
REPUBLICANS: FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable / Unfavorable
- Donald Trump: 41%/56%
- Mike Pence: 40%/50%
- Ron DeSantis: 41%/40%
- Nikki Haley: 34%/34%
- Ted Cruz: 38%/51%
- Mike Pompeo: 31%/37%
- Tim Scott: 28%/25%
- Madison Cawthorn: 16%/34%
RON’S COMMENT: Only DeSantis and Scott have net-positive ratings among all voters, albeit by slight margins. Haley is even.
- Among all voters nationwide, Trump continues to have a high negative rating (56%).
- Among Republicans, Trump’s negative is 19%, but among independents it’s 57%.
- Among Republicans, Cawthorn is 19% favorable/17% unfavorable.
BIDEN ISSUE APPROVAL
Among U.S. adults nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling_______?
% = Approve / Disapprove
- The economy: 34%/66%
- Immigration: 34%/66%
- Helping the middle class: 36%/64%
- Coronavirus pandemic: 51%/48%
- Situation in Ukraine: 46%/54%
RON’S COMMENT: The economy and immigration are seriously dragging Biden down, according to this CNN poll. He does best on the pandemic, but is net negative on handling Ukraine. Also:
- 55% of Americans believe Biden’s policies have made the economy worse, while only 19% say better.
- 77% rate the economy poor and only 23% rate it good.
- 81% say the U.S. government is doing “too little” to reduce inflation.
- 62% say the U.S. government is doing “too little” to enforce immigration laws.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: Franklin & Marshall, April 20-May 1
NORTH CAROLINA: Trafalgar (R): April 23-25
NEVADA: The Hill/Emerson, April 30-May 2
NEW YORK: The Hill/Emerson, May 1-3
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, May 2-3
TEXAS: UNIV. OF TEXAS, April 14-22
FAVORABILITY RATINGS: The Economist/YouGov, April 30-May 3
BIDEN ISSUE APPROVAL: CNN, April 28-May 1
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment